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Reply to "IMF Report on Guyana April 2016"

Drugb posted:
 I leave the performance of Jagdeo to the economists to debate when compared to other time periods.

These are the time periods of growth in Guyana.

1964-1975.  Strong growth as Burnham invests in infrastructure which was absent during the colonial era.  Among this was the MMA project which you PPP frauds will never give him credit.

1976-1985.  Encouraged by Cheddi Burnham becomes a communist, nationalizes the economy and fails like all communists do.  To his credit at least  he allowed us to flee his mess without going to the extremes of most communist regimes who shoot and kill any who wish to defect.  Everything that Burnham achieved in his first period was wiped out.  His square pegs achieve in "peace" what it takes most nations to attain with a civil war.

1985-1990.  Hoyte takes over and battles with Burnhamists like Hammie Green and Viola B.  Lacking a constituency within the PNC it takes him a while to sideline the hardliners.

1990-92. Hoyte reforms free up the economy and arrests the decline.  These reforms also prevent Jagan from implementing his Marxist nonsense.

1993-2000 Economy continues to grow with expansion of rice, debt forgiveness allowing repair of the neglect of the infrastructure under Burnham.  Hoyte's reforms and foreign investment boosts the economy.

2000-2007. Jagdeo takes over.  The Hoyte reforms have run their course.  Guyana becomes a narco fueled economy with a substantial underground economy and extreme dependence of remittances.  Stagnation in the productive sectors.  Bubble economy develops in real estate due to money laundering and remittances, which drives real estate costs beyond the means of most Guyanese.  Like all bubbles it eventually pops around 2014 when gold prices drop significantly.

2008-2013. Economy grows due to tremendous increase in gold prices. Gold, normally generating less export earnings than sugar, rice, or bauxite, not only surges forward but accounts for over 50% of exports by value.

2014-2016 Gold prices drop. Many smaller producers forced out.  Economy slows and mortgages begin to sour as the underground economy begins to dry up.  Guyana has the SAME economy in 2016 that it had in 1946.

This is a comparison of the various eras of Guyana.  I will give credit to Hoyte for the recovery, and to Jagan for allowing Hoyte's reforms to continue, and for revitalizing the sugar and rice industries. 

Jagdeo has destroyed the sugar industry and much of the manufacturing base, with his laissez faire import strategy which aimed to help his oligarch friends who speculate and not invest.  He also encouraged rice farmers to plant more without assisting them to be sustainable by being able to compete in the Latin American rice markets.  Guyana's costs are high and Jagdeo got the farmers drunk on MadBURRO crack, which was NEVER sustainable.

Even as Jagdeo screams I hear not ONE innovative suggestion from him about what the government ought to do.  His role as the Leader of the Opposition is to develop ideas and to insist that the government consider them.

FM
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