Isn't the forum one where we're supposed to have debates? All I'm saying is that your sit and do nothing strategy is a guarantee for failure. There is a better chance of getting the PPP out by merging. There will not be a major shift in votes from 2011 and that to me gives the opposition a better shot of winning. The aim is to remove the PPP not to have them back as a minority government. If you have a better plan to get them out, let us know but so far you haven't proposed anything better.
You do know that only 5k votes makes a difference and that isn't a major shift, even though it will have major consequences.
The PPP need only take back 60% of the votes that it lost to the AFC. And you know that many of them aren't too happy with any arrangement which includes the PNC, which they will swear engaged in "beat and kill collie" up to a scant 10 years ago.
I suggest that you focus on the fact that Nagamootoo telling Indians to vote PNC is a good deal harder than asking them to vote for him as an alternate to the PPP.
Here is the deal. Blacks aren't voting PPP. Amerindians aren't voting PERIOD. So the election will be largely determined by what those Indians who are no longer hard core PPP supporters do. Will they vote PNC?
Focus on that instead of fooling yourself that a bunch of armchair GNI posters, none of whom are going to vote or even campaign, are going to have any impact. The most that might happen is that some one glances on GNI and picks up and idea or 2. And they do look at GNI.
I suggest that you focus on the fact that Nagamootoo telling Indians to vote PNC is a good deal harder than asking them to vote for him as an alternate to the PPP.
That's Moses's challenge, one which I don't think 3 months is enough time to dissipate fears of the PNC.
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While Caribny's assessment of the electoral environment is one that I share I must add the element of time. It's in the PPP's favor.
Also while the 60% swing in Region 6 is achievable for the PPP with its stronger machinery of getting out the votes and talking advantage of vulnerabilities provided by the coalition, we have to not lose sight of the 10 Regional seats. This is why Caribny's comments on the voter turnout are worth noting.
Let's have an adult conversation about electoral prospects and not get wrapped up in emotions. Most everyone on this Board want to see the PPP lose. That's not a question. However answers provided by the coalition strategy and the tactics of campaigning that puts the AFC and APNU behind the 8-ball are what we're trying to put our 2cents worth on. So far Caribny and Shaitaan have advanced the more believable commentary.
Caribj and Shaitaan have advanced the theory that the merger of the opposition parties is a failure. They have no viable alternative strategy for the opposition which makes any sense. My point is that while the coalition may yet lose to the PPP, the option with the best chance of unseating the PPP is a Granger led coalition.
What is your strategy for an opposition victory that will produce better results than the Granger led merger?
A Joinder of Lists! Not a merger in one List.
You think the opposition have not already explored that avenue and discounted it? What does the constitution say about the coalition of parties? First you wanted Nagamootoo to lead the coalition and when that didn't happen, you came up with this hare brained scheme. The PNC base will not vote for Nagamootoo as president. They will say that Granger sold them down the river and stay away from the elections. So there goes the largest base of the coalition.
I don't know why people always assume politicians are all knowing and all brilliant. They aren't. We don't know if they explored it at all. We don't know if the AFC asked for this and was shot down and instead told "merger or nothing."
What pray tell makes this perfectly lawful idea provided for in the Constitution and statute "hare brained"?
Well, if the PNC base thinks the august and lofty position of "Presidential Candidate" is worth more to them than that worthless "elected President" post then more power to them. I'm not against stupid people being punished for their stupidity. Maybe the PNC support base just likes the wonderful excitement of election campaigns and aren't so hung up about minor things like "winning."