Kari posted:It is 11 months away from the Presidential elections in the US.
The numbers are what they are:
- Trump polls 40% among Republican Primary voters.
- Republican voters make up about 40% of the total voting population.
- Trump's 40% of a general population of 40% = 16%.
- The Democrats are about 40% of the general election votes and so Independents are the remaining 20%.
- Give Trump half that and so he adds 20% to 16% and you get 36% of the general election votes.
- You ask what happens to the non-Trump Republican voters - that's 34%. If Trump gets them all then he adds that to this 36% and he gets 70% of the votes in the general elections.
Trump gets as much as only about 30% of Independents, because a lot of them are Hispanics and women. Trump does not get all the non-trump Republicans. The Democrats over the last 2 election cycles have gotten more than the 40-40-20 split. The Independents have shrunk as the electorate gets more polarized.
caribny screams as usual about turnout and I think Trump will galvanize a lot of people- to vote AGAINST him. He kork duck and the GOP cyant sniff more than 45% of the General Election voters. So leave Trump alone to enjoy his 15 minutes of Apprentice fame. We'll get serious come the summer of 2016 at Convention time.
Banna, you analyze the leaves and miss the forest. I cannot say he will win, but leaving out the primary, in a head to head match up he polls in the 40's against Hillary. Furthermore, he polls higher in anonymous on-line polling by 10 points as many more educated middle-class and the affluent prefer to stay away from controversy by using an establishment name when asked face-to-face.