Gilly:

* Our friend yuji just returned from India.

* It looks like the man turn SWAMI.

* The bhai says he lost interest in political fights.

* Next thing swami yuji might say he lose interest in SEX.hahahaha

* HOPE BHAI YUJI HAS A GOOD SENSE OF HUMOR.

* Or Rev will lose a friend.

Rev

Click on the link if you are a mature adult with a sense of humor:

https://guyana.crowdstack.io/topic/good-girls-vs-bad-girls

Rev

Rev

I take everything in strides. We are all mature people here.

Sex is an integral part of a relationship. Loose that and you loose out.

I have decided to engage with posters in a civil way and stay away from disagreements. 

I will mend fences with those that I used harsh words against during my political postings in the past. Gil is owed an apology since I once called him a PNC stooge, words that I later regretted using.

carib:

* You can post all the QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS you want---but it is the QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS the Rev presents that gives us a feel of how the major ethnic groups are actually voting.

* If it would make you feel happy---the Rev will readily admit that nothing lasts forever---and therefore the PPP will not rule Guyana forever----but unless the AFC and PNC form a coalition----the PPP will likely rule Guyana for another 100 years-----because no way ever would the PNC win a free and fair election in Guyana.

Rev

NOW LET US RETURN TO THE AFC:

* The AFC received 35,333 votes in 2011----10.3% of the overall votes.

* There were 342,236 voters in the 2011 election.

* Assuming the turnout was 45% Indians, 41% blacks and 14% others

HERE ARE LIKELY COMBINATIONS OF INDIAN, BLACK, AND OTHER VOTES THAT WOULD LEAD TO THE 10.3% THE AFC RECEIVED:

* 10.3% AFC = 15% Indians + 4% Blacks + 14% Others

* 10.3% AFC = 15% Indians + 5% Blacks + 11% Others

* 10.3% AFC = 15% Indians + 6% Blacks + 8% Others

OBSERVATION:

* Whatever combination you look at---it is crystal clear that the AFC pulled a significant amount of Indian votes---15%

* The AFC did poorly among blacks---4-6%

* THE AFC WILL NEVER WIN A GENERAL ELECTION.

* But the AFC can play a pivotal role in helping the PNC win a general election.

* THE NUMBERS DON'T LIE FOLKS ----A VOTE FOR THE AFC IS A VOTE FOR THE PNC TO RULE GUYANA AGAIN.

* And you know what that means folks ? Impoverishment and ruination of the Guyana economy and destruction of the social progress that has been made under the PPP.

Rev

* With the current crisis in the AFC---Nigel Hughes is fighting off corruption and fraudulent charges---Moses is dying to replace Nigel as Chairman of the Party---Moses is also dying to replace Ramjattan as the AFC's presidential candidate...

* Given the current crisis in the AFC---what percentage of the 15% Indians who voted for the AFC in 2011 can the PPP hope to regain ?

Rev

My calculated guess is that 50 percent of the PPP votes lost to the AFC will be regained. 

The AFC failed to remain an independent party and was taken for a ride by the PNC. The Nigel/Cathy scandals will have a huge impact on how these voters view the AFC.

The PPP should not hesitate to call an election should the opposition fail to approve the budget. The PNC is broke, funding for the AFC dried up and the PPP war chest is full.

Politics is a dirty business and parties with deep pockets always have a major advantage.

I fear that if Nigel is kicked out of the AFC we may see political violence during the campaign. Interesting times ahead.

yuji:

* The AFC received 35,333 votes in 2011

* Of that 35,333 votes---23,100 were likely Indians, 8400 blacks, 3833 others.

CHECK THIS:

* The PPP received 166,340 votes in 2011 = 48.6%

* The PPP needed 5120 more votes to get 50.1% = majority

===========================

* You said you expect 50% of the Indian votes to be regained---if the AFC received 23,100 Indian votes----50% would be 11,550

* THE PPP NEEDS HALF OF THAT 11,550 TO WIN A MAJORITY IN THE NEXT ELECTION.

* Assuming of course the turnout remains the same as 2011.

Rev

PS. PNC diehard Caribny will come here braying about QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS---he'll be posting his usual drivel---that's OK.

Rev

You are a man of numbers and no one can argue with a man who knows his numbers.

I am confident that the PPP will regain 50 percent of the lost votes. The sympathy votes that Moses received was understandable. Moses was popular in the area where the PPP lost most of the votes.

Many of the voters who supported Moses felt betrayed after the AFC aligned themselves with the PNC. Appointing Nigel as Chairman ahead of Moses angered many AFC supporters in Berbice.

Allegations of Fradulent activities and lack of accountability in the AFC which later led to defections shook up the AFC. Many of Moses supporters felt betrayed and Berbicians do not forget events that easily.

Relatives who live in the area where Moses received most of the votes told me that they are angry at the AFC and have defected back to the PPP where they feel that are being represented.

The PPP needs to invest heavily in Berbice. It will pay dividends. 

yuji:

* As you are fully aware, "NUMBERS" are only as good as the assumptions you make in  modeling.

RE: THE MOSES NAGAMOOTOO FACTOR

* No question Moses played a pivotal role in the AFC pulling 15% OF THE Indian votes 2011.

* But as you correctly pointed out---many Berbicians feel betrayed by Moses.

* Also Moses Nagamootoo's NOVELTY has completely dissipated,

* If the AFC doesn't form a coalition with the PNC in the next election----they will likely end up with 6-7% of the overall votes----they got 10.3% in 2011.

Rev