Do you know that region 4 is 40% Indian?  And in fact has 35% of Guyana's Indian population?

But guess what those increased PPP votes in Region 4 did NOT swamp the increased coalition votes in Region 4.  The coalition increased its incremental margin by 9000 votes.  DOUBLE its overall margin of victory over the PPP. 

55% of the coalition votes came from Region 4.

Moses held the votes from 2011 in Region 5 and 6 which made a big difference.   The expectation was that the Indians would have move back to the PPP in droves when AFC joined with APNU.  That did not happened.  The coalition gave a lot of hope to Africans who turned out in great numbers because they saw a change to win a free and fair election for the first time.  The COALITION won, what so hard to understand.  Without the COALITION you will have the PPP in government.

So show me one of your post where you acknowledge this before.  You are being intellectually dishonest.

Here is the deal VVP.  Now I know you have a need to show that Moses delivered the winning margin, and not that huge increase in votes in regions 4 and 10.

Here is the deal.  In regions 5 and 6 APNU AFC won  34,300 in 2011.  The PPP won 45,900, or 57%.  In 2015 APNU AFC won 35,500 votes, or 1,200 more. The PPP won 56,100, or 10,200 more, getting 61% of the vote. 

Now the African mixed populations of these two areas are roughly 35%.  So if the African/mixed and the Indians had similar turn out in 2011 (we don't know that they did) then 28k voted. 

If the increased vote in those regions from that bloc was 50% of the increased vote in Region 10, or 12% that means that 3,300 more Africans and mixed voted in regions 5 and 6 compared to 2011.  Yet the coalition only added 1,200 more. Clearly they LOST Indian voters. 

This being quite blatant in Region 6 where the PPP took 103% of the incremental vote, more if I subtract out what the possible increase in the African/mixed vote in those areas would have been.

 I suspect that the increase in the African/mixed vote was more than 12%.

So where is your proof that Nagamootoo kept his 11k votes in Regions 5 and 6?

And the blatantly racist campaign by the PPP could also have been a factor motivating Africans out to vote, in addition to the fact that APNU just ran a good get out to vote campaign.

Not saying that Moses didn't play some part in all of this, but to lay 100% of the credit, as you and the other Moses cultists are trying to do is pure BULLSHYTE!

FACT.  APNU got its base out in record numbers.

FACT.  The PPP swamped any further inroads by Nagamootoo in its base by creating a tsunami of voters.  As I showed 75% of the increased vote in the PPP dominated coastal regions went to the PPP.

FACT.  Moses galvanized the Indo vote for the PPP.  He did NOT split it.

Acknowledge what?  Are you stupid?  Region 4 is 40% Indian and the PPP got its usual 40% of the votes.  Think that's a coincidence?  Where is there evidence of any Moses inroads into the PPP base in this region?

Listen you don't have any intelligent way to refute my argument because I take the time to analyze data and you just repeat what a lot of Moses cultists claim.

FACT.  This election was as much about race as any other election has been.  The PPP panicked the Indian and Amerindian vote on their side, and their blatantly racist tactics (combined upon their overall racism) galvanized the African and mixed vote out against them.  Neither side can boast about any inroads into the base of the other party.

Are you suggesting that the African/mixed population occupies moral high ground, so is more concerned with corruption than is the Indian population? I think not.  They just fear a PPP with a blatantly racist Jagdeo and swami at the head.  RACE!

All one can hope is that the coalition works by empowering the Prime Minister to do more, and by changing the constitution, by improving transparency and by allowing Guyanese a greater sense of inclusion, without regard to race, skin color, region, or social class.

THEN we will hope that 2020 will not be another repeat of a low grade civil war which we wage through the electoral process.

Listen dude I have wasted enough time with you; what in the table below don't you understand?  Can't you see that APNU+AFC maintained or increased their lead (minimal decrease in Berbice) in all regions including regions where PPP dominate?  Who is responsible for increasing the votes in PPP areas?

Here is more information to ponder:

Apparently simple arithmetic fails you.  Now look at Regions 2,3, 5 and 6 and tell me that the PPP didn't increase their margins.  They won MORE incremental votes than did APNU AFC did.

Can you do this and stop embarrassing yourself?

Let me help you.  Subtract the PPP total from the APNU AFC total.  If the result isn't negative then the PPP INCREASED its margin.

Region 6 might challenge you.  So here goes.  The PPP increased its votes by 7300, while APNU AFC LOST 300, which means that the PPP INCREASED its margins by 7600.  Now can you understand this.  Also understand something else. 

Africans and mixed voters account for 30% of the population in this region. Elsewhere in Guyana there were double digit increases in the turn put of this base.  So when you factor this in, the splitting of the Indo vote by Moses looks even LESS likely.

Face it.  The PPP painted Moses as an Uncle Tom out to sell Indians into Granger, who they portrayed as the return of Burnham.  Moses couldn't offset this, so didn't bring in as many votes as he and others had hoped.  In fact he LOST Indo votes in Berbice, when one factors in the higher African/mixed turn out.

LUCKY for the coalition the PNC base turned out in RECORD numbers to offset this problem that Moses had.

Some of these numbers look crooked. The election was based on racial voting patterns. Moses did not split the Indian vote.  

Do you even understand what this means.  How does this further your point.

55% of the coalition votes came from Region 4, so obviously this was an African/mixed vote.  Given that this is way more than the 44% which Region 4 represents.

This election was Guyana's normal low grade ethnically based civil war and you have yet to prove otherwise.

African/mixed Guyanese are afraid of East Indians.  Amerindians and East Indians are afraid of African and African identified mixed.  NOTHING changed in 2015.

Banna I am an engineer don't tell me about maths.  The question is not who won each region the question is how did the incremental numbers contribute to the overall win.  Going by your math the PPP won since 36,467 is larger than 32,148.  The increment is calculated on different bases where the base for the incremental PPP numbers is not the same base as the increment for the APNU+AFC.

You may understand mathematics as it refers to engineering issues. When it comes to social analysis you are a dunce.

The fact that you conclude that any one would think that the PPP won because its incremental vote was higher shows how simple you are.  One needs to go into each region to see what happened there.

In PPP strongholds of 2,3,5, and 6 the PPP either maintained or INCREASED its share of the votes, despite the fact that within each of these regions 30-40% of the voters are African/mixed and there is no reason to suggest that they wouldn't have delivered a double digit increase in votes for the coalition than they did in the core PNC areas.

The plan was for Moses to split the Indian vote to allow a coalition victory.  He did NOT split the Indian vote, and in fact LOST many of the Indo votes that he won in 2011.  When one factors in a higher PPP vote clearly the winning margins did NOT come because Moses made inroads into the PPP vote.  It came from HIGHER turn out of the PNC constituency.  A 24% increase in the turn out in Linden, and an 18% in G/town and the black villages of Demerara.

You have FAILED to show otherwise!

I will concede a significant cross over Indian vote in G/town as the coalition vote there was massive.  I just don't see it elsewhere.  SORRY!

You will never see a damn thing because you are literal....like a counting horse at a country fair.

Shoppenhaur said the world is will and idea. The idea in the Guyanese political ethos that a coalition can win was engendered by the thinking bengs willing an idea into existence. Without Moses, that political ethos does not exist.

It matters not a damn what numbers of black or indians are in the final head count of voters for the coalition. That they believed and willed themselves to thinking they can win and came out and voted and won is what matters.

I see it matters not that we once again wage a low grade civil war, conducted through an election process, and that large numbers can be motivated to respond to a racist campaign by the PPP.  And that the panicked response of the other side might have led to open violence, but for the quick response of Granger.

OK.  Fine.  But I don't know any where else in the English speaking Caribbean where elections are as dismal as they are in Guyana.  Definitely not Trinidad.  Don't think Suriname either.