The 2014 LAPOP poll and previous ones show the patronage has not been successful among Blacks. It is much more so among the mixed population, 20% of whom vote for PPP. The mixed population saves the PPP more than Amerindians.
The black voting age population is no more than 1/3. My point being that APNU AFC has to convert more Indian voters than the PPP needs to convert more non Indian voters. You confirm it.
The mixed and Amerindian votes for the PPP are about 5% of the votes, assuming the mixed vote at 15%. Assuming that the PPP gets 5% of the African vote (less than 2% of the total) then it implies that it implied that 42% of the voters are Indians for the PPP. That is way more votes than the PNC gets from the black population (30% of the total votes).
if Nagamootoo doesn't bring Indian votes with him, not only does the APNU AFC lose, but the coalition ends. The PPP with regained control of the parliament and a thirst for revenge will run roughshod and the opposition will lack the votes to stop them.
The AFC will then need fight with APNU for their seats. So AFC supporters better get over any notion that they don't have to deliver.