APNU/AFC Govt spent 5 years papering over cracks in economy – economist

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Ramakant-P

July 26, 2020

…says elections impasse can cause economic collapse

As Guyana is in the midst of an economic slowdown, economist Dhanraj Singh has warned that the COVID-19 pandemic is not solely to blame, but rather the coalition Government’s mismanagement of the macroeconomy for the past five years.

Singh, who is the Executive Director of Guyana Budget Policy Institute, in a letter to the editor, cited the A Partnership for National Unity/Alliance For Change (APNU/AFC) Government’s closure of the Guyana Sugar Corporation (GuySuCo) sugar estates, the consistent selling off billions of dollars’ worth of foreign assets and burdensome taxes, as some poor decisions.
Prominently among ill-conceived schemes of the Granger Administration, he said, was the dismantling of GuySuCo and the downsizing of the sugar industry. He added that this ill-advised series of actions immediately created massive unemployment and a significant loss of export earnings and foreign currency.

“As if that were not enough, the totally unimaginative Granger administration sought to ‘tax its way to prosperity” by imposing burdensome taxes on households through the elimination of critical VAT exemptions and the exponential increases in service fees,” Singh also wrote.
The economist also cited the Bank of Guyana’s first-quarter report and statistical bulletin for 2020. In the bulletin, the bank revealed that Guyana’s foreign asset holdings declined by 5.6 per cent during the period under review. In fact, Singh noted that foreign assets have declined by more than 18 per cent since 2015.

Selling off foreign assets
According to him, it means that over the last five years the APNU/AFC Government liquidated $23 billion worth of foreign asset holdings. Singh questioned why foreign assets would be sold off to such an extent if the economy is as solid as Finance Minister Winston Jordan has given the impression.

“While there are few good reasons to sell foreign assets in times of a growing economy, when you consider the sale of these assets alongside the other policy decisions, such as those mentioned above, it is quite evident that the likely reason for doing so was to replace lost foreign currency earnings in the foreign exchange market to keep the exchange rate stable,” Singh said.
Singh also used the example of non-performing loans, that is loans for which debtors are in default and cannot pay off. According to Singh, non-performing loans increased by 10.1 per cent between 2015 and 2020. And it’s likely to get worse.
Another problem that Singh highlighted was that $12 billion has been added to the deficit in the public sector savings account. According to him, this brings the total deficit at the end of the first quarter to approximately $83 billion.

Reserves
Economists generally recommend that countries have enough money in their international reserves to cover three months of their import bills. But Singh highlighted that in Guyana’s case, international reserves at the end of the first quarter fell short of this recommended amount. In addition, the balance of payment deficit worsened.
“None of this is surprising,” Singh wrote. “Sugar exports which in 2014 earned foreign currency equivalent to over G$18 billion have gradually declined to less than G$6 billion in 2019 and well on its way to earning less in 2020. Rice exports which have been one of the main foreign currency earners over the last five years still earn less in a year than it did in 2014.”
“In fact, from 2011 to 2014, both the quantity and value of rice exported grew uninterruptedly. The same is true of timber exports. From 2011 to 2014, the value of timber exports grew uninterruptedly and peaked at G$11 billion but has gradually declined to less than $7 billion in 2019 and is likely to continue down this path,” he added.
He noted that this all combines to impact Guyana’s foreign currency market. And notwithstanding the improved production of gold, which accounted for US$38.8 million in export earnings during the first quarter, Singh cautioned that gold is high risk and unreliable as a revenue earner.
“Despite good performance in the mining and quarrying sector, it is not a major employer and therefore cannot replace the jobs and income losses from the other sectors. The same is true for the oil sector; it is a highly machine-driven sector and would not be a major employer of labour or a source of household incomes.”
The distressed state of the economy at the end of the first quarter of 2020, he pointed out, was the result of years of policy decisions, albeit poor ones, of a legitimate Government (for the most part), a sitting Parliament, and multiple national budgets.
It has been almost five months since General and Regional Elections were held, yet a winner has not been declared. While a recount has shown that the opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP) won the elections, APNU/AFC has made a concerted effort to delay the transition of Government.
During this time, the country has been in a standby mode amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Government has provided no stimulus package for the economy and little help for those who have lost their jobs.
The situation is compounded by the fact that since there is no Parliament or fully functional Government, oil monies held offshore Guyana cannot be accessed. Singh, therefore, stressed that elections must be resolved as quickly as possible or all will suffer and sectors of the economy will collapse.
“If this election crisis is not brought to finality, entire sectors of the economy will collapse, unemployment will set historical records, the pace at which livelihoods are already being destroyed will increase even more acutely and unfortunately, lives will be lost, abject poverty in its worse forms will rise sharply, and decades of progress will be wiped out in almost an instant,” Singh noted. (G3)

https://guyanatimesgy.com/apnu...n-economy-economist/

Replies sorted oldest to newest

Ramakant-PSenior Member

No comments? Just checking.

7/26/2011:06 AM

Former Member

Incompetence has always been the PNC's trademark. No surprise that they failed so miserably.

7/26/2011:25 AM

TotaramSenior Member

@Former Member posted:
Incompetence has always been the PNC's trademark. No surprise that they failed so miserably.

Have a look at the economic statistics issued by international agencies and you'll see that the economy under the Coalition did relatively well. They did not fail miserably. That's part of a narrative pushed by Jagdeo because he thinks he alone knows about the economy and a whole bunch of people believe him.

7/26/2011:40 AM

Ramakant-PSenior Member

@Totaram posted:
Have a look at the economic statistics issued by international agencies and you'll see that the economy under the Coalition did relatively well. They did not fail miserably. That's part of a narrative pushed by Jagdeo because he thinks he alone knows about the economy and a whole bunch of people believe him.

You are trying hard to make us believe that you did not make a mistake when you support the coalition. Why don't you list some of the things the Coalition did for Guyana. Jagdeo did a better job than the Coalition which is comprised of ten useless Parties.

Their President is a dictator who has no idea of how to run a country.

7/26/2012:05 PM

TotaramSenior Member

@Ramakant-P posted:
You are trying hard to make us believe that you did not make a mistake when you support the coalition. Why don't you list some of the things the Coalition did for Guyana. Jagdeo did a better job than the Coalition which is comprised of ten useless Parties.
Their President is a dictator who has no idea of how to run a country.

I am not trying to convince you or anyone else of anything. The facts speak for themselves. Just go and look at IMF, World Bank, Transparency International etc. figures. Jagdeo conned and together with Ali et al. is conning the Guyanese public and particularly IndoGuyanese. It is really a tragedy. For a group that likes to boast of how superior they are they are in reality quite backward.

7/26/2012:48 PM

Ramakant-PSenior Member

@Totaram posted:
I am not trying to convince you or anyone else of anything. The facts speak for themselves. Just go and look at IMF, World Bank, Transparency International etc. figures. Jagdeo conned and together with Ali et al. is conning the Guyanese public and particularly IndoGuyanese. It is really a tragedy. For a group that likes to boast of how superior they are they are in reality quite backward.

What facts are you talking about? You cannot list the achievements of the coalition because there aren't any. The Indo_guyanese are the ones who develop the economy and the country and you called them 'backward'. How stupid are you? The country was able to sustain itself due to the fact that it was Jagdeo's infrastructure which continued to flourish until the coalition destroyed it. They succeeded in bankrupting the country in just 5 years. It is indeed a tragedy that the PNC cannot run a country.

7/26/2010:35 PM

Ramakant-PSenior Member

One of the biggest failures of the APNU/AFC coalition is in the area of Job creation.

Presidential Candidate of the People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C), Dr. Irfaan Ali, had provided a detailed plan which would see more than 50,000 jobs being created.

7/26/2010:54 PM

cainTired old hippie

@Ramakant-P posted:
One of the biggest failures of the APNU/AFC coalition is in the area of Job creation.
Presidential Candidate of the People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C), Dr. Irfaan Ali, had provided a detailed plan which would see more than 50,000 jobs being created.

If he really cares for the people, I wonder if he will assist APNU in bringing this to fruition to help the jobless if/when when he loses?

7/26/2011:26 PM

Former Member

@Totaram posted:
Have a look at the economic statistics issued by international agencies and you'll see that the economy under the Coalition did relatively well. They did not fail miserably. That's part of a narrative pushed by Jagdeo because he thinks he alone knows about the economy and a whole bunch of people believe him.

Are you saying that the BOG report released recently showing the Government accounts negative status is incorrect?

7/26/2011:47 PM

MitwahSenior Member

@Former Member posted:
Are you saying that the BOG report released recently showing the Government accounts negative status is incorrect?

Please provide a link to BOG report that you are referring to.

7/27/206:35 AM

TotaramSenior Member

@Ramakant-P posted:
What facts are you talking about? You cannot list the achievements of the coalition because there aren't any. The Indo_guyanese are the ones who develop the economy and the country and you called them 'backward'. How stupid are you? The country was able to sustain itself due to the fact that it was Jagdeo's infrastructure which continued to flourish until the coalition destroyed it. They succeeded in bankrupting the country in just 5 years. It is indeed a tragedy that the PNC cannot run a country.

I referred you to statistics from international agencies and you proceeded to display your backwardness. This has become typical behaviour from PPP sycophants. And you object when they are called "chupid"?

7/27/208:53 AM

Ramakant-PSenior Member

@Totaram posted:
I referred you to statistics from international agencies and you proceeded to display your backwardness. This has become typical behaviour from PPP sycophants. And you object when they are called "chupid"?

The 'statistics' is a figment of your imagination. Look at the damn country and you will how backward the PNC turn Guyana into. Guyana was developed under the PPP. The Coalition took over a country with a strong infrastructure and which they neglected. Why don't you take off your rose-colored glasses and try to see past your nose? So far, you have said anything about the achievements of the APNU/AFC government. Where is it? Why don't you list them? You called people names and then think you are an intelligent person. You are so wrong.

7/27/209:03 AM

Ramakant-PSenior Member

Just checking. Waiting for your answer.

7/27/209:10 AM

Former Member

@Totaram posted:
I referred you to statistics from international agencies and you proceeded to display your backwardness. This has become typical behaviour from PPP sycophants. And you object when they are called "chupid"?

The IMF had cautioned the Govt about accelerating public spending. This was shortly after the voted themselves the largest salary increases.

7/27/209:12 AM

Ramakant-PSenior Member

@Former Member posted:
The IMF had cautioned the Govt about accelerating public spending. This was shortly after the voted themselves the largest salary increases.

Totaram doesn't want to see that.

7/27/209:14 AM

TotaramSenior Member

@Ramakant-P posted:
The 'statistics' is a figment of your imagination. Look at the damn country and you will how backward the PNC turn Guyana into. Guyana was developed under the PPP. The Coalition took over a country with a strong infrastructure and which they neglected. Why don't you take off your rose-colored glasses and try to see past your nose? So far, you have said anything about the achievements of the APNU/AFC government. Where is it? Why don't you list them? You called people names and then think you are an intelligent person. You are so wrong.

You are backward prick. Use Google to find the stats. Chupid man...

7/27/209:42 AM

Ramakant-PSenior Member

@Totaram posted:
You are backward prick. Use Google to find the stats. Chupid man...

Look at Guyana you will see the stats as I did. You are the unintelligent one. You do not have the ability to respond to my posts in a civilized way. Every post you made you have to be negative and rude.

I ask you again. What are the achievements of the APNU/AFC coalition Government? I am not saying that you are one but you certainly act like a bytch.

7/27/209:50 AM

TotaramSenior Member

@Ramakant-P posted:
Look at Guyana you will see the stats as I did. You are the unintelligent one. You do not have the ability to respond to my posts in a civilized way. Every post you made you have to be negative and rude.
I ask you again. What are the achievements of the APNU/AFC coalition Government? I am not saying that you are one but you certainly act like a bytch.

You are a backward prick. Chupid coolie

7/27/209:52 AM

Ramakant-PSenior Member

@Totaram posted:
You are a backward prick. Chupid coolie

You can only speak about yourself and your mama. You have nothing constructive to say. When you were born, your mama asked the doctor if it's a boy or girl, and the doctor replied, yep!

This where you remind me to go for my walk! Talk to you later.

7/27/2010:03 AM

TotaramSenior Member

@Ramakant-P posted:
You can only speak about yourself and your mama. You have nothing constructive to say. When you were born, your mama asked the doctor if it's a boy or girl, and the doctor replied, yep!
This where you remind me to go for my walk! Talk to you later.

Swami did gee you lime fe suck and now you suckin anything and everything.

7/27/201:17 PM

Ramakant-PSenior Member

@Totaram posted:
Swami did gee you lime fe suck and now you suckin anything and everything.

Who is the prick now? Who is the Katahar Guyanese? Who is now behaving like an ass? Who is the lowest of the low? Who is the wanabee Blackman? Who is behaving like a bytch?

Come on, prove me right.

7/28/209:39 AM

MitwahSenior Member

@Ramakant-P posted:
Who is the prick now? Who is the Katahar Guyanese? Who is now behaving like an ass? Who is the lowest of the low? Who is the wanabee Blackman? Who is behaving like a bytch?
Come on, prove me right.

You.

7/28/2010:36 AM

kpHonorary Member

@cain posted:
If he really cares for the people, I wonder if he will assist APNU in bringing this to fruition to help the jobless if/when when he loses?

This time around, Dr Ali will give jobs to Indians. Will take a page from Volga Lawerence book, jobs only for Blackman./ PNC card holders. APNU/AFC considered Dead Meat, waste of time to negotiate with losers. Many will go to jail for treason, big time criminals.

7/28/2011:01 AM

TotaramSenior Member

@Ramakant-P posted:
Who is the prick now? Who is the Katahar Guyanese? Who is now behaving like an ass? Who is the lowest of the low? Who is the wanabee Blackman? Who is behaving like a bytch?
Come on, prove me right.

You, you mama an you sissy.

7/28/2011:05 AM

TotaramSenior Member

@kp posted:
This time around, Dr Ali will give jobs to Indians. Will take a page from Volga Lawerence book, jobs only for Blackman./ PNC card holders. APNU/AFC considered Dead Meat, waste of time to negotiate with losers. Many will go to jail for treason, big time criminals.

Statements like this will fuel the civil war. It won't be pretty.

7/28/2011:06 AM

Ramakant-PSenior Member

@Totaram posted:
You, you mama an you sissy.

Again, you prove me right. You are what I say you are.

7/28/2011:15 AM

TotaramSenior Member

@Ramakant-P posted:
Again, you prove me right. You are what I say you are.

Basidee Ramakant...chupidee man from cove an jaan.

7/28/2011:18 AM

kpHonorary Member

@Totaram posted:
Statements like this will fuel the civil war. It won't be pretty.

There was no civil war when the PNC stated and acted in similar. It shows how civil the PPP and their supporters behave, yes! if the shoe was on the other foot the PNC would have started a War, they are good at that.

This time is different, the Indians will NEVER again be trampled by the Blacks, years yonder when Indians were laughed at, that they are scared of Black Bullies, but not today. The Indians own many security firms in Guyana, they own guns and have the financial means to protect themselves. Just watch and see!

7/28/2011:22 AM

TotaramSenior Member

@kp posted:
There was no civil war when the PNC stated and acted in similar. It shows how civil the PPP and their supporters behave, yes! if the shoe was on the other foot the PNC would have started a War, they are good at that.
This time is different, the Indians will NEVER again be trampled by the Blacks, years yonder when Indians were laughed at, that they are scared of Black Bullies, but not today. The Indians own many security firms in Guyana, they own guns and have the financial means to protect themselves. Just watch and see!

All this is easy for you to say from Toronto . When the action starts your tune will change.

7/28/2011:59 AM

Former Member

@kp posted:
There was no civil war when the PNC stated and acted in similar. It shows how civil the PPP and their supporters behave, yes! if the shoe was on the other foot the PNC would have started a War, they are good at that.
This time is different, the Indians will NEVER again be trampled by the Blacks, years yonder when Indians were laughed at, that they are scared of Black Bullies, but not today. The Indians own many security firms in Guyana, they own guns and have the financial means to protect themselves. Just watch and see!

Yes, KP bhaiya, we saw the post about Dave's Security Firm and the big guns!

7/28/206:23 PM

kpHonorary Member

@Former Member posted:
Yes, KP bhaiya, we saw the post about Dave's Security Firm and the big guns!

So you know Dave ? He owns a lot but no security firm but I know of two firms owned by Indians, may I remind you this time money is no problem.

7/28/206:49 PM

TotaramSenior Member

@kp posted:
So you know Dave ? He owns a lot but no security firm but I know of two firms owned by Indians, may I remind you this time money is no problem.

Was money a problem last time? You are writing like you are a big time fanancier but when the sh.t hits the fan you and your money will disappear.

7/28/208:16 PM

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Topics

…says elections impasse can cause economic collapse

As Guyana is in the midst of an economic slowdown, economist Dhanraj Singh has warned that the COVID-19 pandemic is not solely to blame, but rather the coalition Government’s mismanagement of the macroeconomy for the past five years.

Presidential Candidate of the People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C), Dr. Irfaan Ali, had provided a detailed plan which would see more than 50,000 jobs being created.

Presidential Candidate of the People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C), Dr. Irfaan Ali, had provided a detailed plan which would see more than 50,000 jobs being created.

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