Do not let our guard down.

I do not believe this poll.

There are a lot of angry white men out there.

Polls are indications at specific points in time.

The only valid poll is the actual results of an election.

Demerara_Guy posted:

Polls are indications at specific points in time.

The only valid poll is the actual results of an election.

Vishnu Bisram poll was saying that your PPP will win and they got a solid cut ass 

Just messing with you DG. I respect AND AGRRE   WITH you in your support for Ms. Clinton.

Everyone has shortcomings but one needs to review the overall and predominant activities and results.

In the given situation, indeed there are indications that Hillary Clinton will secure the votes to win the elections in November 2016.   

As a note, regardless of our differing views on various issues, we should be civil/friendly to each other.

The primaries were exciting to watch.  These recently held conventions were boring to watch, especially the Republican one. I think the American people are somewhat confused as to who they should vote for. Trump is a superb business leader but lacks some of the savvy that you would expect from a Republican presidential nominee.  The criticism  against him is heating up and the press is not kind to him at all.  He will have to fight hard. 

Chief posted:

Do not let our guard down.

I do not believe this poll.

There are a lot of angry white men out there.

Here is my concern.  Much of Hillary's support isn't because people think highly of her.  Its that the GOP in general, and Trump in particular, is so bad.

There is a real risk of complacency of folks start believing all this claims that victory is assured.

Election results depend on who votes.  Trump has some very motivated supporters, whereas the Dems are easily persuaded not to vote if they don't feel threatened by the prospect of an electoral loss, or don't feel inspired by their candidate.

The results will show a 5% swing vote deciding the election as is the case usually.  Those who vote GOP will hold their noses and vote Trump, fooling themselves that Hillary is this left wing crook, so worse.

The Dems need to ensure that this 5% actually show up. After all the folks in the UK were similarly sure that Brexit would lose, and we all know what ended up happening. Folks in London, as well as young people didn't vote. Older angry white working class people did. 

Let this be a lesson to all who think that there is a Hillary victory assured.  What might motivate some Trump support isn't Trump but the prospect of a very liberal Supreme Court, if Hillary wins.

CARIBNY is right. American Presidential election spreads are mostly in the 5% range. Hillary has to be wary of that.

Kari posted:

CARIBNY is right. American Presidential election spreads are mostly in the 5% range. Hillary has to be wary of that.

The presidential spread is always the middle 10%. To get them out needs campaign machinery and the ability to know them and initiate direct contact. This kind of micro targeting is the hallmark to victory. Hillary has that in place. Trump has failed to put one in place.

Stormborn posted:

Kari posted:

CARIBNY is right. American Presidential election spreads are mostly in the 5% range. Hillary has to be wary of that.

The presidential spread is always the middle 10%. To get them out needs campaign machinery and the ability to know them and initiate direct contact. This kind of micro targeting is the hallmark to victory. Hillary has that in place. Trump has failed to put one in place.

 

As of now we don't know how responsive people will be to Hillary's get out to vote targeting.  What I do know is that when a group thinks that victory is inevitable complacency sets in and they are less likely to vote.

Brexit should be a lesson to us. Those who supported Remain were so convinced that it was in the bag that complacency set in.  The turn out among older, and poorer whites was higher than it was among those living in London and among younger voters.

caribny posted:

Stormborn posted:

Kari posted:

CARIBNY is right. American Presidential election spreads are mostly in the 5% range. Hillary has to be wary of that.

The presidential spread is always the middle 10%. To get them out needs campaign machinery and the ability to know them and initiate direct contact. This kind of micro targeting is the hallmark to victory. Hillary has that in place. Trump has failed to put one in place.

 

As of now we don't know how responsive people will be to Hillary's get out to vote targeting.  What I do know is that when a group thinks that victory is inevitable complacency sets in and they are less likely to vote.

Brexit should be a lesson to us. Those who supported Remain were so convinced that it was in the bag that complacency set in.  The turn out among older, and poorer whites was higher than it was among those living in London and among younger voters.

I do not think anyone is complacent. This election is too important. It is the reason republicans still cling to the hope Trump can acquire some sense and act sensible. Four seats on the supreme court is at stake among other very important aspects of the society we take for granted.

Hillary guh appoint Obama to the supreme court. That is why he is batting for her even though he hates her guts.

The Perils of Writing Off Mr. Trump

N Y Times Editorial - July 05, 2016

Donald Trump seemed to do everything wrong this week. But what if, to his supporters, he’s done everything right?

Adding to an already impressive list of blunders and outrages, Mr. Trump doubled down on his insults of the Muslim parents of a fallen American serviceman; refused to endorse the re-election bid of Paul Ryan, the highest-ranking elected official in his party; and booted a crying baby out of a rally in Virginia.

What one dismayed Republican described as a “new level of panic” set in among leading members of his party and even his own campaign. Reince Priebus, the Republican National Committee chairman, was said to be privately furious with Mr. Trump, though publicly he reserved his anger for Republicans like Richard Hanna, a New York congressman who rose up to say that he would vote for Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile, behind the scenes, some Republicans began fashioning plans in case Mr. Trump quit the race, on his own or under duress.

Democrats, looking at a new nine-point poll lead for Mrs. Clinton, began wondering whether winning might be easier than they thought. David Axelrod, who ran President Obama’s campaign, joked that Hillary Clinton should take the summer to tour the national parks and let Mr. Trump destroy himself. Mr. Trump’s meltdown, said Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, is “a more permanent turning point.”

Any celebration by Mr. Trump’s opponents seems more than a bit premature. He is unlikely to go anywhere soon. Because what, really, has he suffered, besides a drop in the polls that might prove fleeting? In the month just ended, he very nearly matched the money raised by Hillary Clinton’s big-donor juggernaut, most of it in small contributions. His rallies drew thousands. This week a CNN reporter interviewed people at one Trump rally about Mr. Trump’s attacks on Khizr and Ghazala Khan, the parents of a soldier who was killed in Iraq. The vast majority of Mr. Trump’s fans were not only untroubled, but were willing to stand in line for hours to hear him say the same things all over again.

The idea that Mr. Trump will quit if his all-important poll numbers fall far enough seems like wishful thinking. A look at his business record suggests that as long as the money keeps coming in, Mr. Trump will fight, and if he loses, he’ll litigate. He is already talking about a rigged system, cherry-picking voter registration laws that don’t favor him as proof.

It is also highly unlikely that there will ever emerge a “better” Mr. Trump. We are far more likely to witness an even worse one. His support isn’t contingent on exhibiting “presidential” behavior, or shifting his energies to lofty discussions of public policy. In fact, it is contingent on the opposite. Lacking workable ideas or intellectual ballast, Mr. Trump’s candidacy thrives on his refusal to be “politically correct,” a term he deploys to give license to declarations that should be called bigotry, or cruelty, or verbal battery. That behavior is what many of his supporters most admire. He is speaking to people who disbelieve conventional politicians, who detest a Washington they think has betrayed them. He promises nothing of substance to ease their pain, but he gives voice to their rage.

So where does this leave Mrs. Clinton? It does not give her the luxury of sitting back and hoping Mr. Trump will implode, but it does present opportunities — to lure wavering Republicans and independents, not merely by stoking outrage at his statements, but by addressing in policy terms the economic anxiety and fear that underlie Mr. Trump’s appeal, as well as lingering distrust of her. Instead, she played into that distrust this week by repeatedly asserting untruthful claims about her careless handling of government emails.

Mr. Trump’s bad week suggests he will not evolve into a politician whom anyone can count on or predict. This is Mrs. Clinton’s chance to present herself not just as a safe and conventional alternative, but as a morally serious leader determined to address the country’s real problems.

Stormborn posted:

 

I do not think anyone is complacent. .

Loads are complacent and even Bill and Obama have warned people that they have to vote if they don't want Trump to be president.

Reality is that Hillary isn't loved.  If the GOP fielded a moderate candidate she would certainly lose.

Right now this isn't Hillary beating Trump.  Its Trump beating himself up as it is increasingly clear that massaging his HUUUUGE ego means more to him than winning the election.

Bibi Haniffa posted:

Hillary guh appoint Obama to the supreme court. That is why he is batting for her even though he hates her guts.

Obama wants a chance to get rich.  He has already told them that I am sure.  Its books, speaking, consulting,  adjunct professorships, and a movie, which is in his future. Being on the SM will prevent this.

Its Loretta Lynch who will want that, and will want to keep her job so as to allow some time for the fiasco meeting with Bill to pass.

Kari posted:

The Perils of Writing Off Mr. Trump

N Y Times Editorial - July 05, 2016

 

So where does this leave Mrs. Clinton? It does not give her the luxury of sitting back and hoping Mr. Trump will implode, but it does present opportunities — to lure wavering Republicans and independents, not merely by stoking outrage at his statements, but by addressing in policy terms the economic anxiety and fear that underlie Mr. Trump’s appeal, as well as lingering distrust of her. Instead, she played into that distrust this week by repeatedly asserting untruthful claims about her careless handling of government emails.

Mr. Trump’s bad week suggests he will not evolve into a politician whom anyone can count on or predict. This is Mrs. Clinton’s chance to present herself not just as a safe and conventional alternative, but as a morally serious leader determined to address the country’s real problems.

The only people who I interact with who are Trump supporters are the brown bai KKK here on GNI.  I wonder if they would be so vocal in a bar in RH.  I wonder if I met baseman face to face and confronted him on his views, in front of many, whether he would really be so lacking in shame that he would admit to this.

I say this to say that we may be shocked about the closet Trump supporters in our midst.

This is to say that we live in bubbles.  We tend to underestimate the opposition because we don't meet them.  We are isolated from the Demographic who will PUBLICLY admit that they will support Trump.

So let us not minimize the fact that there are tens of millions of people who Trump is channeling.  Despite his outrageous behavior Trump's polls suggest that he is still very much in the running, should some "October surprise" of a Clinton scandal involving the foundation emerges.

Dems tend to be analytical people who vote on issues.  The GOP are emotional people who vote based on their guts, and they are highly motivated.

Understand that many of those who are appalled at Trump probably have already left the GOP, or they live in blue states, even if still GOP.  What embarrasses some is that the fact that a large reservoir of bigotry remains in this country.

In addition don't under estimate those GOP who will look passed Trump, knowing that the Supreme Court is at stake.  GOP control over that brnch of gov't has been very useful to them, and ensuring that this remains the case is very important.

So while we enjoy the spectacle of Trump imploding note that many don't care about this, or even applaud this behavior.

Stormborn posted:

I do not think anyone is complacent. This election is too important. It is the reason republicans still cling to the hope Trump can acquire some sense and act sensible. Four seats on the supreme court is at stake among other very important aspects of the society we take for granted.

This election is quite serious and it is doubtful that the Democratic and Republican parties will be complacency.

From current information, the Democrats are well focused on the issues, while the Republicans are swirling in different directions.

Demerara_Guy posted:

Stormborn posted:

I do not think anyone is complacent. This election is too important. It is the reason republicans still cling to the hope Trump can acquire some sense and act sensible. Four seats on the supreme court is at stake among other very important aspects of the society we take for granted.

This election is quite serious and it is doubtful that the Democratic and Republican parties will be complacency.

From current information, the Democrats are well focused on the issues, while the Republicans are swirling in different directions.

Problem is that the DNC and the RNC don't cast votes.  Ordinary voters do.

So complacency is a real risk here.  Regardless as to what the DNC does.