A MAD world
Last month, Chinese station television announced the successful test of China's latest intercontinental missile, the Dongfeng 41. This latest series in the Dongfeng ("Eastern Wind") line has a maximum range of 14,000 kilometers, and is capable of carrying multiple warheads. [5] China's longstanding policy of strategically concealing and underreporting military capabilities implies that the published range specifications could be conservative estimates. Meanwhile, reports have surfaced of Chinese advances in deploying nuclear missile-equipped submarines.

This upgrading of China's strategic missile capabilities is a potentially stabilizing factor in Sino-American relations. The entirety of the continental US is now well within the reach of China's nuclear weaponry. Furthermore, the ability to deploy multiple warheads on a single missile effectively trumps any modern missile-defense system. China has achieved Mutually-Assured Destruction (MAD) status with the US in the event of a full-scale nuclear war. The stakes are much too high now for either power to seek military conflict.

Neither the US nor China could guarantee that a small clash in the Asia-Pacific would not escalate into a shooting war, which in turn could escalate into an extinction-level event for the human race. This dangerous dynamic is why the US "pivot" towards Asia, and Chinese fears of the aggressive capabilities of the conventional forces of the US military, are based on an extremely outdated worldview. The US military, for all its might, has been rendered useless by China's strategic nuclear arsenal. The American naval buildup off of China's shores amounts to little more than a "paper tiger".

What will take place is a much more subtle confrontation, with each country staking out areas of influence, primarily for economic resources. On this level, China has played a much smarter game than the US in the last decade. While Beijing has largely focused on economic ties with other nations, Washington has been busy establishing and maintaining costly military bases around the globe.

The return on investments for each strategy has been obvious. The US will receive very little strategic leverage against China by positioning conventional military forces in the region. The costly deployment of several hundred marines in Australia, for example, has virtually no effect on the security equation between two powers capable of completely destroying each other's major cities in a matter of a few hours.

The question naturally arises: why is the US intent on a costly strategic encirclement of China if conventional military forces must never be used? Part of the answer lies in an outdated worldview, but the larger motivating factor is domestic politics.

Much like that the Chinese position in the South China Sea is largely constrained by China's domestic politics, the US leadership is similarly compelled to take a hard line against Beijing. Neither of the two major American political parties can afford to look weak in front of China. America's economic woes, and China's rapid economic rise, make China an easy scapegoat for America's ongoing unemployment crisis, and the largely self-wrought global decline of American influence.

Simply put, the American political class is afraid. After dominating the globe for over 60 years, America is likely to get replaced as the world's pre-eminent superpower within two or three decades. The Middle Kingdom already challenges US economic supremacy throughout the world. Even the lynchpins of the US "pivot" towards Asia - Japan, India, South Korea, Indonesia, and Australia - do far more trade with China than they do with the United States.

Although the Sino-American rivalry will remain a serious matter, the areas of contention will be confined to economic, political, and cultural realms. The military stakes are simply too high. Martial posturing on both sides is meant primarily for domestic consumption.

There are hopeful signs for the development of a friendly rivalry. Firstly, with the exception of the Korean War (1950-1953), there is no strong history of mutual political animosity between the two powers. Indeed, there is quite a long history of cooperation against external threats, such as the Empire of Japan and the Soviet Union. Secondly, the people on both sides are generally mutually amicable.

On the more concrete side, both China and the US need each other economically. China's economic miracle would sour overnight without access to American markets. For the foreseeable future, China will need to continue exporting consumer goods and importing crops such as wheat and soybeans. On the other hand, America will remain dependent on Chinese trade and loans to forestall an even deeper economic crisis.

Finally, and most importantly, both powers have achieved a rough nuclear balance. America may have many more nuclear warheads than China, but China's arsenal is more than sufficient to act as a credible deterrent. Military threats and posturing on both sides are produced primarily for domestic consumption. For the time being, there will remain stability in the Sino-American rivalry. Neither power can directly threaten the other through coercive military or economic means.

Washington's pivot towards Asia is an overly militarized, regionalized effort at containing China. It is doomed to failure because China's growing influence is not confined to the Asia-Pacific, but rather spans the entire globe. Furthermore, the existence of advanced nuclear weaponry means that the Sino-American struggle for dominance will likely remain confined to the economic, cultural, and political realms. If Washington wants to compete in the 21st century, the American leadership must take off its outdated military blinders. America's pivot towards Asia serves little purpose besides angering an increasingly powerful China and uniting China's people against a perceived outside threat.

Secretary Clinton's less-than-friendly reception in Beijing serves a notice to the United States. An amicable rivalry is possible only when both powers fear and respect each other. No longer will China listen to American denunciations regarding China's foreign or domestic policies without responding in kind. China now has the economic clout and long-range military capabilities to interact with the United States on a fully equal basis.