Skip to main content

FM
Former Member

 

April 30, 2014 1:01 am

China poised to pass US as world’s leading economic power this year

[UNVERIFIED CONTENT] East Nanjing road, main shopping and touristic street in the centre of Shanghai, with many neon lights and crowded with people, at night. Shanghai, China

Central Shanghai: China is likely to be the world's richest country by next year

The US is on the brink of losing its status as the world’s largest economy, and is likely to slip behind China this year, sooner than widely anticipated, according to the world’s leading statistical agencies.

The US has been the global leader since overtaking the UK in 1872. Most economists previously thought China would pull ahead in 2019.


 
 

More

ON THIS STORY

The figures, compiled by the International Comparison Program hosted by the World Bank, are the most authoritative estimates of what money can buy in different countries and are used by most public and private sector organisations, such as the International Monetary Fund. This is the first time they have been updated since 2005.

After extensive research on the prices of goods and services, the ICP concluded that money goes further in poorer countries than it previously thought, prompting it to increase the relative size of emerging market economies.

The estimates of the real cost of living, known as purchasing power parity or PPPs, are recognised as the best way to compare the size of economies rather than using volatile exchange rates, which rarely reflect the true cost of goods and services: on this measure the IMF put US GDP in 2012 at $16.2tn, and China’s at $8.2tn.

In 2005, the ICP thought China’s economy was less than half the size of the US, accounting for only 43 per cent of America’s total. Because of the new methodology – and the fact that China’s economy has grown much more quickly – the research placed China’s GDP at 87 per cent of the US in 2011.

For 2011, the report says: “The US remained the world’s largest economy, but it was closely followed by China when measured using PPPs”.

Financial crisis in China has become inevitable. If it happens soon, its effects can be contained. But, if policy makers use further doses of stimulus to postpone the day of reckoning, a severe collapse will become unavoidable within a few years.

The country is in the middle of by far the largest monetary expansion in history. On one widely used measure, M2, its money supply has tripled in the past six years, an expansion four times as large as that of the US over the same period.

Continue reading

With the IMF expecting China’s economy to have grown 24 per cent between 2011 and 2014 while the US is expected to expand only 7.6 per cent, China is likely to overtake the US this year.

The figures revolutionise the picture of the world’s economic landscape, boosting the importance of large middle-income countries. India becomes the third-largest economy having previously been in tenth place. The size of its economy almost doubled from 19 per cent of the US in 2005 to 37 per cent in 2011.

Russia, Brazil, Indonesia and Mexico make the top 12 in the global table. In contrast, high costs and lower growth push the UK and Japan further behind the US than in the 2005 tables while Germany improved its relative position a little and Italy remained the same.

The findings will intensify arguments about control over global international organisations such as the World Bank and IMF, which are increasingly out of line with the balance of global economic power.

When looking at the actual consumption per head, the report found the new methodology as well as faster growth in poor countries have “greatly reduced” the gap between rich and poor, “suggesting that the world has become more equal”.

The world’s rich countries still account for 50 per cent of global GDP while containing only 17 per cent of the world’s population.

Having compared the actual cost of living in different countries, the report also found that the four most expensive countries to live in are Switzerland, Norway, Bermuda and Australia, with the cheapest being Egypt, Pakistan, Myanmar and Ethiopia. 

Replies sorted oldest to newest

U.S. Economy Starts Year With a Whimper

GDP Growth Stalls as Frigid Weather, Weak Exports Curtail Activity

  • by ERIC MORATH and BEN LEUBSDORF 
Updated April 30, 2014 7:22 p.m. ET
 

The U.S. economy slowed in the first quarter to one of the weakest paces of the five-year recovery as the frigid winter appeared to curtail business investment, and health care played a role as well. WSJ's Kathleen Madigan explains on MoneyBeat. Photo: Getty

U.S. growth nearly stalled in the first three months of the year, fresh evidence that the economic expansion that began almost five years ago remains the weakest in modern history.

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.1% in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. It marked the second-worst quarterly performance since the recession ended in mid-2009.

The weak GDP reading came as Federal Reserve officials voted to continue withdrawing their support for the economy based on the expectation—shared by many private economists—that growth would rebound, as it already started doing as the weather improved. "Economic activity has picked up recently, after having slowed sharply during the winter in part because of adverse weather conditions," the central bank said in its policy statement Wednesday.

Harsh weather likely slowed first-quarter business investment and discretionary consumer spending. It could have even blocked exports—which notched their sharpest decline since the recovery began—from reaching ports.

 

Pent-up demand caused by a winter lull could lead to a stronger gains this spring and summer, and reassure the Fed that the economy can return to the stronger growth trajectory established in the second half of last year, when it expanded at a 3.4% pace.

Against the optimistic backdrop, U.S. stocks climbed. The Dow Jones industrials added 45.47 points, or 0.3%, to close at a record 16580.84.

Still, the first-quarter reading fell far below even the lackluster average annual gain of near 2% since the recession ended. While some easing was broadly expected, the severity of the first-quarter slowdown surprised many economists, who forecast a growth at a 1.1% rate in a Wall Street Journal survey.

The latest GDP figures "can't possibly be reflective of the state of the economy," said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics LLC. Recent data on employment and business-equipment spending indicate the economy is growing at faster pace, he said.

Forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers projects the economy will grow at a 3.5% rate in the second quarter and expects growth in that vicinity for the rest of the year.

The cold winter chilled sales for Positec Tool Corp., a Charlotte, N.C.-based maker of garden equipment and power tools that retail under the Rockwell and Worx brand names.

Positec's sales were on "a really good glide path" before hitting turbulence over the winter months, said Chief Executive Tom Duncan. Gardening equipment sales in particular were down "in the low double-digit negatives," he said. Still, he's optimistic the company will "get back on a pretty steady growth curve" this spring.

The primary driver of the latest weaker-than-expected growth figure: Exports fell at the fastest rate since the recession ended, declining at a 7.6% pace in the first quarter. The performance partly reflects shaky economies in Europe and Asia generating poor demand, rather than underlying weakness in the U.S.

Cleveland-based Lincoln Electric Holdings Inc., LECO +2.60% which makes welding machines, saw its sales fall 5% in the first quarter, in large part due to weaker demand from China, Russia and the Middle East. "The most notable volume weakness was in our North American equipment business and primarily in exports, which we attribute to lower international industrial demand," Chief Executive Chris Mapes told analysts last week.

 

Cold weather also could have played a role in tumbling exports, said Jason Thomas, director of research at the Carlyle Group. Reports from the private-equity firm's 200 portfolio companies indicate about half that drop in exports could be attributed to shipments failing to reach U.S. ports due to weather delays, boosting the prospects for a spring pickup.

"We had the best backdrop for growth entering a year since 2007," Mr. Thomas said. "I think it's likely that we'll still get the growth rate we expected."

Wednesday's report showed the pace of consumer spending on goods rose at a mere 0.4% during the quarter. That was the smallest gain since 2011, a sign of fewer discretionary purchases.

But households spent more on services, including energy to heat homes and health care, causing total consumer spending to rise at a 3.0% pace, only slightly below the fourth quarter's 3.3% rate.

If not for the increased spending on health care and utilities, the economy would have contracted in the first quarter. Medical spending rose at a time when millions of Americans were enrolling in insurance plans created under the new health-care law.

A woman prepares to pay for her order at a Chick-fil-A restaurant in Bowling Green, Ky. Bloomberg

Residential fixed investment—spending on home building and improvements—declined at a 5.7% rate in first quarter. Cold weather likely halted some building. But other factors, including mortgage rates that are a percentage point higher than a year earlier, could be dissuading families from moving.

Business spending on equipment fell at a 5.5% pace in the first three months of the year. That was the largest decline since 2009. The slowdown in investment coincided with weaker hiring during the quarter.

Bob Zakreski, owner of Minooka Pastry Shop in Scranton, Pa., said sales for high-end items such as wedding cakes continue to decline years after the recession ended. Until he's more confident about the economy, he's putting off a purchase of a $30,000 industrial dishwasher. "We're patching up the one that we have and will try to keep it running as long as we can," Mr. Zakreski said.

While Fed policy makers weren't fazed by the latest growth figures, they remain concerned about weak inflation.

 

Polya Lesova takes a look at the markets, including three stocks to watch today. Photo: Getty.

A separate Labor Department report Wednesday showed the employment-cost index, a broad measure of pay and benefits, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% from January through March. That was slower than the 0.5% gain in the fourth quarter of 2013.

The slight increase reflects weak inflationary pressures across the economy. Small compensation gains can allow businesses to more easily forgo price increases, but they also can stifle consumer demand.

At the same time, persistently low inflation—remaining well below the central bank's 2% annual target—could complicate the Fed's decisions about how to wind down its bond-buying program this year and when to raise benchmark interest rates.

For now, the Fed maintained its previous path of reducing bond purchases to $45 billion a month, while reaffirming that it expects to keep short-term interest rates near zero "for a considerable time."

Write to Ben Leubsdorf at ben.leubsdorf@wsj.com and Eric Morath ateric.morath@wsj.com

FM

This PPP measure of China's economy is meaningless in a global context. All it does is measure the relative purchasing power of consumers, businesses and the govt WITHIN China.

 

The USA has the largest economy and that is likely to change in the very near future.  Further China is highly dependent on this economy, given its exports to the USA and its high participation in US assets.

FM

I don't think that this Lucas fellah understands the concept of PPP (Purchasing Power Parity).

 

I have one question - for measurement comparison, is the same consumer good, for instance a Shanghai Theater Play the same value as that of a Broadway Play?

 

Lucas fellah, the US is a $17 trillion economy and China is a $3 trillion economy using Gross Domestic Product. Using Gross National Income where you include net income from foreign investments then the US is even larger than China.

 

As CaribJ says that Chinese PPP measure is meaningless in international terms.

Kari
Originally Posted by Kari:

I don't think that this Lucas fellah understands the concept of PPP (Purchasing Power Parity).

 

I have one question - for measurement comparison, is the same consumer good, for instance a Shanghai Theater Play the same value as that of a Broadway Play?

 

Lucas fellah, the US is a $17 trillion economy and China is a $3 trillion economy using Gross Domestic Product. Using Gross National Income where you include net income from foreign investments then the US is even larger than China.

 

As CaribJ says that Chinese PPP measure is meaningless in international terms.

This is a situation that can change overnight at anytime...the Nominal GPD is calculated using the US dollar as money conversion reference...but when currencies collapse they do it in a matter of hours. It this happened to the US dollar then you would no longer be using it as reference because it would be a worthless piece of paper cheaper than the toilet paper. Then you would have to use another currency as reference to calculate GDPs and then would show a totally different map of the world.

 

The fact that the US debt is larger than their GDP makes me thing that the collapse of the US could happen in the blink of an eye.

 

At this moment is not economics what keeps the dollar from bursting ..it is the military might of the US which is used  to force countries to price goods and oil in US dollars.

 

Those countries who in the past have dropped the US currency for their international trade have been destroyed by the US military. Those who threaten to do it are facing economic sanctions, which is nothing else than punishing the country and those companies that trade with it.

 

Many experts have already said this...the USA debt finances the US military, the US military enforces the use of the dollar as international trade currency. This is the vicious circle that maintains the US. America has become like those guys in the hospital who are kept alive with a respirator because their lungs are disconnected from the brain.

 

 

FM

That's why is so important for the US to project an image of invincibility. Any one who exposes the paper lion (Britain) and the wingless eagle ( US) will face all the demonizing power of their media. But reality is catching up with them. The lion will be hit and embarrassed for ever and the eagle will not be able to fly again.

FM

Add Reply

×
×
×
×
×
Link copied to your clipboard.
×
×