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August 18 ,2020

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Dear Editor,

I again advise the government to give up the Amaila Falls hydro project. Economists would be better able to handle the problematic sourcing of funds, so I would like to comment in my capacity as an energy technologist with some plain figures.

At the last quoted price of US$858.1M for 165 MW, it works out at US$5.2 per watt. No one believes that price will not go up, and we are not even considering transmission and distribution (T&D). The US$2.2M contract for the β€œDesign, Supply and Installation of a 150 kW hydropower plant on the Chiung River, at Kato Village, in Region Eight” signed by the APNU+AFC government in September of last year works out at US$14.7 per installed watt with T&D for that area only.

Now let me tell you that it is costing one of my clients, in 2020, GY$2.6M to put up a 6 kW solar power system with 10-year LiFePO4 batteries, which makes him independent of GPL power for 2 complete consecutive rainy days. At GY$218 to US$1 this works out to US$2 per installed watt (with wiring costs included). Even with 80% power factor in induction motor appliances, this is still much more attractive.

Therefore, the way to go is as I had written some years ago. Use the money to install solar power in homes, not large central stations. Where there are already central stations, grid-tie systems can bring down costs even more.

Start with the outlying hinterland areas. Remote and virtual education will require reliable power, so the Ministry of Education (MoE) has to get into the act. People using such systems must demonstrate that they are qualified to maintain them. Let the MoE provide the training as part of normal education in the 21st Century. Don’t wait for CXC to provide a syllabus. Let CXC use our model. Imagine neighbours cooperating with one another in this training! Internet connectivity can follow. This is also a way of government placing control in the hands of its people, and ultimately empowering those faced with hard choices to forego illegal moneymaking and contribute to their societies.

I see no obstacle to using the Norway funds and the oil revenues for getting the benefit of renewable energy to the people. When the oil runs out, this infrastructure and education will remain to be passed on.

Yours faithfully,

Alfred Bhulai 

Think Engine Institute & Energy Services

Replies sorted oldest to newest

@Former Member posted:

Solar energy indeed has its place and influence in society.

However, hydroelectric power projects provide reliable, long-term services to and for the community.

Costs for construction and related works in Guyana are somewhat high due to the locations of the potential sites and access to them.

That's the problem ,unless towns are created more inland ,transmission lines cost will be reduced.

Django

Indeed Django ... indeed ---

However, with the start of construction of this major project; hopefully in a few years from now; major industries will develop because of the reliable source of energy plus there will be a much stable source of energy for local/consumer purposes.

Rehabilitation of the Tumatumari hydroelectric power station plus the continued construction of small/mini hydropower plants will provide a more stable source of energy to the local communities in the interior.

FM

Natural gas is readily available from the offshore oil extraction. It may be a lot cheaper to bring it onshore rather than spending a billion dollars on hydroelectricity and only getting 165 MW output. For that amount of power generation, most countries were paying less than half a billion dollars. PPP bais will be set for life if we invest in this billion dollar goadie at Amaila Falls.

There was also an option for Brazil to build a huge hydro plant in Guyana and we were going to get the electricity free in Guyana with some of it sent to the Roraima region in Brazil. Only drawback, no drawback for the PPP so they never pursued it. 

Mars
Last edited by Mars
@Former Member posted:

Indeed Django ... indeed ---

However, with the start of construction of this major project; hopefully in a few years from now; major industries will develop because of the reliable source of energy plus there will be a much stable source of energy for local/consumer purposes.

Rehabilitation of the Tumatumari hydroelectric power station plus the continued construction of small/mini hydropower plants will provide a more stable source of energy to the local communities in the interior.

An Industrial Park will have to created at a feasible area for manufacturing ,also the people have to educated for employment .Competition is high in manufacturing around the world ,so studies will have to be carried out. One good venture is manufacturing of of silicon panels.

Silica Sands are exported  https://www.facebook.com/guyana.silica.sand/

Django
@Mars posted:

Natural gas is readily available from the offshore oil extraction. It may be a lot cheaper to bring it onshore rather than spending a billion dollars on hydroelectricity and only getting 165 MW output. For that amount of power generation, most countries were paying less than half a billion dollars. PPP bais will be set for life if we invest in this billion dollar goadie at Amaila Falls.

There was also an option for Brazil to build a huge plant in Guyana and we going to get the electricity free in Guyana. Only drawback, no drawback for the PPP so they never pursued it. 

Mars, You are more intelligent than that. The monies were for more than just the Power station.  It included the access roads and power lines and other infrastructure.  Some of this will be needed anyway regardless and the access roads will open up lands for settlement.

FM
@Django posted:

An Industrial Park will have to created at a feasible area for manufacturing ,also the people have to educated for employment .Competition is high in manufacturing around the world ,so studies will have to be carried out. One good venture is manufacturing of of silicon panels.

Silica Sands are exported  https://www.facebook.com/guyana.silica.sand/

Django ...

Indeed on silicon panels and like other countries studies are worthwhile.

We need to see how issues will develop for hydroelectric projects.

There are a number of proposals/studies for local and other countries like Brazil to be involved in this area.

FM
@Former Member posted:

Django ...

Indeed on silicon panels and like other countries studies are worthwhile.

We need to see how issues will develop for hydroelectric projects.

There are a number of proposals/studies for local and other countries like Brazil to be involved in this area.

The Government of Guyana should partner with Brazil to develop hydro ,they are experienced with hydro system.

Django

The Chinese control solar patents.  They bought up the solar patents in the early 1980s when Ronald Reagan rip up the solar panels on the white house roof that was installed by Carter.  Everyone started abandoning solar for fossil fuel and solar companies went bankrupt.  The Chinese quickly bought up American solar energy patents from the bankrupt American solar companies for next to nothing.  Now a Chinese company called Canadian Solar is the world's largest solar panel maker.

Prashad
Last edited by Prashad
@Django posted:

The Government of Guyana should partner with Brazil to develop hydro ,they are experienced with hydro system.

There were proposals by Brazil when the PPP/C was the government prior to 2015.

Hopefully, those proposals may be pursued now.

Basically, the proposal was for Brazil to develop the project, energy will be provided to Brazil and Guyana will be provided with the needed energy.

FM
@Former Member posted:

Mars, You are more intelligent than that. The monies were for more than just the Power station.  It included the access roads and power lines and other infrastructure.  Some of this will be needed anyway regardless and the access roads will open up lands for settlement.

Every country has infrastructure they have to build when developing a hydro plant. What makes you think that Guyana is unique in this manner? Yet, a measly 165 MW plant is coming in at a billion dollars in Guyana when everyone else is paying less than half a billion for a plant of that size. That is not value for money except for Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves. The mere fact that a Puja shop owner owned the rights to build a billion dollar hydro project in Guyana should be a huge red flag right up front. The man walked away with millions after building a road to nowhere and selling the project rights to Sithe. At least the Guy from Demerara had engineering experience building latrines. This Puja shop clown was selling saris and incense and then trying to build a hydro dam. Explore the natural gas or the Brazil options. It makes a lot more sense than dropping a billion dollar goadie on Guyanese to repay for the next forty years. Somehow, I think Ali Baba will revive the Amaila project because there is a lot of soup to share with the Forty.  

Mars

Source - Renewables First - https://www.renewablesfirst.co...stems-cost-to-build/

It’s quite difficult to make generalisations about the cost to build hydro systems because of the different combinations of head (the change in water levels between the intake and discharge) and maximum flow rate, and how that affects the maximum power output and choice of turbine type.

Also the extent of any civil engineering works is very site dependent, with some new-build sites requiring everything to be built from scratch, while other retrofit projects can make use of and adapt the existing civil engineering structures.

Having said that, we’ll try to answer the question anyway to give you an idea of the β€˜scale’ of costs involved. The table below is a rough ball-park estimate of typical project costs for systems requiring an β€˜average’ amount of civil engineering works and grid connection upgrades and assuming access to the site was reasonable. In all cases it is assumed that good quality hardware is used throughout, which we would recommend anyway if you want a reliable hydro system in the long-term.

It is possible to install systems for a lower cost, particularly if the existing infrastructure at the site lends itself to easy adaption for a modern hydropower system so only modest or no civil engineering works would be needed. However even in the most favourable circumstances it is unlikely that the cost would reduce by more than 50% from that shown in the table.


Maximum Power OutputEstimated Project CostΒ£ / kW installed
25 kWΒ£169kΒ£6.8k
50 kWΒ£300kΒ£6.0k
100 kWΒ£529kΒ£5.3k
250 kWΒ£963kΒ£3.8k
500 kWΒ£1.6MΒ£3.2k

To estimate the cost to build hydro systems for a maximum power output between the bands shown, use the chart below and read-off the appropriate Β£/kW figure – for example a 130 kW hydro system would be approximately
130kW x 4,800 Β£/kW = Β£624,000.

https://www.renewablesfirst.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/cost-to-build.pngYou’ll notice that very small hydropower systems are disproportionately expensive, and this is because hydro projects of any size have to include a substantial fixed-cost element at the design and consenting stages, and to a slightly lesser degree during the installation stage. This is why we generally advise people that to get an economically-viable hydropower system the maximum power output will have to be at least 25 kW, and preferably at least 50 kW. Smaller systems can make sense, particularly at sites with higher heads or if other intangible benefits, such as sustainability, environmental protection or publicity, are valued as much as return on investment.

The payback period for the project can be reduced keeping the inlet screen clear of debris which maximises energy generation. This can be automatically acheived using our innovative GoFlo Travelling screen manufactured in the UK by our sister company . Discover the benefits of installing a GoFlo travelling screen on your hydropower system in this case study: Maximising the benefits of hydropower technology using innovative GoFlo travelling screen technology.

FM
Last edited by Django
@Ramakant-P posted:

If you think that the PNC can develop Guyana, then you are the dreamer.

You will live to see how Guyana develop under the PPP. It started already.

Just take a look at their manifesto and you will be surprised what they are going to do for all Guyana.

Look at how they underdeveloped Guyana during their 23 years.

Here is the PPP record after 23 years:

# Failed education system with illiteracy was on the rise.

# Broken health care system

# Highest infant/mother mortality rate in the region

# Poorest country in the hemisphere

# Most corrupt country in the region

# Increased racial divisiveness within their  23 years - state sponsored

# Broken transportation system

# Broken electricity system - random and prolonged black outs

# Broken roadworks & bridges - crippling the movement of goods and people

# Broken water and sewage system - no and sometimes unsafe piped water

# Country was in state of dictatorship with the closure of parliament

# Rolling back of press freedoms with media being threatened

# Extra judicial killings and disappearances was on the rise

# State sponsored demoralizing of armed services

Both the PPP and PNC are bad news for developing Guyana. 

 

Mitwah
Last edited by Mitwah
@Mitwah posted:

Look at how they developed Guyana during their 23 years. Both the PPP and PNC are bad news for developing Guyana. 

It's Prado all over again and foreign bank accounts. 

You should have visited Guyana during those days.  Look at all the projects that were completed under Jagdeo's watch. There was no missing money from the treasury during that time. So stop making up stories because nobody cares for your sarcasm and inuendos.  The PPP completed over 3500 projects. Deal with it.  They will do it again.  Look how they start to criticize the PPP for things they haven't done yet. Do you believe yourself?

R
@Ramakant-P posted:

You should have visited Guyana during those days.  Look at all the projects that were completed under Jagdeo's watch. There was no missing money from the treasury during that time. So stop making up stories because nobody cares for your sarcasm and inuendos.  The PPP completed over 3500 projects. Deal with it.  They will do it again.  Look how they start to criticize the PPP for things they haven't done yet. Do you believe yourself?

3500 Projects? You got to be drunk this early morning. Look at their record after 23 years. 

Mitwah
@Ramakant-P posted:

Trump had to be smart to win the Presidency of the USA. Compare to Burnham, Hoyte, and Granger, Jagdeo is a genius.

It was stupid people who voted a stupid man in, nothing to do with idiotman being smart.  If it wasn't for his dad making rich by corrupt means that fool would now be sleeping in the streets.

cain
Last edited by cain

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