APNU WANTS A DRY RUN
September 11, 2014, By KNews, Filed Under Features/Columnists, Peeping Tom, Source - Kaieteur News
After the 2006 elections, it was the PNCR which demanded that a new house to house registration be launched. The concern then was that there were large numbers of persons on the Register of List of Electors who had since migrated and whose continued presence on Final Voters’ List presented two concerns.
The first concern was that the large number of non-resident Guyanese on the list could open the floodgates for fraud in the sense that persons could vote on their behalf. It was explained, however, that fraud was not likely to take place since even though someone’s name may be in the Final Voters’ List (FVL) there were numerous checks and balances in the system to prevent voter fraud.
The PNC however, was still concerned because it was aware of its own methods in elections prior to 1992. As such it successfully sustained the pressure for fresh house-to-house registration.
The second concern was that having large numbers of non-resident voters on the FVL distorts the actual voter turnout. Since the turnout of electors during elections is found by dividing the total number of persons who voted by the total number of electors on the FVL, if the latter is inflated with non-resident Guyanese, it would give a lower turnout than if only the resident number of voters were used as the divisor. In other words, the voter turnout would be higher.
With high migration rates however, it is now being once again discovered that many persons are legitimately on the voters’ list that those who are likely to vote. This complicates electoral projections because the universal set of electors is not a realistic indicator of those who have a chance of voting.
If for example there are 400,000 voters on the FVL and a political party is aiming for 10% of the total votes cast, the party may assume that if there is a 75% turn out, then a total of 300,000 persons will cast their votes. In reality however, the list may contain about 20% non-resident Guyanese who will not vote.
This means that the maximum number of persons who are in Guyana to vote will be 220,000 rather than the 300,000 that was originally assumed.
APNU’s best chance of winning an election is to hope that there is a high voter turnout within its constituencies and a low voter turnout by supporters of the opposition. Indeed, it knows that the PPPC has been having problems with voter turnout dating back to 2006.
In those elections which the PPP won a comprehensive majority, there were concerns on polling day that many of the supporters of the PPP on East Coast Demerara were not turning out to vote. By midday on Election Day, the PPP leadership was so concerned that its top leadership rushed up to parts of the East Coast urging their membership to go out and cast their votes.
Having an accurate assessment of the possible number of persons who will be available to vote is therefore critical to devising the right strategies to win a general election. One major hurdle that the opposition faces is that the breakdown of the census which was conducted has not been fully released. The opposition, for example, does not know the ethnic breakdown of the population or for that matter the demographic breakdown.
This data is necessary in order to determine whether there is padding of the voters’ list as well as to determine the right strategies to maximize voter turnout. The government holds the upper hand here because it may be in receipt of these numbers.
APNU, it is suspected, is not certain what the percentage of resident Guyanese on the list is. Of course it can conduct a scientific poll to arrive at an accurate estimate. The problem with this is however two fold.
It is always difficult to precisely calculate this. For one, there have been significant population shifts as a result of the housing drive.
Indeed, verification checks conducted by the PPP have found that many voters cannot be found at the addresses listed on the Preliminary List of Electors. Indeed since the gold rush tens of thousands of Guyanese are working in the interior.
A related problem is the factor of constant migration and the large numbers of persons who continue to go overseas. These considerations will induce measurement problems in any poll to estimate the actual resident voting population.
The second part of the problem in conducting such a poll is the lack of qualified pollsters and the high cost associated with such an exercise in a country such as Guyana where there are numerous small village and interior settlements.
APNU therefore may be keen to have a test run in the form of local government elections in order to assess the actual voting strength of the respective parties and the number of resident voters in the population. The local government polls can be used also to gauge how the population has responded to obstructionist policies pursued by the opposition in the National Assembly.
The need for this test run in the form of local government elections may explain the motives of APNU in issuing an ultimatum for local government elections. This, along with the fact that APNU may not yet be ready for general and regional elections may explain its demand that the President announces a date for local government elections.
Source - http://www.kaieteurnewsonline....pnu-wants-a-dry-run/
