Carib:

Thanks for highlighting this fact (captured in red from your statement above)

 Carib's point in RED

(BOTTOM line.  Moses LOST some of the support which he gained.  This being especially true in Region 6, where, despite a higher African/mixed turn out, the coalition LOST votes.  30% of Region 6 is African/mixed you ought to know. )

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Yes they lost some of the support in Region 6 but the critical fact remains, they held on to MOST.

If the AFC was not in the mix, they would have lost all of that support that identifies with the AFC.  The professional PPP polls were showing the PPP would have gotten about 170,000  votes, the AFC 70,000 and the APNU 162,000 in January 2015.

When Ramjattan made those harsh comments against the APNU in December 2014, the PPP was certain they could head back into the Office of the President and would have cooperated with the opposition as a minority Government.

They totally did not expect the Cummingsburg Accord.

Great politics by Nagamootoo.

History would reveal what happened when Ramjattan went to the USA for the funeral of one of their leader Mr. Sankar.

Divine Intervention - this coalition.

1.  In a straight PPP PNC contest about 60% of the AFC vote would have gone PNC.  That is those who voted for the AFC in 2006 and again in 2011.  The goal was to rid Guyana of the PPP.  Large numbers of AFC supporters switched to APNU in 2011 as they thought that they would be a stronger opposition party.

2.  The votes which Moses kept from 2011 were swamped by the 20% increase in votes which the PPP generated.

3.  If APNU supporters didn't do an excellent job of getting out the vote Moses would have come with too little and the PPP would have won its 54%.

This is not to say that the 8000 votes which Moses kept didn't count, plus the other votes which he probably got, when we exclude the higher African/ mixed totals.  But the reality is that the 24,000 additionak votes that the PNC won from its strongholds in G/twn, Linden and Bartica is what saved the day.  Moses didn't attract anything like 24k Indian votes from PPP strongholds.

And yes I can see all of this in the stats which you provide, apply census data to show the ethnic break down of each region, and then figure out that Moses didn't generate the winning margins.  High African turn out did.

What arrogance from CaribJ

This is a weak position.

In 2011, the AFC got some 20,000 votes from former PPP strong holds.

If there were anyplace these people were going is BACK to the PPP.

The majority of them stayed with the APNUAFC in 2015.

Feel free to delude yourself.  In 2011 Moses got around 11k votes from regions 5 and 6.  Moses lost at least 30% of those votes.

So where do you get the 20k votes.  The AFC did NOT gain more votes in any significant number in Regions 2 and 3.  It retained some of its 2006 support in urban areas like G/town, New Amsterdam and Linden.

I can always tell when I am arguing with an Indian.  They just don't seem to understand the complexities of ethnicity in Guyana, because they couldn't be bothered to learn about the African/mixed voting bloc.  So they make errors like attributing all of regions 2,3, 5 and 6 to Indians, when 30-40% of the population is African or mixed.  Not every AFC vote in Region 6 in 2011 was a Nagamootoo vote.

Here are the AFC numbers for 2011; explain your numbers from this:

Caribny what is wrong with the above?  AFC delivered 40,000 plus votes to the coalition in 2015?  What is wrong with this analysis?

Why are you separating AFC votes from Nagamootoo?  Is that the argument here?  That is a useless argument from both sides if that is what it is.

Baseman / Klansman,

I hold no brief for Caribny but what gives a congenital racist prick like you the right to chide anyone for racism, eh? Your anti black, anti amerindian  posts are scattered across this site, with such gross shit that KKK sites would be hard pressed to match. Just shut the f.ck up and crawl back into your hole klansman.

Easy.  The AFC got 28k votes in 2006.  They lost votes in region 4 and 10.  They gained votes in regions 5 and 6, about 11k in all.  This being attributable to Nagamootoo. 

Ramjattan got virtually no votes in PPP strongholds in 2006.  Trotman was reluctant to have him be the AFC presidential candidate in 2011, even though their previously agreed formula suggested that Ramjattan be that candidate.  Why?  Because almost all of the AFC votes in 2006 came out of PNC strongholds.

Was Trotman the Presidential candidate in 2006?  That's could be why region 10 vote for AFC in 2006. 

Given that the AFC wasn't on the ballot in 2015 where do you get the notion that they won 40k votes?  What also gives you the notion that every single AFC vote is attributable to Nagamootoo?

In 2006 it was accepted wisdom that the AFC votes came mainly from the PNC strongholds, due to the disappointment that many had with Corbin.  The middle class switching some of its vote to the AFC.  The grass roots by boycotting the election.

In 2011 the AFC gained 8000 votes.  This was due mainly to a 8,500 more votes in Region 6, and an additional 2,200 in Region 5.  The increased AFC vote in regions 2 and 3 was nominal, meaning that Nagamootoo didn't generate much there.  In 2011 the AFC focused mainly in regions 5 and 6, and this showed in where they gained votes.

This was offset by a decline of 3,200 votes in Region 4 and 1,800 in Region 10.

You know you really ought to stop listening to rhetoric and do your own analysis.  While the AFC did lose much of its urban middle class support to Granger in 2011, it didn't lose all of it.  In addition it would have retained some of its New Amsterdam vote, so not all of Region 6 consists of PPP Nagamootoo voters.

Now do you think that the Region 4 middle class vote would select the PPP ahead of the PNC if it becomes a straight PPP vs.  PNC race?  Hardly likely.  In fact many of them fled back in 2011.

And as we saw Moses lost many of his PPP Nagamootoo votes in 2015 when many saw it as a straight PPP vs. PNC race.

So where did you get the 40k AFC votes?  Assuming that the vote in 2015 had the same composition as it did in 2011, when we saw an additional 66k votes, is pure nonsense.  It definitely included more young voters, or others who had been turned off to the election process.  That core AFC voter who came out in 2006 tend to be very activist.

Aren't you a social scientist?  Can't you understand the chart?  I used AFC votes in 2011 and determined the percentage based on AFC and APNU combined votes in 2011 i.e % = [AFC/(AFC+APNU)].  This is the best empirical evidence available since the percentages did not change from 2011 to 2015.  All your arguments are not valid because you are assuming that all black would have voted for APNU in 2015.  Show me the math buddy.  Show me the equations you are dealing with.

The AFC campaigned almost exclusively in Regions 5 and 6 and Gerhard and I had arguments about it.  I warned him that the AFC risked losing their Region 10 base.  Eventually he admitted that the AFC lacked the resources to campaign nationwide, so decided to focus in Region 5 and 6, where Ramjattan was best known.  Luckily Nagamootoo came on board, and so brought in many votes.

The AFC all but abandoned Regions 4 and 10 until the last minute, and did very little in Regions 2 and 3.  They got helped out in Region 8 by Garrido-Lowe fleeing the UF, which openly cast its lot with the PPP.

BTW when the AFC evaluated the reason for its disappointing performance in 2011, when their polls had shown 30% support, Gerhard conceded that they made a mistake by ignoring Region 4 and 10, and so lost ground to Granger.  Granger was seen as more moderate than Corbin, brighter and possessing more character, so won back many urban middle class voters who had fled to Trotman in 2006.

The AFC is new so it was arrogant of them to assume that they had a base in Region 4 so solid that they could ignore it.  How can one claim that it had a solid base, when this was based on one election against Corbin, who was a highly flawed candidate.

My question was about 2006 not 2011.

Trotman was Presidential Candidate in 2006 African in region 10 voted for him.

Who was the presidential candidate in 2011 and Indian?  So the Indian voted for him and the Africans in region 10 went back to APNU.

Talk to you tomorrow.

I understand social science very well which is why I know that you can calculate velocity, but show a complete inability to analyze political data.

You see what you are doing is using the 2011 APNU AFC ratios and assuming that the same held in 2015.

The AFC voter (aside from those who Nagamootoo brought in) tend to be every educated activist intellectual types.   They will vote.  Even in 2006 when the drop off in the vote was very sharp, these folks went out to vote.

Now what happened in 2015.  A 66k increase in the voter turn out.  This because the very people who didn't vote in 2006 and 2011 voted.  These being the youth vote, and the alienated vote.  The voter who cast his support on ethnic fear, and not on the constitution, as the urban AFC voter will.

So your analysis is simplistic, and exactly what I expect from an engineer.  People aren't machines.  In order to analyze this data you just do deeper analysis and also have some background knowledge.  Clearly you don't have this. 

Instead you repeat rhetoric like Africans voted AFC in 2006 and Indians in 2011, and that the Indian population is very rural based, which means that you can attribute all voting behavior in these areas to the Indian vote.

Region 6 is 21% African and 8% mixed, and Region 5 is 32% African and 8% mixed.  These are large enough to suggest that it isn't only Indian voting that we need to factor in.

Yes the very simple and stupid analysis that I expected from you.  In fact I even referred to it in my response to you above.

Ramjattan is a hopeless campaigner.  Had Nagamootoo not joined the campaign in 2011 the AFC would have crashed and burned. 

Why do you think that the newcomer Nagamootoo, and not Ramjattan was selected as the lead AFC candidate when it was decided that splitting the PPP vote was a path to victory?

In 2011 they neglected Region 4 so lost 1/4 of their vote. But for Moses the AFC would have ended up with a 15-20% net loss of votes compared to 2006.

The same argument hold in Region 4 where Indians are about 40% of the population. There is a group in the PNC who wants to say they won the election by themselves...it seems like they are conditioning the mind...

You have no argument.

1.  You are assuming that the composition of the voters who showed up in 2011 is the same as who showed up this year.  We had 66k additional voters who didn't vote in either 2006 or 2011.  So why assume that their voting choices were the same.  These are the voters most likely to vote because of ethnic panic, therefore for the PPP or APNU.  AFC supporters vote based on disaffection with the two main parties.

2.  You are also engaging in  simplistic analysis which suggests that the people who supported the AFC in 2006 (mainly black and mixed) all left in 2011.  Well many of them did, as declining support in Regions 4,7 and 10 will indicate, but even in 2011 almost 11k voters remained in Region 4.

The coalition  victory was due to a massive African grass roots vote.  This included huge numbers of young and alienated people who didn't vote in 2006 and 2011.

The election victory was ALSO due to a SMALL swing Indian vote.

There are those who are putting 100% of the credit on Moses Nagamootoo.  They are triggering the reaction from certain PNC people, because the PNC knows full well that it is THEIR party infrastructure that organized most of the turn out at the campaign events, and also got the massive turn out.

The AFC provided access to funding networks that APNU might not have had.  They provided an illusion that there would be a significant Indian swing vote, which gave confidence that a defeat of the PPP was possible.  They also delivered a SMALL Indian swing vote, which was NOT enough to offset the 20% increase in votes which the PPP received.

The AFC negotiated and got a lot under the Cummingsburg Accord, given that they probably didn't bring in more than 10% of the coalition votes, maybe even less.  Yet some AFC supporters are negating the tremendous success of APNU, placing all the credit on Moses. 

Didn't other people in the AFC help?  Just Moses?  Didn't the APNU not use its tremendous resources to ensure that there were enough people showing up to campaign events in PPP strongholds to prevent the AFC from being embarrassed (yes we see the overwhelming predominance of African faces on the Corentyne and Essequibo Coast).

Many of these Nagamootoo AFC supporters remain fundamentally PPP folks who still disrespect the PNC.  Look at Mitwah, Jalil and HM-Redux's comments about Granger and the PNC before the coalition was announced.  Do they think that elements within the PNC, and the AFC aren't aware of these attitudes?

The PPP won 40% of the vote in Region 4, no different from 2011.  They were able to turn out their rural vote on the ECD and EBD in the same way that the coalition turned out the vote in PNC strongholds.

Where is the evidence of a Moses inroad into the PPP vote?

The highlighted argument is bullshit.  My assumption was based on empirical evidence.  I did run my arguments by people “in the know” and they agree that the assumption is reasonable.  The percentages did not change so it is safe to assume AFC would have held the same percentage of the combined AFC+APNU as they did in 2011.  I spent a lot of time on this topic because I thought/think that you are David Hinds.  Feel free to identify yourself by sending an email to vijaypuran@yahoo.com.  If you are worth it I might continue the discussion.

By the way, as a social scientist you should be able to put your numbers together in mathematical expressions rather than rambling like a drunk.

Caribny you are making the same assumptions in your post-election analysis.

We all start with this basic fundamental - no one has data on who voted for whom in the Regions. This is why its called a secret ballot. In the USA for instance statistical analyses use exit polling. In Guyana there was none of this. They also use Registered Democrats and registered Republicans and registered Independents, and using sampling data they extrapolate how registered voters deviate from party voting. They then use a collection of statistical tools - stochastic analysis, significance testing, regression, etc. to determine a modelling for probablistic results.

All that jargon aside, you use the following tenets:

• 90% of Blacks vote PNC/R of APNU. 10% vote for PPP/C, AFC and the other APNU coalition members. You make the AFC Black vote higher than normal in 2006 because of Trotman.
• You use the surge in Region 4 as if most of that is Black voters (and by the above premise) voted PNC/R of APNU.
• You use the surge in Region 10 as if it is all Blacks - again like Region 4.

You use as a premise that the surge in Region 6 (Region 5 is more mixed) all went to the PPP/C, because the AFC share of the 2015 (using a linear percentage of the APNU-AFC non-coalition joined 20122 vote and the basis) declined by 390. You then conveniently cast aside rthe actual 2011 Moses PPP cross-overs.

I haven't had the time to analyze either the election results using my own method to analyze yours as much as I'd like. the above is a prima facie response to t5henonsense you've written here about social science analysis in answering VVP. But you are asserting positions that you claim to be factual truth in a world of information that we have to apply rigorous rules of modeling. Your modeling has a lot of flaws.

The man only think in BLACK

Caribny, these are unassailable conclusions about the 2015 elections.

• No coalition and the PPP/C would be having its 5th term of government.
• The coalition idea was a risky and bold move by Moses Nagamootoo.
• The surge in Blacks would not have happened were it not for seeing an opportunity to defeat the PPP/C created by the pre-election coalition.

Yes, the PNC/R has the 2nd largest political organization (after the PPP/C) - the infrastructure to register and bring out voters on election day; and yes the AFC access to funding was important. Someone also mentioned Ramjattan's visit to Washington, DC that tied up some loose ends, but this in no way affected the free and fair imprimatur of the election.

Do you now see why the AFC got what it got in the Cummingsburg Agreement? Without that there is no President Granger. So quit your AFC and Moses bashing, and understand political hardball realities. Now let the people get on with governance - we've seen one tangible impact: the oil sector with transparency and keeping Venezuela in its place. You know how and why and by whom.

What empirical evidence did you cite.  There was no AFC vote in 2015 and yet you cited this.  So where did you get this? 

BTW when people descend to personal attacks, as you have done, they have basically signaled that they have lost the argument.

Aside from showing the SAME data which we have seen (aside from your fictional AFC numbers)  you have added NOTHING to this.

FACT. An African tsunami and a DISAPPOINTINGLY SMALL Indo swing vote delivered the coalition win.  Had there not been massive turn out the PPP would have won its 54%.

FACT.  Moses didn't bring over as many Indian votes as he anticipated, so stop wasting time with that.  Chalk it up to the vicious PPP campaign and Guyana's legacy of ethnic panic.  And in fact we all suspected that this would happen when we saw how overwhelmingly African the turn out to the campaign events on the Corentyne was.  I am sure that APNU saw this and realized that they had to have plan B, which was to ensure a mammoth turn out in PNC strongholds.

In 1997 the PPP won 221k votes.  In 2001 it won 210k votes.  2006 it won 182k votes, winning 166k in 2011.

Suddenly in 2015 it arrests its decline and turns out 202k voters.  This at a time when the PPP was held in disrepute, even by its core base, to the point where it engaged in the most racially divisive election since 1964.

So why was the PPP able to turn out 36k voters.  Who are these people, and why did they decide to vote, when they hadn't since 2001.

As to the PNC bloc.  Every analyst credits a very high showing by young voters and alienated voters, NOT the type who generally support the AFC.  Outside of the Nagamootoo vote, the AFC is a party of intellectual elites, who vote on issues and not on ethnic insecurity.

The vast majority of those 66k additional voters are the disaffected.   This vote went straight to the PPP or to the PNC, depending on which voting boc that you refer.

Peddling the fact that you can design machines, or that you spoke to "people in the know" is a joke.  Every faction has their own spin on this, so what's your point?  Did you speak to hard core APNU people?  Bet you not.

I am not David Hinds. 

I am now suspecting  a racial motive from you Kari.  You know full well that I defended the Cummingsburg Accord.  I got over my skepticism about it BEFORE you did.  I also cited it as evidence to Shaitaan and basemen that the Indo holocaust that they screamed of was NOT going to happen because of the Accord.  

OBVIOUSLY the PNC had to do something to indicate to Indians that they weren't going to be the African dictatorship that they feared it would be, and so it gave the AFC power WAY in excess of that which it deserved, because even in his wildest dreams, even Moses knew that the AFC wasn't going to account for 40% of the coalition votes.

So why the FK are you trying to claim that I am against the Cummingsburg ACCORD? 

Here is your motive Kari.

Some of you all got tossed out of the PPP.   You moved to the AFC, but then realized that the AFC lacked the infrastructure to move beyond being a "10%" party.  So you entered a coalition with APNU, with the goal of infiltrating it and taking it over.

Not going to happen, because you all don't even begin to know how to deal with the likes of a Sharma Solomon.  In fact as of now I am sure that Linden is claiming its own share of benefits by delivering a 14,000 margin of victory to the PPP.  Linden ALONE brought in more votes than Nagamootoo did.

You got the Cummingsburg Accord.  Why don't you all relax and learn how to work with black people, because your current antics, if this is how the AFC Indo faction is behaving, is catering to the very paranoias that many Afro Guyanese have of Indians. I am hearing the grumbling.

Also Kari let us look at another scenario.  Suppose Granger send no, as elements within the PNC said he should, where would that have left the AFC.

They were not prepared to contest an election without massive support from APNU.  Yes the PPP might have won, but where would the AFC have been if the PPP engineered race panic attack left them with few votes.

And they would have done this, given that by 2011 the PPP vote had tumbled to levels well within the capabilities of the PNC to beat them, if not getting a majority.  In 2001 the PNC won 166k votes, same as that won by the PPP in 2011.

This is why campaign events on the CORENTYNE COAST looked like something in Tucville, when one saw the ethnic composition of these crowds.  Please don't tell me that the coalition wasn't getting worried at the very small turn out by Indians in majority Indian locations.

Kari without these loud and exciting events, there would NOT have been the excitement among the young and alienated to go vote.  These are the people who offset that PPP tsunami against Moses.

Here is what happened Kari. 5AM in the PNC strongholds YOUNG black MEN (who NEVER vote) were going from house to house waking people up and getting them out to vote.  They went around in the afternoon and checked to see whether people had voted.  If there were NOT the large and loud campaign events these people would NOT have been interested.

So go insult them by claiming that Moses Nagamootoo deserves all the credit.  Prove to these people that Indians fundamentally disrespect black people, and discredit their achievements. 

Like I said, I am hearing grumbling so I am cautioning you all to cease with your Moses Mania.  Let the man do his work.