Analysis: AFC failed to deliver in Berbice

Even I find this terribly unfair to the contribution of the AFC. Without the AFC there would be no Granger Administration. Talk about ingratitude. Money and votes and the margin of victory and still no love from the PNC. The AFC held enough Indian support against a massive onslaught from the PPP. I know as I was part and parcel of said onslaught.

I have plenty of respect for Uncle Moses' performance in spite of a massive anti-Moses campaign.

Moses did enough to WIN despite the vicious hatred towards him by PPP leaders in the media and on the campaign. In the next election Moses will be controlling the media and will bring handouts to them.

HAHAHAHA  DICTATORSHIP PNC STYLE ALIVE AND WELL.   CONTROLLING THE MEDIA!!!!!!!!!!!  I THOUGHT GOVT DONT HAVE ANY BUSINESS IN MEDIA.  AH  TELL AL YUH WHEN THESE ROBBER BARONS COME NEAR AL YUH, HOLD AL YUH POCKET TIGHT ALL AL YUH ARE ROBBER BARONS AND WORST!!!

APNU & AFC looking good.....

there seems to be no Goat Shit Issues between them

https://www.facebook.com/apnuafc?_rdr

look at dis race-mongering, mangy daag hustling to lap up he own stink vomit, hoping that people not paying attention

how soon before u run sniffing round near Moses bt with warmed-over Hindutva sweet nothings, eh?

APNU would be smart not to do that.  However, they are messing up by not honoring the Accord.  Hope AFC would not have to exercise the nuclear option later.

You mean you were a PPP supporter?  What the F I hearing hay.

The Cummingsburg Accord is simply a private matter between the PNC and AFC.

By the next election in 2020, the AFC will be removed from government by the PNC and it will be similar to the PNC and the United Force from 1964.

Yea I unfortunately got put under some severe pressure by some of my closest lifelong friends to hold my nose and offer support to the PPP for the sake of the Indo Tribe. I'm not unhappy that the PPP lost.

So you were joining the Akkabre tribe to keep the Indians in bondage and communist influence?

Yes! But I recall the post 1997 Beat/Kill Buff Coolie strategy of the PNC and deemed that to be a greater evil. Like many Indos, I was torn between an HIV vs. AIDS dilemma.

well, u made your 'choice' . . . what's the problem now?

APNU will not do that.

Without AFC, APNU could have never won an election in this life.  PNC never won an election before.

It is true APNU could not get into government without the AFC.

It is also true AFC did not deliver the 11 percent Indian votes it promised APNU.

If the AFC had delivered, there would not have been a narrow 4,506 lead above the PPP. A bigger margin would have been a more convincing APNU+AFC victory.

Freedom House believes this narrow margin is questionable.

Looks like caribny moved on to write garbage for the Explainer. 

Gil, how much is 11% of the Indian vote?

An old Democratic National Committee hand in Washington said this and I say it to you "A win is a win."

The AFC brought the margin of victory even if it was a single vote. Even if it was only Moses' personal vote.

I don't know why AFC is being held to this fantastical "11 percent Indo votes" standard. There is no one who seriously believes that APNU won this election without AFC. AFC delivered enough. That's all. Why do you have to diminish the AFC's contribution?

33 seats in parliament is just as good as 43 seats. Only 44 would have made a real difference as that would be 2/3.

Me nah diminish de AFC contribution. I'm just stating the two variables in the equation.

No one can really say. No one is sure about the Indo percentage of the Official List and we're definitely not sure about the ethnic breakdown of the May 11th voters as a whole and certainly not by party.

We can only make educated guesses. Most of us have pegged Indians at 45% to 48% of the voters. And that is a total guess based on scant data and nuff suppositions and educated extrapolations.

Banna ah cross examining the man.  Ah getting ready for a hearing...I does write cross examination questions and give the Department lawyer to present since I ain't a lawyer,

May I ask what kinda law?

Administrative law, but everything is just like a regular court room.  It is for a rate case in Long Island that you might be reading about in NY.

Cool. I've appeared on behalf of candidates before the NYC Board of elections which is an administrative proceeding under state law for years. I also used to be a legislative aide to both chambers. I cut my political teeth as a M&C Employee.

P.S...My first job was as Legislative Director for the Assembly Chair of the Real Property Tax Committee.

Alright, VVP, I was checking some stats.

When the AFC promised APNU 11 percent Indian votes, I am assuming 11 percent PPP votes.

In 2011, the PPP earned 166,340 votes. 11% of that equals 18,297.

In 2011, APNU+AFC got 175,011 votes. That is 8,671 more votes than the PPP.

In 2015, however, APNU+AFC got only 4,506 more votes than the PPP, which is a far lesser margin than in 2011.

By themselves, APNU+AFC increased their votes from 175,011 to 207,200, ie by 32,189 votes.

But PPP also increased its votes from 166,340 to 202, 694, ie by 36,354 votes.

As you can see, from the two increases PPP performed better than APNU+AFC, 36,354 AGAINST 32,189.

It is generally agreed that APNU by itself performed better on May 11 than in 2011. The AFC contribution to the coalition victory was below expectations.

Although a win is a win, APNU supporters justifiably and reasonably can argue that AFC got more in the coalition government than it deserves.

Lemme help you out with something that may add a little more clarity to this tortured masochistic extrapolation of yours:

2011 Election:

APNU+AFC  33 seats

PPP/C       32 seats

2015 Election:

APNU+AFC  33 seats

PPP/C       32 seats

Me Lard, Jurors, Fish (Scale an Anscale type) for the forgoing reasons, the AFC delivered. They held the line especially considering the conventional wisdom that Indos just won't cast a vote for a PNC Coalition.

First time PNC ever win an election.  AFC made it possible.

Even Carib would agree with that.

Here Gil, This is a way to say that AFC got 11% of PPP votes.

For AFC to get 19,448 "Indians" in 2015 it means that 53% of the 37081 are Indians which is reasonable.  The bottom line is that without a detailed survey you have to assume that all parties maintained thier 2011 percentages because that is what the final 2015 results reflect (same distribution as 2011).  HERE comes craibny!

For the PPP to get 49.3 % of the votes cast, there has to be a movement away from the PNC.

The PPP was sporting a 39.2 % at the polls taken, based on Indian support, before the election.  That means 10.1 % changed their minds.

The East Indian votes the AFC got was much more dispersed this time.

True.  Maybe a lot in region 4.

yes!!!

I have zero interest in Moses Nagamootoo politically. He is unfortunately no more than a typical Jaganite. He views Guyana through a Marxian framework. In other words, he plays checkers in politics. Another Indian Pied Piper in the mold of Cumrag Cheddi.

Those are unfair comments about Bro. Mose.

You must imbibe in the cool aid of the Capitalist/Imperialist framework which is quite inadequate to analyze society.

Nothing is wrong with the Marxian framework, which explains society better.

Nothing wrong with Cde Cheddi either.

Jay ......Ravi Dev and his Parasites believe they own the Indians.

This is not about Cheddi Jagan, Burnham or Rodney

This is not about Marxism, Communism, Lenninism or Capitalism.

This is about Ravi

being a Crab Louse,

Ravi Fought the PPP

and with Moses in the PPP.....

Ravi was Destroyed.

Ravi Joined Jagdeo to Fight AFC

and with Moses in the AFC.....

Ravi was Destroyed Again.

Look at Ravi Record

Plan A....B....and C

Ravi Failed.....

he is a Dunce

Ravi Failed Again....

he is a Bigger Dunce

Ravi Failed Again..& Again.....

he is the Biggest Dunce...

Now Crab Louse Ravi

Come up with Plan Zee...

Jagdeo & Ramotar

is 2 PPP Failure

So let us mek

Ravi PPP Leader...

Ravi like Jagan again

Ravi like Kwame...

Ravi Born Again...

Poor Jihaji Junkie..

caribny did no such thing.  It only goes to show the facts that all know.  A massive APNU turn out was what was mainly responsible.

Had APNU not delivered record turn out the Moses sliver wouldn't have mattered.  Linden is going to remind Granger of that fact, every time his petty foolishness with that town becomes obvious.

Please repeat this to the AFC Indo fascists who are using the sliver of an Indo vote to hold the coalition hostage and to seize control of this APNU dominated govt.

FACT.  Had APNU not done an excellent job in turning out its voters that 11-15k AFC Indo vote wouldn't have mattered.  In fact it seems evident that a fair percentage of the Indians who voted for Nagamotoo in 2011 returned to the PPP this year, accounting for a decent share of that 36k in increase in PPP votes.

It was a MASSIVE APNU turn out, combined with a sliver of an AFC indo vote which contributed to the victory. It is share nonsense to fully attribute to the AFC Indo vote 100% of the credit for the coalition win...

It is clear that those who wish to attribute 100% of the victory to the AFC Indo vote do so for reasons of exaggerating their importance within the coalition.  They do so as they wish a covert take over of APNU and the AFC.  These are PPP folks, imbued with rage, but lacking the backbone to confront Jagdeo, so they seek relevance by attempting to take over other parties.

Better believe that people within BOTH APNU and the AFC are monitoring these AFC Indo fascists people.  In fact these Indo fascists are daily undermining Nagamootoo's ability to do his job. They continue to display a total inability to function within a multi ethnic context, unless it is one where non Indians are reduced to tokens.  This is why Jay screams how fair to Afro Guyanese the PPP was.

Total nonsense.  There was a massive turn out in PNC strongholds.  The mix of APNU+AFC votes was vastly different in 2015 than it was in 2011.

In addition the PPP INCREASED its votes in 2015, this after losing votes in EVERY election since 1997.  How was the PPP able to do so?  By promoting Moses as a self hating person who claimed that he isn't an Indian, and whose intent is to sell out Indians to a brutal African dictatorship.  The Indo vote forgot about its frustration with the PPPs corruption and arrogance, and instead voted in fear of an African dictatorship.

The dynamics of the election in 2015 was motivated tremendous by ethnic insecurity on BOTH sides, due to the tribal tactics of the PPP.  Those who refused to vote in 2006 and in 2011 came back in full force in 2015.

The total valid votes in 2015 was 410k.  HIGHER than it was in  1997 when it was 400k. Considerably higher than it was in 2006 (338k) and 2011 (342k).  Almost 70k additional voters came out in 2015, when compared to 2011.

So how can you claim that the voting was the same?  APNU and the PPP (the beneficiaries of ethnic insecurity) clearly benefitted.  The AFC survived, only because it was embedded with the APNU. 

The PPP took back some of its votes lost to the AFC in 2011, just as in 2011, and most assuredly 2015 APNU took back some of the votes lost to the AFC in 2006.

FACT.  With the AFC embedded with the APNU its role as a 3rd force ended. Only the truly naïve would have a belief that the coalition wouldn't be APNU dominated, given its much stronger political structure and support base.

This is what Carib says.  A RECORD turn out in PNC strongholds, combined with a sliver of an AFC Indian vote, contributed to the coalition win.

Now why do you refuse to give APNU credit for this massive turn out, not only on election day, but also at campaign events. 

FACT.  Even in majority Indian areas the VAST MAJORITY of the people showing up to coalition events were blacks.  Did these folks not show up those events in Indo areas would have been empty, and the AFC Indo faction would have been greatly embarrassed.

Now instead of thanking APNU for saving your collective hides, you scream that you are 100% responsible for victory.  This because you wish to control 60% of the appointments, and take over the functioning of both the APNU and the AFC.

Your motives have been spotted a mile away.  You then wonder why Moses is being so closely monitored.