I am quite certain there is nothing rosy in the PPP future if those numbers are correct. Amerindians vote matter because in region 8, 200 votes give the AFC a seat. It is one they will retain. The PPP has a chance of losing another in region 9. If the numbers are correct, the PPP loses another 2 to natural attrition from immigration in region 6. There is hardly any hopeful news for them. High turnout they definitely lose, low turnout has to be asymmetrical with more non Indians staying home and that is not likely this time.
If those numbers are correct then the APNU simply have to hold turf. If I was running the campaign I would have shape files of the region and simply go after those who already voted AFC from PPP areas and focus on voter education in ones districts
Stormy we had an election a mere 4 years ago. I doubt that there is this drastic transformation that you are chatting about.
The rest is pure conjecture based on the work that APNU and the AFC do. It is not automatic that Indians will stay home, or that Africans will suddenly get excited, or for that matter the Amerindians will start voting, other than those who vote because the tochao tells them to.
The raw vote roughly mirrors the seat allocation so I suggest that you look at that and not at the mathematics involved in allocation of the regional seats. That no one can control until the ballots are counting. Raw votes based upon turn out is what is more determinable by the political parties.
The PPP has the resources of the state and of the elites to lavish, and have given themselves ample time to do so. I will give you an example of this. St Kitts Nevis announced elections around the same time as Guyana did. Their elections are today (Monday). The PPP gave themselves 4 months to buy votes with the resources of the state. Now why couldn't elections have been on March 3?
If you think that elections are won on goodness and virtue I will show you a US Senate which clearly wasn't.
And a narrow focus is the reason why the AFC only got 11% of the votes. They spent their entire campaign in Regions 5 and 6 and so lost ground in the other regions, other than 8 where the remnants of the UF campaigned for them, giving them a princely 900 votes. Region 8 being a place where apparently almost no one votes.