You are ignoring on important piece of data, the AFC has no support base left. They have been exterminated in Berbice.
Anything x 0 =
Do the Math.
The support base which the AFC has is that many former PPP supporters no longer wish to support them.
Now where is your evidence that the AFC lacks support? They cannot attract crowds? Well they didn't in 2011 and we all know what happened then.
At this point in time, neither the PPP nor the AFC know what the true situation in PPP strongholds are.
And even if people don't vote AFC, suppose they stay home and the PPP vote tumbles to 150k, and the PNC is able to excite their voters that the end of Indo KKK (ooops I meant PPP) rule is near at end and turns out 12k more voters.
It will be President Granger and all of you racists who screamed "ahbe time now, black man time done" will hope that Granger isn't going to be as vengeful as you lot certainly were.
Don't rule it out as every PPP supporter who stays home is a vote for APNU.