. If the coalition wins and AFC is given 12 seats, Granger can always say fine, take your 12 Parliamentary votes but I take all the important Government functions and I'm President. What this achieves is te ouster of the PPP, but does it change APNU's governance with AFC still playing spoilers as they were in the last Parliament?
Then what of thew AFC's image as a party of the future?
Just thinking out loud. Now, I'm off to Narissa Palace for the APNU-AFC meeting in So Ozone Park.
No Kari what this achieves is the ouster of APNU. The AFC wants not only seats in parliament, but influence over governance.
We have already seen that it is almost impossible for coalitions of opposition parties to control parliament is meaningless, unless accompanied by control of the executive. That might be why Nagamootoo threw caution to the wind and risked the destruction of the AFC by entering into a pre election alliance with APNU.
So if Granger pulls the stunt which you imply, Nagamootoo takes his 12 seats. If the PPP wins 30 seats (2 fewer than present) they then take over as they would be the political entity with the most seats. There is absolutely no way that the coalition will survive if the AFC is pushed out of governance by APNU.
So Granger will NOT renege on the AFC. Not because he is a man of integrity (he may or may not be). BUT because he knows that he can only remain as president if he adheres to what he agreed to.
This isn't to say that in 2020, if APNU feels that they have made inroads into Indian and/or Amerindian voting blocs, they mightn't toss the AFC. Coalitions are by definition temporary.
BUt he CANNOT do this should APNU AFC win in May. That is unless the PPP really implodes and wins 26 or fewer seats. In which case APNU would have at least 27 (65-26-12) so wouldn't need the AFC's 12 seats.
Do you think that the PPP will only win 26 or fewer seats? I doubt it!