Amaila Falls Hydropower Project now highly unlikely

I hope I don't hear from SN for posting this article since SN is a paid site, but this seems important.

Wonder what Engineer Sam Hinds will say now!!  

That's the problem with Guyana, every dam thing is driven by politics even though in the long run the people will end up holding wood like the Skeldon generating plant fiasco.

It might be prudent holding off getting on your high horse until the full report is made available and other experts have had a time to study it and make comments. This is a statement coming out from the GoG.

Looks like the report is saying that hydro electric dam in general are not profitable if all the requirements are to be fulfilled.  

Zed posted:

It might be prudent holding off getting on your high horse until the full report is made available and other experts have had a time to study it and make comments. This is a statement coming out from the GoG.

Understood.  I have the report.

Zed posted:

It might be prudent holding off getting on your high horse until the full report is made available and other experts have had a time to study it and make comments. This is a statement coming out from the GoG.

Norway has the most reliable engineers for dams. I take them at their word.

This is the Conclusion from the report:

Conclusion
From a financial and economic point of view, development of Amaila Falls seems to be the optimal solution for meeting the electricity demand in Guyana. The project should be financially restructured in order to make it more attractive for GOG and potential investors. Since the perceived risks of investing in Guyana are high, mainly due to political and regulatory reasons, one possible way for Norway to support the project would be to issue guarantees to the project for the repayment of the loan. This would reduce the financing costs substantially, and the risks for the equity sponsor of the project. We recommend that possible guarantee support mechanisms are evaluated as part of the further work on the project.
The financing challenge as a result of the perceived risk of investing in Guyana would be the same for all projects of a similar size, and substituting AFHP with another hydropower project of a similar size would not make any difference. With the suggested financial restructuring of the project, the annual payments from GPL may be reduced by 20% compared to the original proposal, and the annual costs for GPL would significantly lower than operating the existing thermal plants in Guyana.

Here is an interesting paragraph in the report:

Amaila Falls alone cannot provide a 100% emission free power generation in Guyana. Other generating sources will have to be added in parallel like sun, wind and thermal production based on emission neutral fuel (bagasse) for back-up in the dry periods when the water flow to AFHP may be insufficient for full capacity operation. As the power demand is growing, and for reaching the goal of 100% emission free generation by 2025, as assumed by the LCDS, a second hydropower plant of capacity comparable with AFHP will have to be commissioned by 2025. In parallel with preparations for AFHP, therefore, pre-feasibility studies will have to be carried out for promising candidates for the second hydropower project and a full feasibility study be performed for the selected candidate.

Another paragraph:

Our estimate is that 3 years will be required from a decision is taken to resume project preparation for AFHP until Financial Close and Notice to Commence to the EPC Contractor.
From this point in time, we estimate another 3.5 years for construction until start commercial operation of Amaila Falls Hydropower Project.

that thing was a money trap

Joey needs to be put incharge of hydro. No conman is getting past him

Of course, Amailia is necessary in the long run, but it is a matter of sequencing and optimal timing. Anyone with a good understanding of microeconomics and project analysis would have seen the risk early, even before the engineers formalize it. This is was so obvious. I keep saying Jagdeo needs to overhaul Accrebre college. It needs to be less ideological and more nationalistic. BTW, before some people start yapping about manufacturing, just take a moment to observe that Guyana once manufactured refrigerators, stoves, small SUV (tapir), small and medium-sized ships, garments, tires, radios, consumer products like toothpaste, etc, as well as having a variety of first-rate food processing capabilities WITHOUT HYDROELECTRICITY.

VVP, thanks for the excerpts from the report. It provides a better, though incomplete picture.

The other day i was reflecting on the amount products manufactured in Guyana,most gone,imports take over.

TK, nice to see that you are back on the board. Now, I can continue my training in economics.

i think Accrebe College is no longer in existence. The PPP sold the land a long time ago to Mazarally and purchased a piece of land in LBI where they intended to build. College. It never materialized so every morning, from my hammock, I look across to this large vacant plot of land.

I am unsure what you mean when you say that the ppp should be less ideological and more nationalistic. Many of us who have been following things in Guyana have criticized Jagdeo for not paying enough attention to ideology.

yes, Guyana manufactured these items, but at what cost. And all of these ventures failed. Additionally, we are living in a more globalize economy and I am not certain that those enterprises will survive if re-established in Guyana at this time. Electricity cost is one Factor in the decision matrix, but not the most important one. There are many more important factors that need to be considered.

Zed posted:

TK, nice to see that you are back on the board. Now, I can continue my training in economics.

i think Accrebe College is no longer in existence. The PPP sold the land a long time ago to Mazarally and purchased a piece of land in LBI where they intended to build. College. It never materialized so every morning, from my hammock, I look across to this large vacant plot of land.

I am unsure what you mean when you say that the ppp should be less ideological and more nationalistic. Many of us who have been following things in Guyana have criticized Jagdeo for not paying enough attention to ideology.

yes, Guyana manufactured these items, but at what cost. And all of these ventures failed. Additionally, we are living in a more globalize economy and I am not certain that those enterprises will survive if re-established in Guyana at this time. Electricity cost is one Factor in the decision matrix, but not the most important one. There are many more important factors that need to be considered.

One of the main reasons why those businesses failed was because of migration of the people who had the know how to do them. Then, the trade liberalization under Hoyte's ERP was another factor. If they survived they would have evolved into being more competitive and in case the country would have had at least two big hydros by now. Electricity is only one aspect of the cost of business in that country, and places like DDL and Banks are generating electricity at rates consistent with the proposed Amaila. That Jagdeo refuses to remove Marxism-Leninism from PPP constitution suggests he is ideological, although his business interests tend to muddy the ideological basis.

I was not aware Accrebre is defunct. It was fun attending it even if it was ideology with no nationalist or historical appreciation. It was fun having short lectures Dr Luncheon, Dr Jagan, Dr Henry Jeffrey, Mr Feroz Mohamed, Pandit Reepu and others. Even as a 19 year old kid, I knew what they were saying made little sense, but it was cute extreme left-wing stuff. That's why I went on to UG and eventually to America's No. 1 Progressive University.

 I never attended it, nor accepted any of the scholarships. I was too much of a free thinker and well read by the time I completed high school.

jagdeo's refusal to remove Marxism -Leninism is more a product of internal party politics and personal hegemonic imperatives than an adherence to that ideology.  I cannot think of any economic policy initiative that he implemented in his years as president that emanated from that ideology.

They private sector prospered under Jagdeo.  

TK posted:

Of course, Amailia is necessary in the long run, but it is a matter of sequencing and optimal timing. Anyone with a good understanding of microeconomics and project analysis would have seen the risk early, even before the engineers formalize it. This is was so obvious. I keep saying Jagdeo needs to overhaul Accrebre college. It needs to be less ideological and more nationalistic. BTW, before some people start yapping about manufacturing, just take a moment to observe that Guyana once manufactured refrigerators, stoves, small SUV (tapir), small and medium-sized ships, garments, tires, radios, consumer products like toothpaste, etc, as well as having a variety of first-rate food processing capabilities WITHOUT HYDROELECTRICITY.

All of these were within a "planned economic" model of the PNC.  They existed because of heavy subsidies from the Govt.  Furthermore, the world has changed quite a lot from back then.  If I remember, the Brits were still a big auto producer back then.  Furthermore, back then, Guyana still had a reliable power source, which was not being reinvested, thus the eventual collapse.  All these PNC initiatives were done at the expense of the underlying economic backbone, all of which eventually gave way under the weight of these non-viable enterprises.

However, let me add, I do believe some of the initiatives were actually good and should have been taken up by the PPP Govt. I believe the downstream food and beverage industry were areas of natural competitive advantage the PPP should have explored.

Many of these companies you mentioned went under because they were not viable under their own weight.  Durable goods are levied with high duties and yet locals such as GRL, GRECO, glass, cotton, etc, were never resuscitated by privates.  They were just not sustainable even with the GoG granting duty-free concession on capital equipment!

TK, you are a professional economist and should get over your hatred for BJ and the PPP and be a bit more objective and truthful regarding the successes and failings of both the PPP and PNC.  Just remember, Guyana went bankrupt under the PNC model!

This was also part of the findings and conclusion of NORAD.  In the end, BJ and the PPP will be vindicated!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

The new government has confirmed its devotion to the Low Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS), which was introduced in 2009 by the former government and confirmed by its updated LCDS declaration in 2013. With the aim of finding a way forward for the transition of Guyana’s power generation system, Government of Guyana represented by the Minister of Finance and the Minister of Natural Resources and the Government of Norway represented by the Minister of Climate and Environment, decided in December 2015 to perform “an objective and facts-based” assessment of AFHP.

On June 20th 2016 NORAD (Norwegian Agency for Development Co-operation), in support of NICFI signed an agreement with Norconsult AS for carrying out an initial analysis. Main conclusions and recommendations are presented below: The only realistic path for Guyana towards an emission free electricity sector is by developing its hydropower potential. The fastest way forward is to maintain AFHP as the first major step for substituting its current oil fired generation.

AFHP was prioritised as the first hydropower plant because it was the only project with a full feasibility study completed, it has a higher plant load factor than the alternatives, a smaller reservoir and a levelised unit cost in the same range as the most attractive alternatives.

TK posted:

Zed posted:

TK, nice to see that you are back on the board. Now, I can continue my training in economics.

i think Accrebe College is no longer in existence. The PPP sold the land a long time ago to Mazarally and purchased a piece of land in LBI where they intended to build. College. It never materialized so every morning, from my hammock, I look across to this large vacant plot of land.

I am unsure what you mean when you say that the ppp should be less ideological and more nationalistic. Many of us who have been following things in Guyana have criticized Jagdeo for not paying enough attention to ideology.

yes, Guyana manufactured these items, but at what cost. And all of these ventures failed. Additionally, we are living in a more globalize economy and I am not certain that those enterprises will survive if re-established in Guyana at this time. Electricity cost is one Factor in the decision matrix, but not the most important one. There are many more important factors that need to be considered.

One of the main reasons why those businesses failed was because of migration of the people who had the know how to do them..

Well, which is the chicken and which is the egg.  Did the migration cause businesses to fail or did the failure of businesses and the general economy cause people to migrate?

My understanding and experience, Guyana's migration were people seeking better economic alternatives.  There were other factors, including PNC Afro-Centric apartheid, racism, oppression and police/military brutality.  However, most were seeking better economic outcomes in their lives!

How quickly people forget what the PNC represented!

ba$eman posted:

 

 

Well, which is the chicken and which is the egg.  Did the migration cause businesses to fail or did the failure of businesses and the general economy cause people to migrate?

 

Haul yuh racist ass dah side. More people migrated from under PPP/C regime. Look at the decline of the Indo population during the 23 years that PPP/C occupied office. Stop being a slave to your racist mentality.

Zed posted:

VVP, thanks for the excerpts from the report. It provides a better, though incomplete picture.

The report is available online.

Zed posted:

Electricity cost is one Factor in the decision matrix, but not the most important one. There are many more important factors that need to be considered.

Zed, what field were you involved in?  I think it is a fundamental understanding that energy, mainly cheap and reliable electricity, is the most important factor in the development of any country.

What other factors are you implying?  Political stability, human capital etc.?

Again, i think cheap and reliable electricity is the most important.

I cannot understand why Sithe Global has to be "bought out" after it withdrew as the "main sponsor" of the project.  How can you withdraw and still have 60%  ownership in the AFHI?

What's the deal here you finance gurus?

VVP posted:

Zed posted:

Electricity cost is one Factor in the decision matrix, but not the most important one. There are many more important factors that need to be considered.

Zed, what field were you involved in?  I think it is a fundamental understanding that energy, mainly cheap and reliable electricity, is the most important factor in the development of any country.

What other factors are you implying?  Political stability, human capital etc.?

Again, i think cheap and reliable electricity is the most important.

VVP...I have a question for you. Let's say the hydro is up and running. Would there be no blackouts?

ba$eman posted:

This was also part of the findings and conclusion of NORAD.  In the end, BJ and the PPP will be vindicated!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

AFHP was prioritised as the first hydropower plant because it was the only project with a full feasibility study completed, it has a higher plant load factor than the alternatives, a smaller reservoir and a levelised unit cost in the same range as the most attractive alternatives.

This paragraph is the problem. So, Amaila was the ONLY project with full feasibility study completed. HENCE, how do we know that Amaila is the best choice when no feasibility study was done on alternatives. For example, Tiger Fall? You cannot speak of alternatives when you have not even assessed the opportunity cost or alternatives. I have not read the report, but if this is what it says I would have serious doubt.

ba$eman posted:

TK posted:

Of course, Amailia is necessary in the long run, but it is a matter of sequencing and optimal timing. Anyone with a good understanding of microeconomics and project analysis would have seen the risk early, even before the engineers formalize it. This is was so obvious. I keep saying Jagdeo needs to overhaul Accrebre college. It needs to be less ideological and more nationalistic. BTW, before some people start yapping about manufacturing, just take a moment to observe that Guyana once manufactured refrigerators, stoves, small SUV (tapir), small and medium-sized ships, garments, tires, radios, consumer products like toothpaste, etc, as well as having a variety of first-rate food processing capabilities WITHOUT HYDROELECTRICITY.

All of these were within a "planned economic" model of the PNC.  They existed because of heavy subsidies from the Govt.  Furthermore, the world has changed quite a lot from back then.  If I remember, the Brits were still a big auto producer back then.  Furthermore, back then, Guyana still had a reliable power source, which was not being reinvested, thus the eventual collapse.  All these PNC initiatives were done at the expense of the underlying economic backbone, all of which eventually gave way under the weight of these non-viable enterprises.

However, let me add, I do believe some of the initiatives were actually good and should have been taken up by the PPP Govt. I believe the downstream food and beverage industry were areas of natural competitive advantage the PPP should have explored.

Many of these companies you mentioned went under because they were not viable under their own weight.  Durable goods are levied with high duties and yet locals such as GRL, GRECO, glass, cotton, etc, were never resuscitated by privates.  They were just not sustainable even with the GoG granting duty-free concession on capital equipment!

TK, you are a professional economist and should get over your hatred for BJ and the PPP and be a bit more objective and truthful regarding the successes and failings of both the PPP and PNC.  Just remember, Guyana went bankrupt under the PNC model!

 

Actually, none of those companies were started after independence. They were pre-independence companies. Many start leaving because of Cooperative Socialism. The ERP was the final straw.

TK posted:

VVP posted:

Zed posted:

Electricity cost is one Factor in the decision matrix, but not the most important one. There are many more important factors that need to be considered.

Zed, what field were you involved in?  I think it is a fundamental understanding that energy, mainly cheap and reliable electricity, is the most important factor in the development of any country.

What other factors are you implying?  Political stability, human capital etc.?

Again, i think cheap and reliable electricity is the most important.

VVP...I have a question for you. Let's say the hydro is up and running. Would there be no blackouts?

The report itself recognize that there are periods of dry spell where Amaila cannot operate at full capacity.  At one point it said that the operation is more like a run of river type (which seems to me like there is not sufficient reservoir capability).  This means they would still have to carry backup generation to serve the load.  If Amaila cannot generate for lack of water flow they will have to have total load backup.  So if there is not sufficient backup there could be blackout.

No blackouts cannot be guaranteed, even in the USA where massive amounts are spent on reliability.  The loss of a transmission tower could result in blackout under the Amaila construct.  Gotta run.

Why not harness smaller falls  and hook them up into a national grid? This might handle the constant blackout problems.

VVP posted:

TK posted:

VVP posted:

Zed posted:

Electricity cost is one Factor in the decision matrix, but not the most important one. There are many more important factors that need to be considered.

Zed, what field were you involved in?  I think it is a fundamental understanding that energy, mainly cheap and reliable electricity, is the most important factor in the development of any country.

What other factors are you implying?  Political stability, human capital etc.?

Again, i think cheap and reliable electricity is the most important.

VVP...I have a question for you. Let's say the hydro is up and running. Would there be no blackouts?

The report itself recognize that there are periods of dry spell where Amaila cannot operate at full capacity.  At one point it said that the operation is more like a run of river type (which seems to me like there is not sufficient reservoir capability).  This means they would still have to carry backup generation to serve the load.  If Amaila cannot generate for lack of water flow they will have to have total load backup.  So if there is not sufficient backup there could be blackout.

No blackouts cannot be guaranteed, even in the USA where massive amounts are spent on reliability.  The loss of a transmission tower could result in blackout under the Amaila construct.  Gotta run.

I only experienced ONE blackout in the US in 15 years. So, would this hydro put us in a situation of one blackout every 15 years? I would take that any day.

TK posted:

I only experienced ONE blackout in the US in 15 years. So, would this hydro put us in a situation of one blackout every 15 years? I would take that any day.

We get here in New England during severe winter or stormy conditions,does not last very long.

VVP posted:

Zed posted:

Electricity cost is one Factor in the decision matrix, but not the most important one. There are many more important factors that need to be considered.

Zed, what field were you involved in?  I think it is a fundamental understanding that energy, mainly cheap and reliable electricity, is the most important factor in the development of any country.

What other factors are you implying?  Political stability, human capital etc.?

Again, i think cheap and reliable electricity is the most important.

I will mention Venezuela as my answer to your comments.

TK posted:

ba$eman posted:

This was also part of the findings and conclusion of NORAD.  In the end, BJ and the PPP will be vindicated!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

AFHP was prioritised as the first hydropower plant because it was the only project with a full feasibility study completed, it has a higher plant load factor than the alternatives, a smaller reservoir and a levelised unit cost in the same range as the most attractive alternatives.

This paragraph is the problem. So, Amaila was the ONLY project with full feasibility study completed. HENCE, how do we know that Amaila is the best choice when no feasibility study was done on alternatives. For example, Tiger Fall? You cannot speak of alternatives when you have not even assessed the opportunity cost or alternatives. I have not read the report, but if this is what it says I would have serious doubt.

 

They did evaluate others but come to the early conclusion that Amelia was the best.  You can argue they should have went to the enth degree however, they concluded on Amelia.

Mitwah posted:

Why not harness smaller falls  and hook them up into a national grid? This might handle the constant blackout problems.

I'm sure after Amelia the Govt would be looking to harness others but you have to start somewhere.  Furthermore, having the fossil back up is also a viable and acceptable alternative.  What do you think will happen in a Solar power grid?

TK posted:

ba$eman posted:

This was also part of the findings and conclusion of NORAD.  In the end, BJ and the PPP will be vindicated!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

AFHP was prioritised as the first hydropower plant because it was the only project with a full feasibility study completed, it has a higher plant load factor than the alternatives, a smaller reservoir and a levelised unit cost in the same range as the most attractive alternatives.

This paragraph is the problem. So, Amaila was the ONLY project with full feasibility study completed. HENCE, how do we know that Amaila is the best choice when no feasibility study was done on alternatives. For example, Tiger Fall? You cannot speak of alternatives when you have not even assessed the opportunity cost or alternatives. I have not read the report, but if this is what it says I would have serious doubt.

 

Are you saying that back in 2008, Amelia falls was chosen from hat(Jagdeo and PPP randomly chose) and no other pre feasibility study was done on any other river to narrow the most feasible to be Amelia?

Discrediting Jagdeo at the expense of our economy is the silliest thing this gov't. can do.  They don't want Jagdeo's name to be associated with a major project like this.  This is the real reason for their opposition to the project.

TK posted:

ba$eman posted:

TK posted:

Of course, Amailia is necessary in the long run, but it is a matter of sequencing and optimal timing. Anyone with a good understanding of microeconomics and project analysis would have seen the risk early, even before the engineers formalize it. This is was so obvious. I keep saying Jagdeo needs to overhaul Accrebre college. It needs to be less ideological and more nationalistic. BTW, before some people start yapping about manufacturing, just take a moment to observe that Guyana once manufactured refrigerators, stoves, small SUV (tapir), small and medium-sized ships, garments, tires, radios, consumer products like toothpaste, etc, as well as having a variety of first-rate food processing capabilities WITHOUT HYDROELECTRICITY.

All of these were within a "planned economic" model of the PNC.  They existed because of heavy subsidies from the Govt.  Furthermore, the world has changed quite a lot from back then.  If I remember, the Brits were still a big auto producer back then.  Furthermore, back then, Guyana still had a reliable power source, which was not being reinvested, thus the eventual collapse.  All these PNC initiatives were done at the expense of the underlying economic backbone, all of which eventually gave way under the weight of these non-viable enterprises.

However, let me add, I do believe some of the initiatives were actually good and should have been taken up by the PPP Govt. I believe the downstream food and beverage industry were areas of natural competitive advantage the PPP should have explored.

Many of these companies you mentioned went under because they were not viable under their own weight.  Durable goods are levied with high duties and yet locals such as GRL, GRECO, glass, cotton, etc, were never resuscitated by privates.  They were just not sustainable even with the GoG granting duty-free concession on capital equipment!

TK, you are a professional economist and should get over your hatred for BJ and the PPP and be a bit more objective and truthful regarding the successes and failings of both the PPP and PNC.  Just remember, Guyana went bankrupt under the PNC model!

 

Actually, none of those companies were started after independence. They were pre-independence companies. Many start leaving because of Cooperative Socialism. The ERP was the final straw.

Nonsense, GRL was built in Soesdyke in the 70's, I saw it constructed as a school boy.  The glass factory was built by the Chinese on the Linden highway in the 70's.  The Tapir was built by Ainlim, in the 70's.  I did a school tour of GRECO on the East Coast in the 70's when it was just set up.  I agree ship-building (FIL) was pre-independence, but that was a victim of the industrial economics.

All those initiatives were kicked off after Guyana became a republic when the PNC tried to industrialize Guyana.  This was a good thought, but not all were ever viable.  They bled the existing economic engines and everything collapsed.

All these Guy-brands surfaced in the 70's!

Billy Ram Balgobin posted:

Discrediting Jagdeo at the expense of our economy is the silliest thing this gov't. can do.  They don't want Jagdeo's name to be associated with a major project like this.  This is the real reason for their opposition to the project.

Billy, cost of the project have to taken in to consideration,the size of Amelia hydro plant seems high comparable to others of the same size built in different countries.

Drugb posted:

TK posted:

ba$eman posted:

This was also part of the findings and conclusion of NORAD.  In the end, BJ and the PPP will be vindicated!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

AFHP was prioritised as the first hydropower plant because it was the only project with a full feasibility study completed, it has a higher plant load factor than the alternatives, a smaller reservoir and a levelised unit cost in the same range as the most attractive alternatives.

This paragraph is the problem. So, Amaila was the ONLY project with full feasibility study completed. HENCE, how do we know that Amaila is the best choice when no feasibility study was done on alternatives. For example, Tiger Fall? You cannot speak of alternatives when you have not even assessed the opportunity cost or alternatives. I have not read the report, but if this is what it says I would have serious doubt.

 

Are you saying that back in 2008, Amelia falls was chosen from hat(Jagdeo and PPP randomly chose) and no other pre feasibility study was done on any other river to narrow the most feasible to be Amelia?

X = Amaila; Y = Alternative. The report clearly says detail studies were done on X, but not the set of Y. If that's the case, the report cannot logically say anything about alternative hydro options. What it can say is that Amaila would likely be an improvement over the present 100% fossil fuel source, it's US$1 bill risk in a US$ 3 bill GDP economy notwithstanding. I think given this report the time has come to start implementing Amaila, knowing that in the history of big projects in Guyana there has always been cost overruns.

ba$eman posted:

TK posted:

ba$eman posted:

TK posted:

Of course, Amailia is necessary in the long run, but it is a matter of sequencing and optimal timing. Anyone with a good understanding of microeconomics and project analysis would have seen the risk early, even before the engineers formalize it. This is was so obvious. I keep saying Jagdeo needs to overhaul Accrebre college. It needs to be less ideological and more nationalistic. BTW, before some people start yapping about manufacturing, just take a moment to observe that Guyana once manufactured refrigerators, stoves, small SUV (tapir), small and medium-sized ships, garments, tires, radios, consumer products like toothpaste, etc, as well as having a variety of first-rate food processing capabilities WITHOUT HYDROELECTRICITY.

All of these were within a "planned economic" model of the PNC.  They existed because of heavy subsidies from the Govt.  Furthermore, the world has changed quite a lot from back then.  If I remember, the Brits were still a big auto producer back then.  Furthermore, back then, Guyana still had a reliable power source, which was not being reinvested, thus the eventual collapse.  All these PNC initiatives were done at the expense of the underlying economic backbone, all of which eventually gave way under the weight of these non-viable enterprises.

However, let me add, I do believe some of the initiatives were actually good and should have been taken up by the PPP Govt. I believe the downstream food and beverage industry were areas of natural competitive advantage the PPP should have explored.

Many of these companies you mentioned went under because they were not viable under their own weight.  Durable goods are levied with high duties and yet locals such as GRL, GRECO, glass, cotton, etc, were never resuscitated by privates.  They were just not sustainable even with the GoG granting duty-free concession on capital equipment!

TK, you are a professional economist and should get over your hatred for BJ and the PPP and be a bit more objective and truthful regarding the successes and failings of both the PPP and PNC.  Just remember, Guyana went bankrupt under the PNC model!

 

Actually, none of those companies were started after independence. They were pre-independence companies. Many start leaving because of Cooperative Socialism. The ERP was the final straw.

Nonsense, GRL was built in Soesdyke in the 70's, I saw it constructed as a school boy.  The glass factory was built by the Chinese on the Linden highway in the 70's.  The Tapir was built by Ainlim, in the 70's.  I did a school tour of GRECO on the East Coast in the 70's when it was just set up.  I agree ship-building (FIL) was pre-independence, but that was a victim of the industrial economics.

All those initiatives were kicked off after Guyana became a republic when the PNC tried to industrialize Guyana.  This was a good thought, but not all were ever viable.  They bled the existing economic engines and everything collapsed.

All these Guy-brands surfaced in the 70's!

Well there you go. Forbes did do good stuff and without hydro, yet ayoo denigrate him for just being a blackman. If you just do some studies of industrial policy you will see that Toyota received 40 years of govt protection before it became the great company it is. Ditto Samsung, Daewoo and many others. This is why you guys will need to stop teaching PYO kids hogwash and give them perspectives that would make them better government planners when they win elections. PPP has never had trouble mobilizing politically. It's problems are governance in an ethnically divided kuntry.