I think we strayed a bit from the original question. The question remains:
Can Moses Nagamootoo as the AFC Presidential Candidate Swing 10%?
My answer remains:
YES, maybe more than 10% but that depends on the political work on the ground.
Ronald:
As long as the AFC exists it will always be perceived as the 3rd party in Guyana. The two major parties will forever be the PPP and the PNC(they now call themselves apnu).
Now, in Guyana's election history the largest percentage of votes a 3rd party has ever received was the 12.4% the United Force got in the 1964 election.
In 2006 the AFC under Trotman received 8.1% and in 2011 under Ramjattan they received 10.3%
The increase from 8.1 to 10.3% was due mainly to the Nagamootoo presence.
In the next election, if Nagamootoo were the AFC's presidential candidate the best the AFC can expect would be equalling the 12.4% the UF received in 1964.
But as poster Henry said---the Nagamootoo novelty has dissipated---he has fired his bullet--and the AFC came up with only 10.3% in the 2011 election.
By the time the next election rolls around, Moses Nagamootoo will be all washed up politically---he'll be perceived by the electorate as a mean, bitter, sourpuss and a loser.
Ramo will be re-elected president.
Will he win by a majority ?
Who cares ?
THE MILK AND HONEY WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW IN THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH AND GUYANA'S ECONOMY WILL BE FIRING ON ALL CYLINDERS.
Rev
Rev AL said "As long as the AFC exists it will always be perceived as the 3rd party in Guyana. The two major parties will forever be the PPP and the PNC(they now call themselves apnu)."
History has demonstrated that even the British empire can fall. So can the PPP and PNC.
Moses only spent a few weeks on the AFC campaign.
This time he would have walked the country for 5 years with the AFC. There will have a significant impact if the real political grounding - Walter Rodney style is done.
The AFC is not the UF, the UF was seen as a tool of the "Portuguese bourgeoisie" and thus it was never destined to score more than 12%.
The AFC target voter is the working class primarily, the farmers, the peasants, the workers.
Ramu may be elected or may be not? Let us leave up to the voters.
What I who definitely is the AFC will gain more votes in 2015, while the PPP and PNC/APNU will score less.
How much less is dependent on the political work of the AFC.