Will Guyana Become Another Chinese Satellite?

Oil discoveries off the coast of Guyana are on course to produce about 1 million barrels per day of oil for 30 years. If oil fetches just $50 per barrel, this equates to nearly $500 billion. Guyana’s share of this will be approximately $300 billion; the other $200 billion will go to the Exxon-controlled consortium. The amounts are conservative estimates: New oil discoveries keep coming. Exxon and its partners, Hess and Nexen (the latter owned by the Chinese), landed a very sweet deal.

Is China’s Belt and Road Initiative Strategic Genius, Arrogant Overreach or Something Else?

READ MORE

Guyanese outrage about how its government granted such a stupendously generous package is vocal and growing. The reason is no more than incompetence and sharp Exxon negotiators. But Guyana’s share is still gigantic and could transform the country.

Guyana’s future is most likely either along the Equatorial Guinea path — where a small elite takes all the oil money and the majority remain in poverty — or the Norwegian model. Under the latter, the oil money is invested wisely so that all citizens become wealthy. The majority of Guyanese simply do not understand the consequences of the wall of money about to hit the country — nor does the government, whose development program is muddled, myopic and concerned only with short-term projects.

No leader has outlined a vision to guide this remarkable country out of poverty to a golden future. The government has not even produced a practical national development plan, only a list of well-meaning short-term objectives. Apart from President David Granger, who is a humble and honest ascetic, the rest of his government is hopelessly out of its depth. Granger is about to face a decisive election which, despite a potentially rosy future, he will likely lose to the notoriously corrupt opposition party. As a result, the Equatorial Guinea model is the likely outcome, with a few Guyanese becoming immensely wealthy, and the majority seeing little change.

A variety of carpet baggers and more or less (usually less) respectable merchants have turned up from Nigeria and other parts of West Africa exploit the opportunity. But above all, the Chinese have arrived in force, and dealing with a self-selected elite is just their style. They have a huge embassy to cultivate the locals, and spy out deals and projects to build. Already Chinese contractors have refurbished the main airport. The Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has visited to sign up Guyana to the Belt and Road Initiative, and there are many mega projects in his sights.

These include the first paved road from Boa Vista in the north east of Brazil to the Guyanese coast, a new deep-water port and industrial zone powered by gas piped from off shore. Guyana needs a new capital on higher ground. Georgetown, right on the coast, is about a meter below sea level, and at high tide the sea pours over the inadequate sea wall. The city is one big storm away from disaster, and rising sea levels will anyway inundate the city in a few years.

What’s more, 90% of the country’s population lives on a coastal strip nearly all of which is below sea level at high tide. The Chinese are ready and willing to relocate the capital and rebuild the coastal defenses. They are eager to provide the finance, secured against future oil revenue and to lock in Guyana for the long term. They will of course import tens of thousands of Chinese laborers to do the work. As usual in such situations, they will never leave.

Guyana’s former colonial master, Great Britain, has a tiny embassy, and no senior UK ministers have visited in decades. The US is slightly more alert, though its embassy is full of Drug Enforcement Administration agents and is more interested in the war on drugs and the conflict with Venezuela. The US is going to miss out on the development bonanza and lose Guyana to the Chinese, and Western business doesn’t want to invest in a country plagued by government ineptitude, petty corruption and almost total lack of local capacity.

Apart from Exxon and Hess, who sit safely off shore and ship their oil to foreign markets, Western businesses seem set to sit this opportunity out. The Chinese are taking a longer, multi-generational view. They will invest in this lucrative market, settle their nationals, rebuild the infrastructure — and Guyana will become another Chinese satellite.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.

Is this the article Base 

Guyana Matters to China, So It Should Matter to the US

During President David Granger’s salute to the People Republic of China’s (PRC) seventieth anniversary, the Guyanese leader labeled Beijing as a “reliable partner.” Indeed, the small Caribbean state and the Asian giant have a long history since bilateral relations were established in June 1972, a history that is centered on Beijing’s interest in Guyana’s natural resources and geographic location.

The attention of the international media will (temporarily) focus on Guyana as President Granger has finally announced general elections for March 2, 2020, following domestic and international pressure after he lost a no-confidence vote in 2018. The upcoming elections, Beijing-Georgetown relations, and Venezuela’s own claims to Guyanese territory should make Guyana a bigger priority for Washington.

Beijing-Georgetown Ties

The best way to understand Sino-Guyanese relations is to focus on Chinese investment and commercial presence in the country. During his September 2019 remarks, President Granger listed some infrastructural projects that have Chinese involvement, such as the “Arthur Chung Conference Centre; the upgrading of the Cheddi Jagan International Airport; the construction of a four-lane highway on the East Coast of Demerara, and the Sheriff Street-Mandela Avenue Road Enhancement Project.”

Moreover, there are defense relations between the two governments, as, according to President Granger, Beijing has awarded “scholarships to eleven Guyana Defence Force officers to pursue advanced studies in China mainly in scientific, technological and engineering fields.” Beijing has also donated non-lethal military equipment to the country: according to Guyana’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in early April the Caribbean nation received 31 pieces of equipment, namely patrol boats, bulldozers, one excavator, water tankers, fuel tankers, tipper trucks, off-road ambulances, and several other vehicles.

The proverbial cherry on the cake was Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi’s visit to Guyana in September 2018. Anecdotally, President Granger declared that Guyana is “ready to work with China to turn bilateral consensus into actions by taking the opportunity of jointly building the Belt and Road to push forward their relations.” This is an important declaration to keep in mind as China expands its Belt and Road Initiative around the world.

Washington is Present, but not Enough

While China has cemented its presence throughout Guyana, US involvement is much more limited. The main way Washington is present in the country is defense initiatives. For example, as part of the New Horizons humanitarian initiative, earlier this year US military personnel constructed community centers and a woman’s shelter, and also conducted medical and veterinary events in several cities, like Port Mourant, New Amsterdam, and Georgetown.

Meanwhile, USAID carries out projects like providing HIV prevention services, supporting Guyana’s private sector, and also promoting “investments in non-traditional exports within four sectors: wood products, aquaculture, agribusiness, and ecotourism.”

Alas, while these initiatives are valuable, they are not as visually imposing as infrastructure projects that China is carrying out, like the Arthur Chung Conference Centre.

Moreover, Washington-Georgetown relations are undergoing a problematic period as President Granger, elected in 2015, lost a no-confidence vote in December 2018. On September 25, 2019, after several judicial decisions and much debate, the head of state announced that elections will finally be held on March 2, 2020.

The delay of the elections prompted negative reactions from the international community, including the US, toward Granger. For example, a September 19 joint statement by diplomatic representatives from the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union explained that they “deeply regret that, by surpassing September 18, the Government is currently in breach of the Constitution following its failure to adhere to the decisions of the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) on 18 June and its subsequent orders.” The joint statement added the current political climate “also hinders our ability to support Guyana’s development needs,” while Beijing maintained its relations with the Granger administration as usual.

Final Thoughts

The Cooperative Republic of Guyana is not a priority for Washington, given its various other global priorities, including other countries and topics of interest throughout the Western Hemisphere. Nevertheless, this country is important, as it borders Venezuela—where the de facto Nicolas Maduro government reiterated on October 3 its claim to an area known as Guayana Esequiba, which is under Guyanese control—and it has important natural resources (particularly gold and oil). Moreover, the Chinese government is heavily interested in Guyana.

During an early October speech at the Defense Writers Group in Washington, Admiral Craig Faller, commander of US Southern Command, explained how “dozens of Chinese infrastructure projects in South America are contributing to instability” and that “China is working on 56 port deals in the region.” Guyana is one of those nations where China has managed to achieve a significant amount of presence and influence, an accomplishment reached via flashy (though also valuable) infrastructure projects and other deals.

In other words, Beijing maintains a flexible strategy as it looks to gain and secure new international partners and backers, while the US has demanded accountability and democracy from the Granger administration. Leading with a moral compass is ideal and desirable in global geopolitics, but sometimes that alienates some potential partners.

Ok you mellowed a little ,so thread stays.

Where do you come up with the idea Chinese backing the Coalition ,i haven't  gotten any hint about such.

The Coalition will listen to US ,have you noticed the tone down from the US recently.

There was an article in a think tank newspaper ,i got in a tweet ,couldn't download they need subscription.

Trinidad has oil and the country is still like shit.  What makes you think that Guyana will be any different when they will only get 5% of the oil revenue?

Ramakant-P posted:

Trinidad has oil and the country is still like shit.  What makes you think that

Guyana will be any different when they will only get 5% of the oil revenue?

Rama ,it's more than that.

It should have been more than what they negotiated for.

If it's more than what they negotiated for, then why negotiate? Just shake hands on a deal and call a spade  something else other than a spade.

Django is going to delete this thread.

Didn't the Chinese give a shitload of cheap vehicles to the Granger Govt for the GPF and others? I seem to remember commenting on this and was p'eed off they were accepted. The chinese bribed their way in and its only a matter of time before they own Guyana, if not already. Both PPP and APNU gave away Guyana. Those guys are like roaches/bedbugs/fleas, once you harbor em and do nothing to get rid of them they multiply.

The Chinese has the money and they are giving away a few to gain a lot. That's business!

Covid could trigger war with China.  Chinese adventurism getting more in-your-face.  Now they aggressively sponsoring coups in countries on America's doorstep.

I see conflict on the horizon!

@Former Member, I did not get it from an article, I got it from someone connected in Guyana.

Chinese will eat up all them stray dawgs in Guyana

No more Alligators left in Guyana, guess who eat them up?

Ace posted:

No more Alligators left in Guyana, guess who eat them up?

Leh me guess, leh me guess, ammmm, Irfan?

cain posted:

Ace posted:

No more Alligators left in Guyana, guess who eat them up?

Leh me guess, leh me guess, ammmm, Irfan?

Nah! Jranjer(as per Prashad)

Hey hey hey...Basie yuh put yuh haan pon something bai. Dem bais seh dat yuh need de support of wan farin powah foh do what PNC and five coolie do...rig de eleckshun. Hey hey hey. Yea dem bais flirtin wid China foh true. China want de aile reserve. Dat is why Labba tell dem sk*&^ts 2 years now doan always attack exxon. Doan invent propaganda pon Exxon. Yea Granger and he ole army bais dem get out play wid Exxon but doan attack Exxon unreasonable. Ayoo na go like de alternative. Hey hey hey...

The Chinese now banned their people from eating those bugs and animals which they suspected in causing the influx of the Virus.