APNU SHOULD THROW THE BALL BACK IN THE AFC’S COURT
December 14, 2014, By KNews, Filed Under Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom, Source -Kaieteur News
Last Friday, I examined the counter-proposal made by the AFC to lead a pro-democracy coalition to contest next year’s general elections. I described this proposal as a case of the AFC demanding “leadership or nothing” of any coalition to oppose the PPPC.
This is not the first time that the AFC has issued such an ultimatum to APNU, the opposition partnership with the most seats in the National Assembly. At the commencement of the 10th parliament, APNU had wanted its candidate to become Speaker. The AFC however said that it wanted the position of Speaker and it was either its candidate or nothing. It made it clear that if it did not get its way it was prepared to support the PPPC’s candidate. In the end, the AFC had its way, even though they had to substitute Moses for Raphael.
APNU therefore has had its experience of how the AFC behaves when it wants something. APNU should know by now how the AFC operates. The AFC was a short while ago not interested in a pre-election coalition. It was not even interested in having some of its leaders go on the same platform with APNU. It said no to a pre-election coalition with APNU.
Then it changed its mind and said it would be part of a pro-democracy coalition, but only if it led that coalition. In other words it was throwing the ball back into APNU’s court, placing the responsibility for any coalition on APNU. It is APNU now which will have to explain why, if it is so keen to get rid of the PPP from office, it is unwilling to have the AFC lead a coalition of APNU, the AFC and other forces. It is APNU which has to cede the leadership of any pre-election coalition to the AFC.
There are two possible ways for APNU to approach this counter-proposal by the AFC. One way is for APNU to reject the position of the AFC. It has been suckered before. APNU should make it known that it is willing to discuss a coalition without any preconditions. Throw the ball back at the AFC!
This is one way to approach the issue and expose the political opportunism and craftiness of the AFC. But there is another way. That way is to see the merit in the AFC’s proposal if indeed it can be established that the AFC is serious about a coalition with APNU and other pro-democracy forces.
Why is there merit if the AFC is serious?
The only way that the PPP is going to be removed from office is if one opposition party or a pre-election coalition of opposition parties gets a plurality of the votes. The AFC cannot win a plurality on its own. This is a mission impossible.
Neither is it likely that the AFC can steal enough votes away from the PPP to deny the PPP a plurality. The PPP has virtually re-won the support that it had surrendered to the AFC during the 2011 elections. The team of persons responsible for the AFC making inroads into PPP constituencies has fallen out of favour with the AFC or is no longer around. As such, the AFC is not likely to steal any more seats from the PPP.
But even if the AFC is able to repeat its 2011 performance in the strongholds of the PPP, this is not going to be good enough to deny the PPP a plurality. Even APNU is not likely to stand any chance of obtaining a plurality. It is improbable for APNU to increase its share of the electorate from 40% to 50%. That is simply not going to happen. APNU should not create false expectations amongst its supporters that it can increase its share of the electorate by 10%. It cannot. The only way for the PPP to be denied a plurality is for a coalition of opposition parties led by the AFC.
If the AFC leads an opposition coalition, it will help dissolve ethnic insecurity amongst supporters of the PPP. They will feel that with the AFC holding the Executive Presidency that they will have less to lose than if APNU holds the presidency. There are many supporters of the PPP who are fed up with the mediocrity demonstrated by the Jagdeo and now the Ramotar administration. They want change, but they do not want APNU. But they are likely to support or at least to feel less insecure with the AFC leading such an opposition coalition.
If APNU is serious about bringing about a change in government at the next elections, it should consider ceding the leadership of any opposition coalition to the AFC. If APNU wants to put the country before its own partisan interests, it should allow the AFC to lead a pre-election coalition. As opportunistic and mischievous as the AFC’s proposal is, it is the only way for the opposition to gain the plurality necessary to unseat the PPPC.
Source - http://www.kaieteurnewsonline....k-in-the-afcs-court/
