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Analysis: Better together – Regional seat formula favours alliance
The formula used to work out the 25 regional seats in the National Assembly will help secure those the APNU and the AFC won separately in 2011, and as a combined force the alliance should easily pick up one seat in Region 2.
FIRST A QUICK MATH LESSON
The formula known as the Hare quota or largest remainder method is best described in this column by KN’s Peeping Tom from July 12 2013. (If you know this you can skip): “Different geographic constituencies are allotted different numbers of seats. For example, Region One is allotted two seats; Region 9 is allotted one; Region 4 is allotted 7 seats and Region 6 is allotted three seats.
When the total number of votes cast is divided by the number of seats, this gives the total number of votes required to win a seat. If, for example, there are 35,000 votes cast and the total number of seats is 10, it means that for a party to win a seat it needs at least 3,500 votes.
Using this example, let us assume that three parties contest an election. Party A gets 13,000 votes; party B gets 12,000 and party C gets 10,000 votes. The votes that each party obtains will be divided by the electoral quota of 3,500 votes. This gives 3.71 to party A; 3.43 for party B, and 2.86 for party C.
What this means is that automatically party A gets three seats, party B gets three seats, and party C gets two seats. This gives a total of eight seats. But there are ten seats to be allotted. So how are the final two seats to be determined?
Under the largest remainder Hare quota method, the allocation of the two other seats is based on the largest remainder. As can be seen, the remainders are 0.71, 0.43 and 0.86 for parties A, B and C respectively. Under the largest remainder formula, party C has the largest remainder, 0.86. It is followed by party A 0.71 and then party C, 0.43.
Despite the fact that party B gained more votes that party C, under the largest remainder formula, party C gets the first remaining seat and party A the second. As such, the final allocation of seats is as follows: party A four seats; party B three seats; and party C three seats.
2011 Recalculated
In 2011 the PPP/C took both seats in Region 2 as it won 12,450 votes with one seat being worth 8,966, so it took the one seat and its remaining fraction of .38 was greater than the largest fraction of the APNU of .36. Very tight race there. However when the AFC’s vote is added the remainder is .60. So the alliance would have picked up the other seat and split the region. It seems highly likely that together they will get that second seat and the PPP/C will lose one.
This is the only region we can see where the formula clearly works in the alliance’s favour. However, in other regions the formula will certainly assist in securing the seats they won separately in 2011. For example in Region 4 where APNU won 4 seats, the combined ticket should comfortably repeat and might grab an extra seat from the PPP/C, which won three. In Region 8 the AFC won the single seat by a margin of only 254 votes. However when that margin is combined with the APNU the ticket won by 740 votes. And in Region 6 it is expected the combined opposition will easily secure the one seat the AFC won last time.
Finally we see the single seat in Region Nine in play: in 2011 the PPP won this with 4,135 votes compared to APNU’s 2004 -more than double. However the margin of victory is only 1182 when the AFC’s votes are counted which means a swing of only 592 would put it in the alliance column.
So what does this mean? The Region 2 seat looks a shoo-in for the alliance and if they win in Region 9 that would be a swing of two seats in the regional elections giving the opposition a 14 to 11 margin before the top up seats are calculated.
And that may be crucial if the elections are close. (The remaining 40 seats are decided by the total votes in the general elections being divided by 40 and these seats then being allocated proportionally. That’s about 8500 votes per seat whereas a regional seat can be picked up for as little as 995 votes) This might explain why both the Ramotar and Granger have been making numerous forays into the smaller regions such as Nine despite the expense and very few votes at stake nationally; and why that emphasis in recent weeks on Region 2 with the competing rallies.
In the end the election could come down to fractions, math fractions.
