Are you saying that APNU would win?
What people need to discuss isn't whether the PPP will lose or not, but what do they think are the chances that APNU will win. I some how don't think that many think that APNU will win, at least not unless the AFC really savages the PPP in its base.
A likely scenario will be a PPP plurality with a smaller number of seats. I hope that APNU and the AFC have a plan for that, but knowing how stupid the APNU is, and how full of self delusion the AFC is, I doubt it.
I will suggest that APNU has a 30% floor and a 40% cap, while the PPP has a 40% floor. The race vote still exists and the PPP will always gain some non Indian votes by their ability to buy it. This suggests that the AFC has a 30% cap.
If we can see a marriage between AFC/APNU then the Corrupt PPP/C would be history. But would the AFC willing to take this gamble?
With mutual discussion on this subject, I think that understanding between both parties are workable:
Meaning that Parties AFC/APNU retain what they have now, and going as a coalition, divvy up the gains between themselves equally, and that will be going into any elections as a coalition. If they win, then they form the Government based on amount of seats they have after elections, AFC with their Gains, and APNU with their gains.
Going it alone, might very well bring the PPP/C back to power again, now is the time, I do hope that in order to kick the PPP/C out, this is the decision they need to arrive at.
The AFC isn't open to a pre election coalition and I don't see that they should be. The fact is that many who support them do so out of the hope that at some point, even if not in the immediate future, they will emerge as a major party, lifting Guyana out of the morass that it has been in for more than 50 years. They will not if they become as absorbed by APNU as the WPA has become.
People need to face the fact that the most likely scenario will be a PPP plurality again, most likely with an even smaller vote than before. The PPP also knows this as Luncheon admitted that a minority gov't might be a "permanent" feature.
So I suggest that APNU and the AFC should begin addressing the possibility of this rather than foolishly hoping that APNU will win. The AFC needs to learn how to anticipate their support because on the last two occasions they guessed wrong.
They need to stop thinking that the mere fact that people aren't happy with the major players means that they will get the vote. I was told that several people liked them last election but supported APNU as they saw a vote for the AFC as wasted as they didn't see them able to win.
I doubt that much has changed, even though a further encroachment into the PPP strongholds is likely as that party implodes into extreme arrogance as noted by their AG. Even Priya had to speak out against Anil's behavior so there is no point for the PPP chorus to deny or excuse this thuggery.