2015 will go down as a historic year

The year 2015 will go down in history as a watershed year for Guyanese for a number of reasons. Some reasons are more important than others, but here are a few of them.

One, the People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C), once a mass-based political party, was removed from office after 23 years of governing the country, following a much longer 28 years of People’s National Congress (PNC) rule. It was a shock to the PPP and its supporters, many of whom felt that the party was invincible. The PPP leadership had invested an enormous amount of energy and resources to secure a victory during the 2015 election, although the previous election had shown a decline in support, resulting in the party maintaining Executive power, but not a majority in Parliament. The PPP leadership continues to argue that the party was cheated out of office. As I have argued before, if, as the PPP claimed, similar irregularities (tampering with Statements of Poll, intimidation of polling agents, etcetera) existed during the previous election, then the Party, in Government at the time, was responsible for setting the mechanisms in place to prevent such irregularities from recurring.

The PPP leadership was aware that the Party was in trouble and faced the possibility of losing the 2015 General and Regional Election. So the Party relied on the reputation and experience of former President Bharrat Jagdeo. Jagdeo’s presence in the campaign overshadowed that of President Donald Ramotar, whose three-year term is considered as a failure in terms of its accomplishments, as well as the lack of an ability to mobilise and secure the traditional Party base. Given the results of the election, it can be argued that the Opposition effectively mobilised its forces to encircle the PPP, partly by cultivating an image of a Opposition party that was less willing to rely on violence and street protests and by making effective use of social media during the election campaign which painted the PPP/C as being corrupt and discriminatory towards its supporters.

Two, the PPP/C was removed by a coalition of forces, the two largest being the PNC and the Alliance For Change (AFC). Coalition politics since the PNC-United Force (UF) coalition that brought a victory to Forbes Burnham. The parties – the A Partnership for National Unity (APNU) and the AFC, after much speculation and anxiety, agreed to a menu of measures and both parties signed the Herdmanston Accord to seal their agreement. While the key members of the AFC have not raised any major concerns, others have commented on an erosion of the powers of some of the AFC members within the coalition. Some Guyanese have speculated that the AFC may have even lost its support base which helped push the coalition to victory. However, the Local Government Election set for March 2016 will allow us to better assess the strength of the key political parties, although the AFC will campaign with its coalition partner, the APNU.

Three, ExxonMobil’s discovery of a possible $40 billion oil and gas reserve in the northern part of Guyana, with a potential worth of 12 times the value of the Guyanese economy, creates hope for an improvement of the nations’ human and economic development. How the revenue from this large oil/gas discovery will be utilised by the Government coalition remains to be seen. Undoubtedly, despite the fluctuations in oil price and a greater reliance on natural energy sources, if the new found wealth is managed effectively, an oil economy has the potential to transform Guyana from a backwater country into a modern nation state.

Four, a series of Government forensic audits commenced into the activities of members of the PPP Government, with the hope of finding malfeasance and corruption. So far, after more than seven months in office, the Government has not yet provided credible evidence for the prosecution of a “big fish”. Threats continued to be made against suspects who may have cheated the Guyanese people and stolen State assets. Clearly, the guilty should be prosecuted, but the actions of the Government so far has convinced many Guyanese that witchhunting and discrimination against Opposition supporters might be at play. In our already divided society, these actions, be they real or based on suspicions, if left unresolved can only create further racial rift in an already fractured society.

Finally, as the nation gear up for the upcoming Golden Jubilee celebration, social cohesion seems to be the new buzzword, replacing national unity and power-sharing, which now seems to be on the back-burner. Social cohesion cannot be achieved on terms and conditions established by the ruling coalition alone. The Government unilaterally calls the shot and the PPP has refused to participate in “unity” talks. The stalemate on the racial divide will continue to remain static, even as the nation acknowledges its 50 years of being independent. More than likely, Guyanese will have to endure another five years as a divided nation unless political leaders from both sides of the fence decide to tackle this issue with seriousness as we head into the New Year.
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