Explained: India’s tightrope walk between the West and Russia

He expressed his “long-standing conviction that the differences between Russia and the NATO group can only be resolved through honest and sincere dialogue”, the PMO said.

This was a fine balancing act as it called for “immediate cessation of violence” – something the Western bloc would appreciate.

India is in a diplomatic dilemma with key strategic partners on both sides. Modi held a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security on Thursday to take stock of the situation.

Earlier in the day, India expressed “regret” – an upgrade from expressing “concern”, but stopped short of condemnation of Russia’s attack on Ukraine. External Affairs minister S Jaishankar got calls from the European Union’s High Representative on Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell and British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss. The ambassadors of the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and US) and Ukraine met in Delhi to express solidarity on what they called “Russia’s unjustifiable military aggression”.

With pressure piling from the western bloc, led by the US, this is a test for New Delhi to make a strategic choice — principles and values on one side, and pragmatism and interests on the other side.

India’s statement at the UN Security Council, made in an emergency meeting, said, “The Security Council had met two days ago and discussed the situation. We had called for urgent de-escalation of tensions and emphasized on sustained and focused diplomacy to address all issues concerning the situation.”

At the meeting, India’s Permanent Representative at the UN T S Tirumurti said, “However, we note with regret, that the calls of the international community to give time to the recent initiatives undertaken by parties to diffuse tensions were not heeded to. The situation is in danger of spiralling into a major crisis. We express our deep concern over the developments, which if not handled carefully, may well undermine the peace and security of the region.” He called for “immediate de-escalation and refraining from any further action that could contribute to a worsening of the situation”.

The rest of his statement was about advocating diplomacy. The West views this as condoning Russia’s actions and as double standards given that India raises the issue of “territorial integrity and sovereignty” when it comes to China.

Earlier this week, India had not condemned Russia’s statement of recognition of the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Partners on both sides

While there is concern about Russia’s “muscle-flexing”, New Delhi does not want to jeopardise the close military ties with Moscow. Although India has diversified its new purchases from other countries, almost 60-70% of its military supplies are from Russia.

India has a historical relationship with Russia, spanning seven decades. While the relationship has stagnated in some areas and atrophied in others, its strongest pillar is of the defence basket.

In fact, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has held informal summits with only leaders of two countries — Putin and China’s Xi.

India can’t afford to alienate Russia particularly when Indian and Chinese troops remain in a border stand-off. Russia has emerged as a key diplomatic player amid the tension. India’s External Affairs and Defence ministers have met their Chinese counterparts in Russia in the last year and half. Russia is also key to India’s engagements in Afghanistan.

India’s ties with the West, led by the US, are crucial as well. Many American platforms have been used for reconnaissance and surveillance along the India-China border. Winter clothing for 50,000 troops has been sourced from these western strategic partners.

Russia-China axis

India is worried about the Russia-China axis too. Its purchase of the S-400 air defence system from Russia is aimed at preventing attacks from China and Pakistan.

India is also conscious that the hostility between the West and Russia is likely to push Moscow further in the direction of Beijing.

The West’s approach towards Russia after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 brought Moscow closer to Beijing, and India has always felt it was the West that led to this. The Sino-Russian quasi-alliance has been possible due to anti-Chinese rhetoric from Washington, collapse of oil prices, and Russia’s growing dependence on Chinese consumption.

Russia has been calibrated in its statements on issues China is sensitive to, such as Huawei’s 5G rollout, Hong Kong and Covid-19. Beijing and Moscow, however, do not always see eye to eye with each other. China does not recognise Crimea as part of Russia, and Moscow, formally speaking, takes a neutral stance on Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea.

Indians in Ukraine

Another concern for New Delhi is the Indian community in Ukraine, mostly medical students. The Indian Embassy in Kyiv has stated collating information on the students, as part of preparations for any hostilities. As per government estimates, about 16,000 Indian nationals are still in Ukraine – only about 4,000 students have been able to leave in the last few weeks. The government is trying to help many of them leave through land borders in neighbouring countries — Poland, Romania, Hungary and Slovak Republic.

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