After this court ruling, the PNC and AFC still will not concede defeat
For a large number of persons, Guyanese and non-Guyanese who have been following the post-2020 election Frankenstein vaudeville show, they believe that GECOM with Claudette Singh’s vote will make a declaration after the Chief Justice’s ruling based on the CARICOM observed recount and that brings an end to it. I don’t think so.
In a column in March, I posited that the PNC and AFC will remain in power illegally and hope for a settlement where there will still have some form of power. Yog Mahadeo on Kaieteur Radio last Friday evening asked me an interesting question. I believe every Guyanese in and out of the land should reflect on my answer.
Mahadeo inquired if the Chancellor will swear in Dr. Irfaan Ali should GECOM make a declaration based on the CARICOM scrutinized recount and what will be the attitude of the police and the army should Granger refuse to exit the presidency. I have always said to myself that as a trained academic, my first loyalty is to history and scholarship and not to people’s feelings
As a human, your first loyalty is to help people. But when you put on the hat of an academic or journalist, your obligation is to history and journalism. You cannot write on social phenomena to ease the pessimism or elevate the optimism of society. That is not your role as an academic or journalist.
What follows may generate maudlin thoughts in people that speak to me all the time about the election crisis since the Mingo sarcoma of March 3. To give an alternative explanation will be a deliberate deception. I hope what I write below I am proven wrong for the sake of my country but as I see it, the Chancellor will swear in Dr. Ali but Granger will not demit office. Granger is going to cite illegal conduct by GECOM and seek further court sessions.
How are the security forces going to react? Neither the army chief nor the police commissioner is going to speak to the press. They are not going to comment on their constitutional loyalty. They are going to take instructions from the President and his Cabinet. What this means is that once APNU+AFC’s oligarchic nihilism continues, the army and police are going to follow instructions from the caretaker government.
Obviously, they will be sanctioned by the international community but I don’t think that will lead them into conceding defeat. In fact, the totality of the state sector – all state institutions, including the autonomous ones like UG and others – will not officially recognize there is a new president but will accept the Granger government until it is officially out of office through its own volition.
I think APNU+AFC is hoping that there will be violent behavior by PPP supporters so they can proclaim a state of emergency but I doubt the opposition parties will swallow that bait. The reason for the PPP’s stance on country-wide demonstrations is because it knows that it is in a win-win situation now that the Chief Justice has ruled.
Once you have the entire world including all the important international and regional institutions, all the important international and regional governments on your side then why give the APNU+AFC’s autocracy a reason for having a state of emergency. The opposition parties know the APNU+AFC regime will fall within weeks or months so they are not going to galvanize their supporters to protest.
In this scenario, how does the APNU+AFC regime hope to survive? The key figure here is Raphael Trotman. He is the one that the APNU+AFC will designate to open negotiations with the Americans. The West will not speak to Harmon, Nagamootoo, and Ramjattan whom they have disdain and contempt for. Granger doesn’t have even an ounce of skills to be part of one of the most sensitive and complex political dialogue in the history of both British Guiana and Guyana.
Trotman is going to ask for an interim government with a new GECOM, new voters’ list, new Constitution. This will take two years and in that interregnum, APNU+AFC will ask for a PNC prime minister while conceding the presidency to the PPP. There are three huge boulders blocking the pathway to the house of compromise.
First, the Canadian and the EU will not go along with the arrangement. While the OAS may remain silent, Canada and the EU may see it as rewarding APNU and AFC for uncivilized political behavior in the 21st century. Secondly, CARICOM under the chairmanship of Ralph Gonsalves will see the settlement as a terrible precedent that will destroy free elections in the region in the future. Finally, the PPP will fight it down.
(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper.)