Note the following historical dynamics at play in reviewing the state of our Union.
- This decade has witnessed the effects of forces in the making for over three decades - (i) the aging population and thus an increase in entitlement spending; (ii) the loss of skilled and semi-skilled jobs due to more supply side laborers from a flattening global economy tied by technology; a financial market collapse in the making since Clinton signed the repeal of the Glass-Steigal Act in the mid-nineties; the military resources consumed since 9/11 especially on a wanton strategy of invading the wrong country and trying a nation-building approach costing over a trillion dollars.
- We've seen the political constituencies gerrymandered to create safe seats for lunatics and thus exacerbate the notion of divided government to the point where governance is paralyzed. Congress can strangle Washington and cause uncertainty in global markets and corporate America.
- The growth of the poor under Obama can be tackled but won't show results long after he's gone. Policies put in place that are not sexy to make the population retrained will show their good effects in the next presidency. It's the lag effect that explains why poverty that built up under Bush manifests its ugly side only under Obama.
- Financial markets and corporations and the wealthy have seen enormous gains while the rest has gotten nothing. Why? Well by Republicans stalling fiscal policies, the Federal Reserve stepped in with easy monetary policies. Only corporations and equity owners can benefit. o Wall St flourishes and Main street stagnates.
Consider these dynamics when listening to Obama Tuesday night.