With the ruling PPP/C under pressure on various fronts and disarray in the PNCR ranks following its turbulent congress, the AFC’s recent attempts to keep government accountable has given the party a boost but expanding long-term support of the electorate remains a work in progress.

Over the past few weeks, the AFC has pushed strongly for a no-confidence vote against the Donald Ramotar administration citing what it described as the illegal spending of billions of dollars by Finance Minister Dr Ashni Singh. Speaker of the National Assembly Raphael Trotman has since referred Singh to the House’s Committee of Privileges over the matter. The AFC needs the support of the opposition coalition APNU for the no-confidence motion to be passed but APNU has thus far made no commitment and signals from coalition representatives suggest that it does not view the motion favourably.

The National Assembly heads for a three-month recess from next week and from all indications, there will be no sitting of the House before August 10 when the recess officially begins thus the no-confidence motion is unlikely to be laid until October when sittings resume. If the motion was passed by the combined opposition, it would trigger general elections within three months. With sittings resuming in late October, it appears that general elections- should the motion be passed- would be unlikely this year.

For now, the AFC appears to be in a favourable position in contrast to the two major parties which face various pressures.

Tarron Khemraj

Christopher Ram

Apart from the AFC’s proposed no-confidence motion, the Donald Ramotar administration is under pressure as more and more sections of the populace clamour for long-delayed Local Government Elections (LGE) to be held. The administration, in response, has trotted out excuses such as claiming that the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) is not ready for elections – a claim that the Commission has consistently rubbished – and that the populace is not ready. Local government elections have not been held for the past 20 years.

In President Donald Ramotar – who has said that he sees no reason why he should not lead the PPP/C to the polls for a second time – the ruling party has a candidate under whom the party lost its majority in the National Assembly and produced its worst election result ever. In a seeming acknowledgement of the position the party is in, Ramotar two Saturdays ago, said that he would prefer to wait until the required five-year term had elapsed before elections are called. In addition, it has been pointed out that in almost every area of governance there have been persistent allegations of governmental excess, wrong-doing, corruption and even criminality.

Disarray

The PNCR, meanwhile, is in disarray after its uproarious Congress last weekend exposed deep rifts over electoral propriety within the party and it took a public relations hit. Before Congress, PNCR leader David Granger’s leadership was severely criticised particularly over his dearth of achievements as Opposition Leader and over the handling of a disciplinary matter involving the PNCR’s parliamentarian from its Linden stronghold, Vanessa Kissoon. In addition, many Linden delegates including Granger’s challengers Sharma Solomon and Aubrey Norton walked out of Congress after saying that the process was flawed and Lindeners were being disenfranchised. Another sting was the firing of a gun at the Congress with the alleged shooter being nabbed at the airport and charged. Analysts have said that the Congress events are a step backward for the PNCR and its leader David Granger.

The signals that the opposition coalition APNU – of which the PNCR is the main constituent – has been sending regarding the AFC’s no-confidence motion have also suggested that APNU will not support the motion. Several analysts have pointed out that should it go this route, the party will have to explain to its supporters why it did not vote in favour of the motion as that would be seen as holding the government accountable.

Dithered

Analyst and chartered accountant Christopher Ram noted that the PNCR/APNU has dithered over any no-confidence motion or the pursuit of Local Government Elections and clearly gives the impression that it is quite comfortable to let the PPP/C continue in power until 2016.

“While I doubt whether many of its own supporters would be comfortable with such a position, they may not feel strongly enough to vote for any other party. On the other hand the AFC might very well pick up support from those who are confused by or disappointed with the PNCR and the PPP/C,” he told Stabroek News.

“It is still early days and it may be premature to think that Guyana is locked into a three-horse race. That may not hold for the next elections in which the Justice For All party is likely to participate on its own and some other persons may just decide that it is time that we have other party(ies) offering the electorate real options,” he said.

According to Ram, the PPP/C and the PNCR are still seen as two sides of the same coin, “willing to operate under a flawed Constitution, ambivalent about popular democracy and unclear about their philosophy.” He asserted that it is worth noting that on key policy issues, the PNCR/APNU do not have any real differences with the PPP/C while the AFC is committed to liberal democracy which it has so far failed to explain.

“At this moment I think some but not significantly strong political wind has favoured the AFC while the WPA (part of APNU) is benefitting from the Walter Rodney Commission of Inquiry. Politics is full of ups and downs and twists and turns,” Ram said.

Meantime, economist and APNU supporter Tarron Khemraj stated that the no-confidence vote will not make the AFC gain mass support, although he believes that the party could gain a slightly higher percentage if PNCR supporters stay home in large numbers. “I don’t believe third parties win mass support in this manner. Third parties grow with a clear vision and positive messaging, in my opinion,” he said.

“Moreover, Guyanese get stressed out when general elections come about. The independent voters, business community and young professionals may not be as sympathetic to the AFC as their strategists assume once election is precipitated,” he asserted. Khemraj said that the PPP/C would also be expected to blame the AFC and APNU for being power drunk and wanting power in early elections.

“The PPP is a master party at playing victim. If there is a no-confidence vote and there is (an) election later this year or early next year, with the PNCR in disarray, there is more likely to be low voter turnout among PNCR supporters,” he opined. “What this means is the AFC could pick up a slightly higher percentage of votes and the PPP scraping home the 51%,” Khemraj asserted.

Debacle

“The debacle at Sophia changes the calculus in my opinion. When Mr (Moses) Nagamootoo (of the AFC) proposed the no-confidence vote he could not have anticipated an implosion at the congress,” the economist declared.

He said that at this point, the best strategy – with less risk and a higher rate of return for the opposition – is to unite and lobby hard for local government elections. “Go to CARICOM, organize protests in front the UN, lobby US Senators and … Canadian, British, Brazilian and Indian officials, picket Freedom House and (Office of the President) daily, organize multi-ethnic marches of PNCR and Mr Nagamootoo’s supporters from Berbice. Bring the supporters out in unified multi-ethnic peaceful marches for LGEs. Even the Private Sector Commission wants LGEs,” he asserted.

Meantime, former Speaker of the National Assembly Ralph Ramkarran in his Sunday Stabroek column, said that the PPP has gained from recent events. “While the PNCR is in disarray and the AFC’s motion of no confidence now appearing as if it will go nowhere, the PPP’s consistent strategy gives it renewed comfort. It knows that it has a minority government and is employing every strategy to keep it functioning. It has rejected out of hand any form of coalition. It intends to stay in office for as long as possible. Whenever this is no longer possible, it will dissolve the National Assembly and call elections, which the PPP/C believes it will win. This is a fixed strategy from which it is not deviating. It has been paying dividends in terms of retaining office,” the former PPP stalwart noted.

Ramkarran stated that the opposition’s agenda in the meantime, if it was ever a coherent one in the first place, has fizzled out. “It has rejected major infrastructural work such as the Amaila Hydroelectric Project and the Airport Project for no good reason. It has been forced to support enough of the budget to keep the Government alive. Those portions that it rejects, the Government implements anyway by spending sums not initially approved. The bills that it has passed have not been assented to by the President. Its parliamentary resolutions have been ignored. The Public Procurement Commission has not been appointed. The AFC’s no confidence motion appears stillborn. Apart from voting down the Government in the National Assembly, it now has no other strategy,” he said.

The former Speaker said that the opposition now has the challenge of devising a new strategy. “Enormously popular, with a great mobilizing capacity, would be the call for national unity through a coalition government, if placed at the top of its political agenda. It must have dawned on the Opposition, and all Guyana by now, that full emancipation and liberation cannot be achieved unless all are fully represented in and have a stake in the governance of Guyana,” he said.

Ramkarran also noted that there is no reason why the government cannot now proceed to hold local government elections since a decision as to general elections is not likely to be taken until next year. “There is therefore the second half of this year during which elections can be held.

This would divert attention from some unwelcome issues. It will also occupy the energies and resources of everyone until the end of the year. This is the sensible thing to do and it will relieve the government of lot of pressure from the opposition, civil society and the diplomatic community,” he said.

Despite PNCR leader David Granger and other party members labeling the tumultuous recently-held 18th Biennial Congress a “success,” it is being viewed as a step backwards by political analysts, with Granger being seen as slow to take action to reassure supporters and the PPP as the big winner.

“I feel one step was made forward in the past six months, but the aftermath of the Congress is clearly two steps backward. The PPP and the oligarchs with connections to government contracts are the biggest winners. The PNCR congress appears to have achieved what the Rodney COI (Commission of Inquiry) could not,” economist and APNU supporter Tarron Khemraj told Stabroek News.

“While there was no violence at the Congress and the leadership has dismissed allegations of vote rigging, the firing of a gunshot and the loud protestations of disenfranchisement were the worst kind of public relations disaster for the PNCR,” former Speaker of the National Assembly Ralph Ramkarran said in his Sunday Stabroek column, which appears today.

“The PNCR congress has come and gone, but the major issues that faced the party, some of which arose at the congress itself, will have repercussions for years to come,” former Government minister Dr. Henry Jeffrey wrote in his Future Notes column in the Stabroek News.

“It is unbelievable that Granger would not see that the events surrounding the Congress elections has done damage to the party’s image in the eyes of all right thinking Guyanese,” political analyst Christopher Ram told Stabroek News. Granger’s perception on the matter is immaterial as it is the perception of the people which is paramount, he added. The question ought not to be whether damage was done, but how much, and how long the damage done will plague the party, Ram asserted.

Aubrey Norton

Ralph Ramkarran

David Granger

Granger has labelled the Congress – during which he was returned as party leader – a success and said that he believes that though attempts were made by a small group to tarnish the party’s image, they failed. The group Granger refers to comprises those led by Sharma Solomon and Aubrey Norton. Solomon and Norton, who were nominated to challenge Granger for the party’s leadership at the congress, have been the most vocal in making accusations of manipulation of the party’s electoral process, including the deliberate disenfranchising of party members and potential delegates from Linden, in Region 10.

Solomon pulled out of the race due to his lack of confidence in the accreditation process while Norton withdrew from the contest for similar reasons. Norton has alleged that the problems with the party’s accreditation process were manufactured to ensure Granger remained party leader. Some Lindeners, who claimed to qualify for accreditation, additionally, caused a commotion at Congress Place as they protested the situation. In the commotion which ensued, a gunshot was fired, allegedly to rescue a woman who had fallen and was being trampled.

Granger has said that the group failed to achieve its intended goal of embarrassing the party and stressed that the party’s image remains intact.

Others, however, view it differently.

Lost opportunity

Khemraj said that he cannot think of a party congress that had so much implications for Guyana’s future than the PNCR’s 18th Biennial Congress. Granger was making significant progress building up favorable public perceptions and winning hearts for APNU, which most folks see as PNCR, he said while adding that he knows of several East Indians on the cusp of support and already pledging support. However, he added, the aftermath of the Congress is clearly two steps backwards for the party. The PPP and the oligarchs with connections to government contracts are the biggest winners and the congress appears to have achieved what the Rodney COI could not, Khemraj asserted.

“The PNCR now needs to work five times harder to move away from this debacle,” Khemraj declared. He said that he felt that the party’s account of who instigated the disruptions is important and it is very detailed, clearly itemizing that the list of voting delegates was credible. “However there is always going to be substantial segment of the population who will doubt the PNCR’s response and the state media and private media of the PPP will milk the events significantly,” he said.

“Therefore, I believe something radical needs to be done right now like a possible run-off of votes. Mr Granger will have to show herculean leadership at the moment,” Khemraj asserted. He said that Granger’s credibility is not affected and he is still seen as the most honest person to become President of Guyana. “However while the ruckus did occur under his watch as leader, I don’t believe he could have anticipated the kind of nihilistic display from brothers and sisters within. I get the impression he thought the challengers understood how much was at stake for the PNCR and the country as a whole,” he said.

Meantime, Ram told Stabroek News that Granger should have ordered an investigation into the party’s elections. He said that at a time when it was necessary and expected of Granger to address the excesses of the Government and the widely expressed shortcomings of the opposition led by him, the issues surrounding the elections became the dominant event.

“Unlike past congresses, there was no post-Congress rally at the Square of the Revolution at which a report is made of the events. Instead, the party held a press conference at which it criticized its own members and the chairman of the party suggested that PNCR elections need not meet the standard of fairness, probity and transparency of national elections,” he said.

“That is the opposite of what independent voters wanted to hear from the party in general and Mr. Granger, in particular, and raises questions about the culture of the party on the question of elections. In my view, Mr. Granger threw away a wonderful opportunity to show leadership by ordering an investigation into the elections. He has to be seen therefore as affected by if not part of the problem,” he asserted.

Damaging effect

Khemraj Ramjattan

Dr. Henry Jeffrey

Sharma Solomon

For his part, Jeffrey believes that the major issues that faced the PNCR – some of which arose at the congress itself – will have repercussions for years to come. Going into the congress, the major problem for the PNCR was the “disconnect” that has developed between the expectations of those who brought Granger to its leadership and the actual reality of his leadership, he said.

“APNU has not been able to transmit a liberating vision to its supporters or manage its relationships with them in an appropriate fashion,” he said, citing the “revolt” at the congress as an example. “Many of those who supported Mr. Granger’s 2010 leadership bid did so because they believed that, being a military man, he would have been able to provide the more militant leadership that they saw as necessary at that historical juncture. These expectations have been dashed as Mr. Granger has instead opted for an essential parliamentary strategy,” he said.

According to Jeffrey, this approach rests on the belief that if APNU is to receive political or even financial support from non-traditional supporters, it needs to at least suspend extra-parliamentary activities. “I have consistently questioned this way of thinking but this aside; it appears to me that at the operational level the party’s actions severely limit this strategy,” he said.

The former minister noted that over decades, the PPP has instilled in its traditional voters a few basic beliefs about the PNC. These were, he said, the party and its supporters are thugs and bullies, prone to high-handedness and the rigging of elections. “As if oblivious of this fact and the impact it could have on its goal of winning non-traditional support, we have been presented with an extremely acrimonious dispute surrounding the suspension of Ms. Vanessa Kissoon, the imposition of a coordinator in Linden and the manipulation of the delegates from that community that could only serve to reinforce the view that the PNCR should not be trusted with power,” Jeffrey pointed out.

He said that while the PNCR took the bold step of having open leadership elections, it did so with a mindset that wanted the propaganda value of openness while still maintaining control of the outcome of the electoral process. “History has also taught us that the greater openness there is, the less exclusion there must be, if only because opposing forces will most likely have enough support to thwart your agenda. The PNCR’s leadership wanted to have their cake and eat it, and as a result, events occurred at its congress that must have a damaging effect upon its parliamentary strategy,” he said.

Jeffrey noted too that the AFC’s proposed no-confidence motion against the government pushes APNU’s strategy that focuses on parliament to its limit, and again, it is being found wanting. “It may well be, as some believe, that the AFC, having recognised the risk-averse nature of APNU, has decided to play political brinksmanship in the hope that APNU will not support the motion, that there will be no elections and that it will benefit from the fallout of APNU supporters. This, of course, in no way means that APNU does not have to make a credible response,” he said.

However, he noted that for months, the entire opposition has been accusing the PPP/C of violating the constitution in various ways. Where the holding of local government elections is concerned, it has been claiming that the constitutional requirement to hold those elections cannot await the political convenience of the PPP/C or anyone else, he pointed out.

“How different is APNU from the PPP, when having been given the clear chance to put a stop to a regime that is violating the constitution, it meanders and even before the last congress ruckus, appears looking for an opening to scram! Is it not suggesting that upholding the constitution is also secondary to its own political fortunes? Indeed, in this respect, the political fallout at the congress might be considered something of a godsend for it provides a near perfect cover for rejecting the no-confidence approach,” Jeffrey asserted.

“The question now arises: what are we to make of APNU’s general political strategy? Not only is it refusing to take to the barricades against the PPP for violating the constitution; when it considers its electoral interest is at stake, it puts a brake on even its parliamentary approach! Added to these, its own manner of doing business severely compromises its chosen path,” he said. He added that up to now, Granger’s ideological orientation as it relates to actual governance, is not clear and the PNCR leader needs to provide greater details.

Renewed comfort for PPP

Meanwhile, Ramkarran said that the firing of a gunshot and the loud protestations of disenfranchisement at the Congress were the worst kind of public relations disaster for the PNCR. Even if the PNCR had been minded to support the proposed AFC motion of no confidence against the government, it is not now likely, he said.

“While the PNCR is in disarray and the AFC’s motion of no confidence now appearing as if it will go nowhere, the PPP’s consistent strategy gives it renewed comfort. It knows that it has a minority government and is employing every strategy to keep it functioning. It has rejected out of hand any form of coalition. It intends to stay in office for as long as possible. Whenever this is no longer possible, it will dissolve the National Assembly and call elections, which the PPP/C believes it will win. This is a fixed strategy from which it is not deviating. It has been paying dividends in terms of retaining office,” the former PPP stalwart noted.

Ramkarran stated that the opposition’s agenda in the meantime, if it was ever coherent one in the first place, has fizzled out. “It has rejected major infrastructural work such as the Amaila Hydroelectric Project and the Airport Project for no good reason. It has been forced to support enough of the budget to keep the Government alive. Those portions that it rejects, the Government implements anyway by spending sums not initially approved. The bills that it has passed have not been assented to by the President. Its parliamentary resolutions have been ignored. The Public Procurement Commission has not been appointed. The AFC’s no confidence motion appears stillborn. Apart from voting down the Government in the National Assembly, it now has no other strategy,” he said.

The former Speaker said that the opposition now has the challenge of devising a new strategy. “Enormously popular, with a great mobilizing capacity, would be the call for national unity through a coalition government, if placed at the top of its political agenda. It must have dawned on the Opposition, and all Guyana by now, that full emancipation and liberation cannot be achieved unless all are fully represented in and have a stake in the governance of Guyana,” he said.

Ramkarran stated that the opposition must know that the majoritarian impulse in liberal democratic theory is obstructive of the ‘legitimate expectation(s)’ of large minorities in any country. “If one section of Guyana feels excluded from governance, the other section(s) is insecure and the whole of Guyana is destabilised. We experienced just that in the 1970s and 1980s,” he said.

“After all these decades during which the ‘legitimate expectation(s)’ of the Guyanese people has been thwarted, it is not now going to be a gift from anyone and is not going to be met without a large scale, national and sustained struggle. The demand for a system of governance in Guyana which empowers all Guyanese must be elevated squarely onto the top of the political and civic agenda as the dominant political and civic issue of the day facing Guyana, requiring a united, national effort,” he asserted.