Kari posted:baseman posted:Kari posted:It is 11 months away from the Presidential elections in the US.
The numbers are what they are:
- Trump polls 40% among Republican Primary voters.
- Republican voters make up about 40% of the total voting population.
- Trump's 40% of a general population of 40% = 16%.
- The Democrats are about 40% of the general election votes and so Independents are the remaining 20%.
- Give Trump half that and so he adds 20% to 16% and you get 36% of the general election votes.
- You ask what happens to the non-Trump Republican voters - that's 34%. If Trump gets them all then he adds that to this 36% and he gets 70% of the votes in the general elections.
Trump gets as much as only about 30% of Independents, because a lot of them are Hispanics and women. Trump does not get all the non-trump Republicans. The Democrats over the last 2 election cycles have gotten more than the 40-40-20 split. The Independents have shrunk as the electorate gets more polarized.
caribny screams as usual about turnout and I think Trump will galvanize a lot of people- to vote AGAINST him. He kork duck and the GOP cyant sniff more than 45% of the General Election voters. So leave Trump alone to enjoy his 15 minutes of Apprentice fame. We'll get serious come the summer of 2016 at Convention time.
Banna, you analyze the leaves and miss the forest. I cannot say he will win, but leaving out the primary, in a head to head match up he polls in the 40's against Hillary. Furthermore, he polls higher in anonymous on-line polling by 10 points as many more educated middle-class and the affluent prefer to stay away from controversy by using an establishment name when asked face-to-face.
From a UK observer in the Guardian newspaper -
John Kerry won the Democratic nomination in 2004, but in December 2003 he was rarely hitting 10% in the polls, while Barack Obama trailed Clinton by nearly 20 points at the end of 2007.
John McCain, the 2008 GOP nominee, was behind both Giuliani and Mike Huckabee in December 2007, and in several polls was in the fifth spot, behind Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson.
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Four years ago the GOP candidate was Romney. He was 10 to 15 points behind Gingrich at this stage of the election.
There are other examples in earlier primary races too: in late 1991, Bill Clinton was polling at about 8%.
There are, of course, other elections in which the Democratic or theRepublican
candidate that was leading at this stage did go on to win the nomination. They included, among others, Ronald Reagan (1980), George HW Bush (1988), George W Bush (2000) and Walter Mondale (1984).The point is this: the person who leads in the polls at this stage of the election may or may not win the nomination. Polling is one predictor in an election – and any definitive argument based on polls alone is inconclusive based on the evidence available.
In addition to historical precedent, there are other factors to consider when interpreting polls at this point in an election cycle.
First, a limited number of people are paying attention to the election at this stage.
On average, only one in three Democratic and Republican voters in Iowa and New Hampshire had come to a final decision before the final month of the campaign in the last two election cycles.
Assuming the same is valid today – and there is no evidence to suggest that it isn’t – this means that the vast majority of Republicans who will eventually cast a ballot have yet to decide how they will vote.
Secondly, polling this far out is influenced by a candidate’s name recognition. This tends to favour Trump due to his pre-existing public and media profile: more voters will be aware of Trump compared with other candidates – and will already have a clear opinion of him. Conversely, for example, about 30% still say they haven’t heard enough to make up their minds about Marco Rubio.
This could imply that Trump could struggle to substantially increase his support in the months to come. He will not only need the 30-odd percent of Republicans that currently support him to actually turn out – he will need far more voters than his current level of support suggests if he is to win the nomination.
I agree, it will likely be Rubio or Cruz who have better band width. I think though, the "Trump effect" will make it's way into the main GOP platform. Trump has energized a core base which felt neglected and overruled by slum dwellers and the welfare class. They need to hold this base while reaching out to the wider community. Hillary is doing well in the primary, but not a clear favorite in the general. Her base and core has been defined, now it's for the GOP to chip away at the undecided.
That wall will be built.