You are into numerology or an example of innumeracy as the Rev is. Where will the PPP pick up 14 percent outside their base? That is their dilemma. They will have to hold the Amerindians and that is not possible. At best they can maintain here. They will have to poach at least 10 percent from the mixed vote and that is impossible. They will have to get and hold 90 percent of the new voters some 60 percent of the electorate and that is not happening. They cannot win with the dog whistle politics and the PNC are the incompetent. They have to sell the illusion that good is to come and since the people know it does not exist. They are all living on the edge, see the corruption, know the impossibility of getting things done procedurally and grasp well the PPP patronage system in the form of payola and bribes. The PPP will do the usual and try to bribe their ways to promising new roads, better water, cheaper electricity etc but that is not going to work. The people are in need of some karma payback from the crooks in the local areas who take advantage of them.
In 2012 the PPP won 49% of the vote with precious little help from the mixed voters. While they won maybe 60% of the Amerindian vote, voter turn out in the interior is abysmally low, so this 60% isn't as important as it appears.
And they lost about 10% of the Indian vote to the AFC.
So it does appear that the Indian % of the voters is a good deal higher than that 40% number which people use.
I suggest that folks estimate an ethnic break down of the REGISTERED voters before they assume that the APNU/AFC can take a leisuredly stroll to victory.
And really it doesn't matter whether the PPP gets 51%, or 54%. They will take back parliament if they get 51%.
Here is a fact Stormy. If the PPP increases its votes by 5k, assuming that the 2015 turnout is the same as 2011, it gets back the majority. What has yuji and the other PPP thugs overjoyed is if they get back 60% of the votes which they lost to the AFC in region 6 they get the majority.
So I suggest that APNU and the AFC get to work and stop behaving as if they are entitled to support just because "de PPP baaaad".
So let us stop looking at census numbers, which show the overall population, and understand that the registered voter population has a very different ethnic composition.
The Indian vote is more important than it appears in the overall census numbers because Amerindian voter turnout is low, and it is a very young population as well. Region 9, with 50% of the population of Region 5 (a PPP stronghold) turned out only 30% of the voters. This suggests that Amerindian voter turnout is 40% lower, so instead of assuming that they are 10% of the votes, a 6% number is more appropriate.
Similarly voter registration in PNC strongholds is lower than in PPP strongholds, as the PPP was effective at registering their voters while the PNC, under Corbin wasn't. Region 10 with 80% of the population of Region 5 only had a vote count at 60%. Indians and Africans have a similar age structure, so this can be fully explained by lower registration and lower turn out.
So the Indian voter base might be as high as 47-50% of the total, even though their overall population is only 40% of the total.
So factor this in before you start celebrating the end of the PPP regime. Indians are still by far the largest voting bloc. The key will be to boost voting in PNC strongholds to levels of the PPP strongholds, and to chip away at the PPP dominance in Regions 1 and 2 where, even in the disastrous 2011 election, they scored almost 70% of the votes.