The openly racial campaigning and bringing up the past is scaring some Indians, but turning off the few Afros who vote PPP. Also turning off some of the relatively larger mixed population who vote for PPP. The election has teeth. For the first time since 1992, I can't say PPP will win an election. None of this is helpful when the Indo population is between 35 to 39%.
Problem is that the Indian vote is between 45 and 49%, and so the PPP doesn't have to buy too many non Indian votes to win. The coalition has to turn out more Indians votes to win. So unless Indians do the right thing and realize that, as their population dwindles, it isn't in their interest to endorse one race rule, then the PPP wins.
I doubt Indians account for 45 to 49% of the voting population. There is a difference between the voting population and the actual turn out. The point you made re Amerindians is a valid one.
Indian turn out was down last time, even as APNU was able to get more of its supporters out.
So are you implying that the PPP has significant support among the African votes. We already know that the Amerindian vote is not more than 50% of its representation in the voting age population, so around 4%.
Using your logic that the Indian voting age population is less than 45% you are implying that the black and mixed population are more than 50%. So explain why the PPP only lost by 10k votes last time.
In any case if blacks stayed home last time, you think that Nagamootoo will get them out this time? Because it is the same Granger heading the APNU ticket.
You don't make your case by under estimating the Indian voting age population.