The election will be decided on who shows up, and the extent to which the PPP succeeds in manipulating the election.
Absolutely! A very small shift in turnout in favor of one side will decide the election.
10k+ Black/Mixed turnout; or
10k+ Indian/Amerindian turnout; or
10k- Indian/Amerindian turnout
will totally upend this election. As the parties are so evenly divided, it becomes almost impossible to do anything but wait for the official results.
The extraordinary thing is that the Coalition seems to be largely holding, except Berbice. Holding the remainder of the AFC plus a slight APNU increase of 10k voters is enough to win for the Coalition.
If by an act of God the PPP wins next month, then this is their last election. PPP voters alone cannot produce majority governments anymore.
You are more contrary than Mary quite Contrary. This what I was saying and also Caribj was saying a couple of months ago. I suggested further that the PPP voters cannot provide the majority government even now and even if the AFC voters return to the fold, the PPP still need to poach.
It is therefore absolutely moronic of them to be dog whistling with bullhorns. If they lose they will eat crow. If they win they will have a hostile demographic constantly looking to veto their authority with violence. They cannot go about their business in secret and in absolute contempt of the people.
Unlike you I'm extremely conservative with my political prognostications and look for even some shred of evidence before I proffer a scenario. Plus, things change pal. Especially in politics leading up to an election. Today's favored horse is tomorrow's underdog.
Also, I follow the trails as they lead me. I'm not dogmatic about elections. Elections are an exercise in math+informed analysis. In Guyana, we have little math to go on.
Anyways, we can now safely say that the AFC has lost its 2011 Corentyne gains. However, we still have this significant upward trend of APNU's votes especially in Region 4.
So yes NOW I'm willing to see a Coalition path to victory. There is no contradiction in following the evidence. Also, that should demonstrate in some small way the sincerity of my postings here on this election.