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Reply to "Can Moses Nagamootoo as the AFC Presidential Candidate Swing 10%?"

Originally Posted by JoKer:

The PPP needs to lose 10pc of the national vote in order to lose the Presidency? How would this be possible?

 

Jokes:

 

The PPP needs to lose less than 10%---it's more like 6.4%

 

Let's look at the results in the last election:

 

PPP...48.6%

 

PNC...40.8%

 

AFC...10.3%

 

 

Now, if the AFC under Moses can get 15%---that's 4.7% more than in 2011, and let's assume that they pull all of that 4.7% from the PPP, then you'll have:

 

PPP...43.9%

 

PNC...40.8%

 

AFC...15.0%

 

So the PPP will still control the executive branch.

 

For the PNC to control the executive branch they will need to increase their % by 1.7%--- from 40.8% to 42.5%---and they will have to pull that 1.7% away from the PPP.

 

That brings us to:

 

PPP...42.2%

 

PNC...42.5% = PNC win

 

AFC...15.0%

 

 

CONCLUSION:

 

* Assuming the same turnout

 

* If the AFC gets 15% of the vote

 

* If the PNC gets an additional 1.7%

 

THEN THE PNC WILL FORM THE NEXT GOVERNMENT!

 

A vote for Moses and the AFC is a vote for the PNC to form the next government.

 

Rev

FM
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