Rev:
Remember 63% of white Americans does not mean 63% of white people will vote for Willard. 63% of white eligible voters will vote for Willard. I still do not see how this will give him 50.01% of the total votes.
Skeldon:
In 2008, whites made up 74% of all voters; darkies(blacks, hispanics, asians, others) made up the remaining 26%
Obama received 43% of the white votes and 80% of the darkies.
DO THE MATH:
(0.43 x 74) + (0.80 x 26) = 31.82 + 20.8 = 52.62%
So Obama received nearly 53% of the votes in 2008---whites contributed 31.82% and darkies contributed 20.8%
RE: 2012
* Assume Obama gets 80% of the darkies and they represent 26% of all voters---same as 2008
* Assume Obama gets only 37% of whites---he got 43% in 2008
LETS RUN THE NUMBERS
(0.37 x 74) + (0.80 x 26) = 27.38 + 20.80 = 48.18%
If Obama gets only 37% of the white votes he will only win 48.18% of the popular vote.
NOW IF OBAMA GETS 40% OF THE WHITE VOTES HE'LL WIN 50.4% OF THE POPULAR VOTE.
CONCLUSION:
The darkies must remain as enthusiastic as they were in 2008 for Obama---and 40% of whites must vote for him----if that's the case Obama will win.
RIGHT NOW THE REV'S ANALYSIS AND CALCULATIONS HAVE OBAMA LOSING TO ROMNEY.
R 53%
O 47%
Rev