Obama needs at least 40% of the white vote to win, in other words at least 60% of those who vote for him must be white or he loses.
RE: NOV 2012 ELECTIONS
Right now it's looking like Romney 53%; Obama 47%
In 2008, Democrats made up 39% of the votes; Republicans 32%; Independents 29%
NO WAY THOSE PERCENTAGES WILL HOLD IN 2012
A recent survey indicated that Democrats are now 33.3%; Republicans 37.6% and Independents 29.1%
ANOTHER SURVEY INDICATED INDEPENDENTS FAVOR ROMNEY 42-32----with 25% undecided.
Most of the undecideds will break for the challenger in November.
ASSUMPTION FOR NOV 2012:
* Democrats 36%; Republicans 36%; Independents 28%
* Obama gets 89% of democrats(same as 2008); 8% of Republicans; 44% of independents---in 2008 Obama got 52% of indep; Mccain 44---assume Independents switch their votes in 2012
OBAMA = (0.89 x 36% Dem) + (0.08 x 36% Rep) + (0.44 x 28% Indep) =
32.04 + 2.88 + 12.32 = 47.24%
NO WAY OBAMA WINS THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE WITH 47.24% OF THE POPULAR VOTES.
Rev