* The most votes the PNC ever received in a free election was 165,866 back in 2001; the PPP received 210,013 votes in that election.
*
Rev the trend of APNU is increasing strength. They got 114k votes in 2006 and 140k in 2011. The PPPs vote dwindled from 182k to 166k.
APNU began to campaign very late last election. They began much earlier this time, and they have been increasing registration in PNC strongholds.
I expect that APNU will have a higher turnout, maybe even enough to offset AFCs loss of some of its Berbice vote. The AFC will also pick up some Indian votes as well. In addition vote turn out in PPP strongholds might decline.
1997 PPP 221k PNC 161k
2001 PPP 210k PNC 165k
2006 PPP 182k PNC 114k
2011 PPP 166k PNC 140k
The PPP has shown a consistent decline. The PNC only lost votes in 2006 and regained many of these in 2011. The PPP is 55k votes down from its peak. The PNC is only 25k votes off its peak.
If I were you Rev the trends look very bad for he PPP and you should accept it. The Indian vote is declining through migration. The PNC is holding on as more mixed people reach voting age.
The Amerindian vote isn't as important as you think as the interior only contributes 6% of the votes, many of them from mixed people. The PPP only won 52% of the votes last time. Its only Region 1 which is solidly PPP. The PNC won region 7, the AFC Region 8. The PPP won 55% of the vote in Region 9, even though the opposition did almost no campaigning there in 2011. They have done much more this year.
I expect some inroads into the Amerindian vote due to heavier opposition campaigning and several incidents where PPP officials have insulted Amerindians, in addition to widespread fear that the PPP is handing over the interior to the Chinese without any consideration for how this will impact interior dwellers.
You can scream about voting conditions in 1997 and then pretend that nothing has changed well.
1. The Indian vote is smaller
2. The mixed vote is larger, though smaller than what its overall population figures suggest.
3. Your average voter in 2015 knows little and cares little about Forbes Burnham. They are also less ethnically paranoid than their parents, so might be curious about a biracial gov't which is what APNU AFC suggest.
You therefore cannot use data from 20 years ago to predict what the outcome will be in the next 9 days.