Keep hope alive!

Chief posted:

Keep hope alive!

Hope is dead only to dunces. This fellow has such an uphill climb that it would be indeed amazing if he makes it. It is possible but the odds are 99 percent against him. I cannot see a path for him.

Chief posted:

Keep hope alive!

One of a few times we agree, let's hope Trump rescues America!

I have to add Utah's 6 Electoral College votes to Hillary - the Mormons have declared Trump personna non grata. I may have to add back Nevada's 6 votes too. That a 24 swing vote - +12 Hillary + (- 12 Trump).

Hillary 319 - Trump 219

ba$eman posted:

Chief posted:

Keep hope alive!

One of a few times we agree, let's hope Trump rescues America!

Amen!

Given Clinton's firewall dead-sure Electoral College votes of 226, as of today it looks like she will have the following in the bag:

• Florida          29
• Minnesota     10

226 + 39 = 265.

Note this is only dead-sure. She still has a few more battleground States to get the needed 5 Electoral College votes (including No. Carolina's 15, Colorado's 9, Arizona's 11, Wisconsin's 10, etc.)

Kari posted:

I have to add Utah's 6 Electoral College votes to Hillary - the Mormons have declared Trump personna non grata. I may have to add back Nevada's 6 votes too. That a 24 swing vote - +12 Hillary + (- 12 Trump).

Hillary 319 - Trump 219

Close to my prediction ...

Clinton == 318

Trump == 220

Once she get 271 I don't care how much.

In fact if she demolishes the GOP they are then driven into a place where they will have to be serious analysis about their situation.

The Dems get by because they enjoy outsized support from minorities. This isn't because minorities are ecstatic about them. Its because they correctly see the GOP as a party hijacked by Satan's Angels.

If the GOP does what it has said that it wanted to do after their 2008 loss, and that is moderate its views, snatch control from the right wing lunatics and be more embracing of non traditional supporters the Dems will have a tough go of it.

If Hillary wins with 280 it allows the Trump section to feel vindicated and the GOP will remain the party of Pallin, Bauchmann, the Breitbart fanatics and the KKK.  And with this it will die as it will continue to alienate the fastest growing parts of the electorate.

caribny posted:

Once she get 271 I don't care how much.

In fact if she demolishes the GOP they are then driven into a place where they will have to be serious analysis about their situation.

The Dems get by because they enjoy outsized support from minorities. This isn't because minorities are ecstatic about them. Its because they correctly see the GOP as a party hijacked by Satan's Angels.

If the GOP does what it has said that it wanted to do after their 2008 loss, and that is moderate its views, snatch control from the right wing lunatics and be more embracing of non traditional supporters the Dems will have a tough go of it.

If Hillary wins with 280 it allows the Trump section to feel vindicated and the GOP will remain the party of Pallin, Bauchmann, the Breitbart fanatics and the KKK.  And with this it will die as it will continue to alienate the fastest growing parts of the electorate.

The Dems get by because they enjoy outsized support from minorities.

I thought you described minorities as unenthusiastic, even lazy, to go vote for Hillary and that the Cuban Hispanics will vote 100% Republicans in Florida. I thought her mid-west white people problem is that urban female voters and white college-educated voters do not neutralize the white mostly-male, non-college-educated whites. Whah happ'n?

Kari posted:

caribny posted:

 

The Dems get by because they enjoy outsized support from minorities.

I thought you described minorities as unenthusiastic, even lazy, to go vote for Hillary and that the Cuban Hispanics will vote 100% Republicans in Florida. I thought her mid-west white people problem is that urban female voters and white college-educated voters do not neutralize the white mostly-male, non-college-educated whites. Whah happ'n?

Of the minorities who vote 80% will vote for Hillary including 95% of the blacks.

Do you know that Nixon in 1960 won 32% of the black vote. As recently as 2004 Bush won 44% of the Hispanic vote.  Asians used to be a GOP bloc and only switched as the GOP became a party of nativist bigots.

If a nicer more cuddly GOP emerges, and it will have to in the long run, sooner of Trump is truly "Trumped" on Tuesday now that the specter of the FBI no longer hangs over Hillary.

We might see this again. 43% of the votes that the Dems get is from minorities.  But imagine a more reasoned GOP. Think that it cannot get 32% of the black vote and 44% of the Latin vote and with that several swing states that the Dems need to win?

Most blacks listen to Michael Steele, if they hear him, and find him reasonable. Even Condi is not that bad, once you get over her role in the Middle East and she speaks on issues of opportunities for blacks.  Collin Powell is after all a GOP and left only because of the neocons and the right wing nuts.

So if the Democratic party plans its future based on guaranteed wins of 80% of the minority vote, without relying on fear, then their long term viability isn't assured.

Calling blacks at the last minute when their turnout begins to cause worry, with cries that the KKK will ride again if they don't show up (this should remind you of PPP tactics with grass roots Indians). 

Not sustainable if a GOP candidate is walking around Harlem as Jack Kemp used to do, speaking about issues of enhanced economic opportunity and expanded availability of school vouchers, which blacks overwhelmingly support.

Calling blacks at the last minute when their turnout begins to cause worry, with cries that the KKK will ride again if they don't show up (this should remind you of PPP tactics with grass roots Indians). 

Huge difference, The PPP tried spreading fear of the black man, in the US the blacks should be dam worried when the KKK came out in public,throwing their support behind a candidate. Unless of course the KKK is a new dance troupe.

cain posted:

Calling blacks at the last minute when their turnout begins to cause worry, with cries that the KKK will ride again if they don't show up (this should remind you of PPP tactics with grass roots Indians). 

 

Huge difference, The PPP tried spreading fear of the black man, in the US the blacks should be dam worried when the KKK came out in public,throwing their support behind a candidate. Unless of course the KKK is a new dance troupe.

What is the difference.  BOTH parties are playing on the racial insecurities of a group, taking their votes for granted, and ignoring them until they need their votes again.

Here is the difference. IF the GOP reforms and choses decent candidates who aggressive go to get the black vote, they can split the vote enough to reduce the probability of the Dems winning.

Based on the white vote only NY, New England, IL, MN, WI, and the West Coast will be won by the Dems. Given that the Latino vote is still small in the Midwest, except in IL, and outnumbered by the black vote in states like VA and NC I suggest that the Democrats owe black voters loads.

But no one can tell what they actually do, except lecture us that if we don't vote for them we get the KKK.

Why after 8 years of a black president does the Democratic party have to beg blacks to vote.  Obama screaming that he will be personally insulted if they don't vote. Yes this man who said that he doesn't have to deal with an urban agenda, even as be bent over backwards for (white) women, mounting an entire WH initiative for them.

THIS should be as much of a conversation for the Dems as indeed the GOP should have as they will most likely lose, because they selected a maniac.

The Dems will not be sustainable if their biggest support base becomes alienated as a generational shift occurs and a new one rises which isn't impressed by what LBJ did 50 years ago.