How can you conclude its a close race, when PPPC is ahead by 53,000 votes.
As per SN. In 2105 Region 4
APNU registered 112,362 votes
PPPC registered 69,986 votes
A difference of 42,376 votes
APNU needs almost 10,000 votes to reach PPP. and base on the trend of this election, PPP has gain significantly outside their support base, so chances are, they will gain more in Region 4
Looking back at the last LGE, PPP make inroads into APNU strong hold.
The smaller parties is out.
Hope this helps.