Kari posted:caribny posted:http://www.270towin.com/maps/2...-battleground-states
This is for Kari, stormborn, and others who understand the whole electoral college thing.
Play with it and develop scenarios.
CO, OH, VA, and FL will be the battleground states.
caribny, there's a whole lotta Dem-safe seats that are up for grabs on 270towin by default. I would go with Nate Silver's 538.com scenarios. The Mid-west and some south-west are seats for the Democratic candidate to lose.
At 179 the Democratic candidate needs 91 more electoral college seats. From PA to Wisconsin you're looking at 74 (excluding Iowa) and from Oregon to New Mexico (excluding Arizona) that's another 27. They won't even need FL.
I automatically filled in some states that they call battle grounds. I think that they merely want to give people fun.
Don't see OR, MI,NM, or PA being battlegrounds, unless the Dem candidate is really weak. These states went Dem in 2004, with Kerry, and I don't think that Hillary will be that weak. Similarly MN and WI also go Dem.
I used 1992 as a starting point because the demographics for the electorate has drastically changed. I just don't see CA or NY/NJ/CT going GOP, as happened during the Reagan era.
I am also sending AZ, GA, and NC as GOP, though the Dems winning is a distinct possibility if a very weakened Trump is the candidate.
The big prize is FL. Failing that then she has to win VA, and some combination of OH, and CO. Even though you don't state so explicitly, implicitly you say the same thing.
I think that Hillary will literally have an FL address, parking herself around Orlando/Tampa to get that swing area to vote. She will get Dade, Broward, and the surrounding counties. What favors her is the explosion of the PR population since 2008 as their island has virtually collapsed. They aren't going with Cruz or Trump.
While she can win without FL, having that state will mean that she will be able to start celebrating much earlier.