The PPP received 27,000 more votes than APNU in the 2011 elections. This is a relatively wide margin. Voter turnout in region 6 was just 66%. With greater voter turnout in areas that traditionally support the PPP we can expect the party to easily cross the 50% mark. The AFC will not pull as much votes as they did in the last elections. Nagamootoo and Ramjattan have alienated themselves from voters because of their shameless association with the PNC> APNU ain't going anywhere.
PPP votes in 2001. Down from 1997.
PPP votes in 2006. Down from 2001.
PPP votes in 2011. Down from 2006.
The PPP has lost 25% of the votes that it had in 1997.
PNC UP in 2001 compared to 1997.
PNC down in 2006 vs. 2001.
PNC UP in 2011 vs. 2006. PNC has lost 15% of the votes that it had in 1997.
Looking at this trend the PPP is in deeper trouble than is the PNC. Now add to that the fact that APNU stands a much better chance of winning in 2015/16 than it has ever had and we might see a galvanizing of its support base, united in hope that their oppression under PPP rule might be at end.
If I were the PPP I would accept the fact that a loss to the PNC is no longer as improbable that it once was. The PPP support has fallen to the level that the PNC received in 2001. Indeed if the trend of declining support for the PPP continues and it gets 150k, all the PNC will need to do is to gain 12k more votes. In 2011 they added 26k over their 2006 total.
As the Indian vote declines, and also increasingly strays from the PPP and as Africans and most mixed voters remain hostile to the PPP and as most Amerindian remain indifferent to coast lander politics the PPP is seeing the sand being washed away from its feet as it stumbles along the beach.