A ONE- SEAT PARTY CAN HOLD THE BALANCE OF POWER
Jun 02, 2017 , http://www.kaieteurnewsonline....he-balance-of-power/
There have been calls for new political parties to be formed. But how successful or impactful can these political parties become given the rigid ethnic divisions in our society?
At present, there is no party that holds the balance of power in Guyana. The AFC did hold and did boast about having such a power in the 2011 elections but it squandered those powers when it failed to continue to act independently and instead joined forces, almost exclusively, with the APNU to oppose the PPPC.
The present ethnic configuration of Guyana means that the PPPC can no longer rely on the ethnic divide to deliver an election victory. And the PPPC leadership does not have what it takes to win over the support of the APNU or the AFC base.
This does suggest that once voting patterns remain divided along ethnic lines that elections in Guyana are going to be extremely close. But this should be good news for new parties seeking to hold the balance of power.
All it will take is for a new party to obtain two seats to hold the balance of power. A new party which can attract 6,500 votes may be able to do so. Competing only in one of the smaller regions may equally do the trick.
The problem that new party faces is that obtaining this small number of votes is extremely difficult as the Working People’s Alliance found out in 1992. And that party had tremendous mass based attendance at its political meetings during the late 1970s.
While therefore it may seem easy for a new party to come along and obtain 6,500 votes and with this handful of national support hold the balance of power in the National Assembly, it is not easy for any new party to achieve this easily.
The AFC did show what could be done. The middle class rallied behind the AFC when it was first established and this is source of its support which it is likely to hold on to but that support if it dwindles – and from all indications it will – will see the middle class gravitate back into the respective ethnic camps. It is therefore difficult to see how any new party can gain the requisite number of votes to hold a seat.
It is a possible that with what is known as ‘leftover’ votes that a party can sneak in and gain a seat with a small number say 4,000 votes but to ask a new political party to take such a gamble given what it costs to run a campaign in Guyana may be asking a small or new party too much.
The United Force did win a seat in a previous election based on the ‘leftover’ votes.
But to ask any political entity to expend the energy in campaigning, including all the vitriolic attacks which characterize Guyanese politics, in the hope that the arithmetic at the end may allow it to win a seat is asking too much.
Many years ago, there was a character who made a minimalist appeal to the Guyanese electorate. He said he was the best looking of all the political candidates and all he wanted was one seat. He did not get it. This is how cruel is Guyana’s political system.
New parties and independent candidates have been crushed by the ethnic bulldozer in Guyana. In the last local government elections, the independent candidates were steamrolled. The independent parties were decimated at the polls. At this was an election in which the stakes were not high.
The PPPC had quickly regrouped following it loss in the general election in 2015. The PPPC won the popular vote in those elections and dominated the poll in the villages while the APNU won overwhelmingly in the towns, including in the new towns which it created.
One thing that has not been tried in Guyana is a youth party. But is doubtful whether any such party can mobilize the finances required to launch a meaningful political campaign. It is also difficult to imagine young people breaking with traditional voting patterns. They have never done this in Guyana, and all the past elections suggest that young people voted primarily along ethnic lines.
The verdict therefore is that theoretically it is possible for a new party to hold the balance of power in Guyana by winning one seat, but in practice it is difficult to see how a new party can secure the requisite number of votes to win that one seat.
