The PPP needs to lose 10pc of the national vote in order to lose the Presidency? How would this be possible?
Jokes:
The PPP needs to lose less than 10%---it's more like 6.4%
Let's look at the results in the last election:
PPP...48.6%
PNC...40.8%
AFC...10.3%
Now, if the AFC under Moses can get 15%---that's 4.7% more than in 2011, and let's assume that they pull all of that 4.7% from the PPP, then you'll have:
PPP...43.9%
PNC...40.8%
AFC...15.0%
So the PPP will still control the executive branch.
For the PNC to control the executive branch they will need to increase their % by 1.7%--- from 40.8% to 42.5%---and they will have to pull that 1.7% away from the PPP.
That brings us to:
PPP...42.2%
PNC...42.5% = PNC win
AFC...15.0%
CONCLUSION:
* Assuming the same turnout
* If the AFC gets 15% of the vote
* If the PNC gets an additional 1.7%
THEN THE PNC WILL FORM THE NEXT GOVERNMENT!
A vote for Moses and the AFC is a vote for the PNC to form the next government.
Rev
Welcome back Joker:
But there is some unsubstantiated assumption here:
1. The PNC has maxed out at 40% and they do not have the electoral capability to gain 1 vote more. Actually the PNC will lose votes in 2015 putting them around 35%.
The AFC will gain above 20% with a Moses Nagamootoo Presidency.
Either way we will still have a Presi Ramu but with a smaller number of seats.
That is why it is important that the PPP talk to the majority opposition NOW!