The snap poll quagmire

Is the PPP planning a snap poll? Ask that question six months ago, and most people would’ve said they doubt it. But the pressure by the international community for local government elections has created a huge quagmire for the PPP.
To call the local contest two years (it has to be held either in 2014 or 2015) before the next general elections is not a prospect the PPP is interested in. On the contrary, the party is afraid of it. It is not only the defeats that will occur in major towns, but there will be ignominy in many NDCs.
To enter into a general election after that, has to be a scary venture for the PPP. What it means then is that the PPP may want to call a snap election before the local government fiasco. Why would the PPP rush into another national poll?
Here are some reasons. First, it is becoming increasingly difficult to stop the crescendo of horribly bad publicity against the PPP that comes from every working session of Parliament. The PPP doesn’t care how effective is the opposition in Parliament. It could not be bothered with its incessant dismissal of the decisions of the House.
The main consideration is that each time Parliament meets there is a torrent of exposure of bad governance that takes a heavy toll on the PPP’s declining credibility. We are nearing the end of 2013, and if Parliament continues for the next thirty months, it will not be in the PPP’s interest to endure such biting exposure
In other words the PPP is in a no-win situation. The longer Parliament goes on the worse it is for the PPP’s image and the 10th Parliament will come to an end just before the 2016 election season begins. One way out of this hell-hole is to call a quick election and hope for a majority. Can the PPP win a majority? My opinion is no. It doesn’t have the demographic numbers.
The young population (over sixty percent is under 21, making Guyana one of the youngest countries on the globe) cannot be relied upon to demonstrate unyielding tribalist feelings. Thirdly, some terrible behavioural patterns by the ruling party will doom it. Fourthly, the strong support base in Berbice that it enjoyed for over sixty years has vanished.
Fifthly, the results of the last elections could have been better for both AFC and APNU. Their campaigns were not relentlessly energetic. They will not make that mistake this time around.
One of the first disappointments David Granger voiced after the election in 2011 was the colossal abstention (more than 100,000 eligible voters did not cast ballots). Granger knew that a sizeable chunk of that number would have gone to APNU.
The rational mind will think that the PPP cannot win. But the last thing dictatorships have is rationality. The PPP believes it can win. Two reasons drive it. It has a superabundance of resources, a tenth of which the opposition does not possess. Just one of the PPP’s ultra-wealthy backers could finance the PPP’s entire campaign. The party thinkers believe lack of resources will undo the opposition. It is really a silly analysis.
In 2011, for every dollar the opposition spent, the PPP spent a hundred, yet the PPP could not secure a majority. They are fooling themselves to think money can buy a victory.
The second motive has to do with psychology. Jagan is long gone but he left an imprint in the mind of every PPP leader, be that person old, young, male or female, in or out of Guyana – Indians are the exclusive ownership of the PPP.
Once Guyana has a PPP, no matter in what form or no matter how bad it behaves, Indians will embrace the party. For the PPP, the electoral behaviour of Berbicians (they switched to AFC and they also stayed home – 47 percent didn’t vote) in 2011 was just one of those things that will not re-occur.
The PPP will go back with Ramotar and Hinds because they know that among Indians, it doesn’t matter who you put, Indians are tied to the PPP. Throw in some nasty, racist propaganda and Indians will remain loyal. They have no choice, a PPP leader will tell himself or herself.
Readers looking at this column will know that it is a mirage. The young Indians are not so gullible. The young Indians will listen to Nagamootoo, Ramjattan, Ramkarran, Charrandas Persaud, Dr. Ramayya, Gerhard Ramsaroop and Rajendra Bisessar, among others.
Only the PPP cannot see this and they cannot see it because dictatorship and reality are antithetical. The opposition should not discount the possibility of a snap poll.

Not only asj would tell you that the Corrupt PPP/C is scared for any Elections