Since 1964, did the PNC or any of its variants - PNC R - APNU, JOPP, etc ever win more than 51%? or even as low as 44%?
The PPP didnt get 51% last time. Its main base, Indians, are fleeing in higher numbers than others. Also Indians are not as loyal to the PPP as they once were.
The Burnham constitution, of which the PPP is so proud, says that the plurality is all that is needed. If APNU gets 40.8% and the PPP 40.6% the APNU forms the government.
In 2001 the PNC won 166k votes. In 2011 the PPP won 166k votes. Since 1997 the PPP has lost votes in EVERY election. APNU was able to arrest the decline of 2006, adding 26k votes in 2011.
The PNC is 27k votes off its peak in 2001. The PPP is off 55k off its peak in 1997.
While the most likely outcome will be a PPP plurality with further declines in support and in % of votes received, a PNC victory isnt impossible. In fact the PNC can find 27k more votes in G/town, among the disillusioned who havent voted since 2001 and the young who never bothered to vote.