quote:Originally posted by Kari:
You look at 2008 and look at now and see how Americans feel after the 2003 - 2008 crap shoot caused grief in 2009, 2009 and part of 2010. People are hurting yes, but they feel less despair and more hope.
Kari:
The American economy was in shambles in 2008, and so it easy to see why Obama was elected president.
You said that "people feel less despair and more hope today."
QUESTION:
Is the American economy in better shape today than it was when Obama took over in Jan 2009 ?
Let's look at some indicators:
* UNEMPLOYMENT: When Obama assumed the presidency in Jan 2009 the US unemployment rate was 7.6%---it has been 3 years since Obama has been president and the unemployment rate is now 8.3%---yes, it has trended down from 9.1% in Aug 2011 to 8.3% today---but let's say the unemployment rate in November 2012 is above the 7.6% rate when Obama took over the presidency---how will that affect his approval rating ?
Will President Obama's approval rating be 49% or higher on election day if the unemployment rate is higher than when he assumed office ?
* OIL & GAS PRICE: When Obama took over in Jan 2009---oil was 50 dollars a barrel and gasoline was $1.84 a gallon----today oil is $106 a barrel and gasoline is nearly $4.50 a gallon in NY
The saudis recently cut oil production---and A rise in oil and gas prices negatively impacts the economy and also negatively impacts consumer spending and consumer confidence.
Will President Obama's approval rating be 49% or higher on election day if oil and gas prices negatively impacts consumer confidence and consumer spending ?
Remember--Obama approval 49% or more and he wins re-election!
quote:kari wrote:
The last 23 months have seen private sector job growth and the Dow hit 13,000 today.
RE: JOBS
As we all know kari---the jobs numbers are improving---the unemployment rate in Aug 2011 was 9.1%; today it's 8.3%.
But most of the shift in the unemployment rate from 9.1% to 8.3% was due not to improvement in the labor market but to the continued drop in the labor force participation rate.
Millions of Americans have given up looking for work---so they are not counted in the unemployment numbers---the unemployment rate would be much higher if those who have given up looking for work were counted.
RE: LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE
When Obama took over in Jan 2009---the labor force participation rate was 65.7%. Today it has dropped to 63.7%
4.2 million Americans have given up looking for work---that's what that drop in the labor force participation rate tells us.
RE: DOW 13,000
Lemme check--OK the Dow closed at 12,965 yesterday.
As you may know kari--the US markets are rigged---manipulated---give thanks to Bernanke and the Fed---what we have seen recently is another liquidity fuelled market run---the fed providing the liquidity.
The Dow has not risen to nearly 13,000 because the US economy is recovering---the Dow's rise has been as a result of the Fed's printing presses.
RE: THE IMPROVING US ECONOMY
I have a simple question---if the US economy is really improving---why does the Obama 2012 budget still run a $1.3 trillion deficit ?
By the way, after 4 years Obama would have piled on nearly 6 trillion in debt---is he the president America wants to get the country back to financial security ?
quote:kari wrote:
Really the GOP has nothing....nothing....on this President.
To win re-election two things must happen for the President:
1. The economic numbers must be solid/robust in Nov 2012
2. President Obama's approval rating must be 49% or higher on election day
RE: THE KEY INDEPENDENT VOTERS
These are the voters who will decide if Obama wins re-election.
In the 2008 election the majority of independent voters was concerned about the economy----they will have that same concern in Nov 2012.
BOTTOM LINE:
If the unemployment rate is higher than when Obama assumed office in Jan 2009 and if the other economic numbers(consumer confidence, consumer spending rate, gas and oil prices, etc)--if those numbers are weak---then Obama's approval rating will suffer.
CONCLUSION:
Obama can win re-election in Nov 2012---but he will need robust economic numbers and his approval rating must be 49% or higher on election day.
Forget the Republicans---if Obama's approval rating is 49% or higher on election day---good old Jesus can run against him---and good old Jesus will lose.
BUT GOD HELP OBAMA IF HIS APPROVAL RATING IS IN THE MID 40s---it will take a miracle for him to win.
Rev