You are always sitting on a sick and arguing to your own demons. Who care where the five percent of the ppp voters go if the demographics has shifted as the indications seem to indicate. While none of us have the exact data, we can extrapolate from the information available. It shows Indians at a 39% of the population. This will not deviate greatly from the elections list so it means even if the retain all their numbers ( an impossibility) they still lose because you know the APNU base is hardened and their loss will be due to apathy. Even with some 80K differential in those not voting, the PPP barely broke the majority. Africans are going to turn out this time because of the sense of the inevitable. There is a very good chance of defeating the PPP.
By the way, it is downright ignorant to call us armchair whatever. We are certainly more informed than the average Guyanese. Further, having an opinion is not contingent on voting in Guyana.
So let us use YOUR data. Indians at 38%. PPP gets 35% of the vote based on Indians, and another 14% based on non Indians. That crushes your argument that racial voting will kill them because they would have won 25% of the non Indian vote.
Looking at the interior vote it isn't likely that Amerindians are more than 6% of the vote, so 12% of the voters will be PPP African/mixed using your numbers, so here comes the PPP with 25% of the African and mixed vote. Quite good in a country mired by racial voting.
Your argument ironically works best if you use a higher number for the Indian vote. Then one can argue that the PPP performance depends mainly on Indian behavior. You can then calculate that exciting the African/mixed vote is what you must do, not woo them from the PPP. Ditto for the Amerindian vote where many aren't voting.
I have stated elsewhere my thoughts about how the AFC/APNU can snatch victory out of the jaws of defeat, but complacency and the PPP wins as they are already spraying poor communities with vote buying projects, as we all predicted would happen.
And why will Africans vote, when many haven't voted since 2001? How often does Granger bother with them? Why will they assume that a Granger win will benefit them?
Like every other segment of the voting population they will need to be convinced that they should vote. So don't count their vote unless APNU does something to deserve it.
Stormy unless you are down in Guyana campaigning, fundraising, and planning to vote you are an armchair prognosticator. ALL of us are, some just more practical than others.
Your numbers from poop chute are meaningless. The real numbers would on May 11th and not sooner. Stick to herding and takeing stock of your cockroaches.
Mits, your rejoinder should have more substance than the responses more associated with Redux and Mars. You're better than that.