There is only one living politician at this time who can cause the PPP to lose more votes - MOSES NAGAMOOTOO.
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Ronald:
If Moses is the AFC's presidential candidate and if former speaker Ralph Ramkarran, who was very critical of the PPP when he resigned from the PPP executive committee, were to join the AFC how badly would that hurt the PPP's chances of retaining the presidency ?
BOTTOM LINE:
If a Moses led AFC with a Ramkarran support can draw 20% of the votes and let's assume the PNC holds their 40.8% from the last election, then it's lights out for the PPP(100-20%-40.8% = 39.2%).
NEXT QUESTION:
* Can a PNC/AFC coalition with Granger as President and Moses as Prime Minister defeat the PPP ?
* How about a PNC/AFC colaition with Moses as President and Granger as Prime Minister ?
Which combo is more likely to defeat the PPP ? Granger as Pres/Moses PM or Moses as Pres/Granger PM ?
Rev
Rev:
there is 2 big political assumption that cannot stand up.
1. Ralphie Karran was never popular with the grass roots and thus will not make a difference in the political equation whether he is inside or outside the PPP.
AFC will look good on the books with him but he will not bring any constituent to the AFC.
2. The PNC will lose votes. Afro-Guyanese who did not like the PNC voted for them because of this message that the soldier boys spread - "THE AFC WILL STEAL THE INDIAN VOTES FROM THE PPP AND THIS IS THE ONLY CHANCE FOR BLACKMAN TO RUN AGAIN"
This strategy failed and many afro-Guyanese are regretting they voted PNC when their politics is more aligned to the AFC.
I am convinced the PNC will max out in 2015 at 35%. 35% cannot win an election when the PPP will get 40%.
3. The AFC is still not well organised and does not have a machinery that can generate mass support - trade union, country wide youth movement, country wide women's movement, village captains in all the villages.
4. Guyanese voters are very cautious and will not chnage their votes enmass. Many will change their votes but not 75,000 in 5 years.
The AFC need 75,000 more votes to make a difference.
This 2015 election is the PPP's Presidential victory but with less votes.
The AFC will be gaining seats in parliament while the apnu and ppp will be losing seats.
The big question how will granger deal with the stronger AFC. I honestly do not think granger will be there after 2015 since half of the pnc front bench are retirees and they will be gone by 2015.
The 2015 elections will be MOSES victory.