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Originally Posted by alena06:

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From feedback that I have been getting out of Guyana, PPP is favored to win marginally.  There is concern that APNU supporters will not take a loss favorably.

Because they know that all the people who rigged the election in 1973 are now with the PPP and plan to do the  same on May 11th.  Kit, Norman, and the assorted Hammie and House of Israel thugs.

FM

While the air of change blows - and whether it will sustain the momentum and sweep up more undecideds is another matter - there is a trend in contemporary politics that is hardening attitudes.

 

Recent elections in Israel and likewise what we see in Suriname points to coalition politics that eventually drive people in one of two extreme camps. This is why I continue to caution about the binary choice with a coalition on the one hand and the PPP on the other. People will see choices on the extreme. Let me explain.

 

In the UK the disaffected voices (of the Tories and Labor)used to be with the Social Democrats. The Social Democrats had to compromise on their principles and thus the disaffected voices gave rise to parties like the UKIP that filled the void. We see the same with the TEA party in the US. Germany, Italy, Greece and others have all seen the move away from bipolar politics to where principles amalgamate and eventually polarize to two extremes.

 

What I'm driving at is people - and especially the disaffected ripe for the plucking by the AFC - will see that there is little difference in the main parties and their vote may not change policies. It's like the AFC protest votes of past have now gone mainstream by subsuming itself with APNU.

 

That said though, two phenomena are trending right now in Guyana:

  1. There is a glimmer of yearning for change
  2. Moses, not Granger, is igniting this flicker in ways that many do not give credit to the man.

We've seen Moses change the dynamic in the last election. I believe he could build on that within the AFC as a single party. However he may yet make us all believe that the AFC is not subsuming its identity to that of the PNC in APNU and that his AFC can lift the APNU by bringing back the 5% or so who voted no to Corbin by staying home.

 

There is nothing scientific in the above, but recent human history cannot be ignored.

Kari

Kari...the election prediction is in the margin of error. It is too close to call. That it is this close means the Alliance has lot a little. It is great to see that there is no blow out winner right now. Noting really will change regardless of who wins, but at least it is close...very close. The numbers are against the PPP. On the other hand, I have never seen so many Afros and mixed people at a PPP rally. Something has changed. This thing is too close to call. Anyone who says PPP getting 55% is dreaming. Mr Jadeo is still a great gift for the opposition.

FM
Originally Posted by TK:

........Mr Jadeo is still a great gift for the opposition.

I mentioned elsewhere that Jagdeo's insertion into the PPP campaigning is a double-edged sword. The normally calculated PPP is exhibiting an act of desperation maybe?

 

Moses has caught fire in the last 2 weeks and may yet prove me wrong in that he may yet have it within him to drag APNU (still with the PNC's internal divisions) past the finish line.

 

The core 40% APNU and 45% PPP (given the demographics, voter registration and expected voter turnout) still holds. It;'s the 15% that's in play that the AFC got 11% the last time around. That 4% is what looks like being swept up by Moses. Note how the AFC has changed from being a Ramjhataan/Trotman/Hughes party to one with a Moses stamp.

Kari
Originally Posted by Kari:

While the air of change blows - and whether it will sustain the momentum and sweep up more undecideds is another matter - there is a trend in contemporary politics that is hardening attitudes.

 

Recent elections in Israel and likewise what we see in Suriname points to coalition politics that eventually drive people in one of two extreme camps. This is why I continue to caution about the binary choice with a coalition on the one hand and the PPP on the other. People will see choices on the extreme. Let me explain.

 

In the UK the disaffected voices (of the Tories and Labor)used to be with the Social Democrats. The Social Democrats had to compromise on their principles and thus the disaffected voices gave rise to parties like the UKIP that filled the void. We see the same with the TEA party in the US. Germany, Italy, Greece and others have all seen the move away from bipolar politics to where principles amalgamate and eventually polarize to two extremes.

 

What I'm driving at is people - and especially the disaffected ripe for the plucking by the AFC - will see that there is little difference in the main parties and their vote may not change policies. It's like the AFC protest votes of past have now gone mainstream by subsuming itself with APNU.

 

That said though, two phenomena are trending right now in Guyana:

  1. There is a glimmer of yearning for change
  2. Moses, not Granger, is igniting this flicker in ways that many do not give credit to the man.

We've seen Moses change the dynamic in the last election. I believe he could build on that within the AFC as a single party. However he may yet make us all believe that the AFC is not subsuming its identity to that of the PNC in APNU and that his AFC can lift the APNU by bringing back the 5% or so who voted no to Corbin by staying home.

 

There is nothing scientific in the above, but recent human history cannot be ignored.

Bhai, it was a PRAYER that gave the AFC the edge. It was God at play. At GECOM that day, a PPPite tried to bamboozle Mr. Alexander. He desperately applied the wrong formula to award a seat in parliament. Just two votes gave AFC that seat. It was a Miraculous. A preparation for the days we are currently witnessing. Doan fool yuhself, it is not Moses.

 

That Prayer is still on God's Notebook.

 

The request is to dismiss the Ramotar/Jagdeo Clique.

 

Maybe a Tech person can re-post the Prayer.

S
Originally Posted by TK:

Kari...the election prediction is in the margin of error. It is too close to call. That it is this close means the Alliance has lot a little. It is great to see that there is no blow out winner right now. Noting really will change regardless of who wins, but at least it is close...very close. The numbers are against the PPP. On the other hand, I have never seen so many Afros and mixed people at a PPP rally. Something has changed. This thing is too close to call. 

 

Great observation TK. These facts are overlooked by many.

 

FM
Last edited by Former Member
Originally Posted by Kari:
Originally Posted by TK:

........Mr Jadeo is still a great gift for the opposition.

I mentioned elsewhere that Jagdeo's insertion into the PPP campaigning is a double-edged sword. The normally calculated PPP is exhibiting an act of desperation maybe?

 

Moses has caught fire in the last 2 weeks and may yet prove me wrong in that he may yet have it within him to drag APNU (still with the PNC's internal divisions) past the finish line.

 

The core 40% APNU and 45% PPP (given the demographics, voter registration and expected voter turnout) still holds. It;'s the 15% that's in play that the AFC got 11% the last time around. That 4% is what looks like being swept up by Moses. Note how the AFC has changed from being a Ramjhataan/Trotman/Hughes party to one with a Moses stamp.

That is reasonable.

FM
Originally Posted by TK:

Kari...the election prediction is in the margin of error. It is too close to call. That it is this close means the Alliance has lot a little. It is great to see that there is no blow out winner right now. Noting really will change regardless of who wins, but at least it is close...very close. The numbers are against the PPP. On the other hand, I have never seen so many Afros and mixed people at a PPP rally. Something has changed. This thing is too close to call. Anyone who says PPP getting 55% is dreaming. Mr Jadeo is still a great gift for the opposition.

Lots will change if the APNU-AFC wins. The entire leech class of PPP friends and family will be off the nations teat. NICIL will be reorganized and that is just a start. If APNU-AFC takes another decade to conclude the constitutional changes, I really do not care. I do not want a Chinese owned company suddenly formed with a Faux Chinese naturalized Guyanese taking over fishing. That is coming if the PPP remains in power. The fact these present crooks will not change the present pillage of our state.

FM
Originally Posted by Stormborn:
Originally Posted by TK:

Kari...the election prediction is in the margin of error. It is too close to call. That it is this close means the Alliance has lot a little. It is great to see that there is no blow out winner right now. Noting really will change regardless of who wins, but at least it is close...very close. The numbers are against the PPP. On the other hand, I have never seen so many Afros and mixed people at a PPP rally. Something has changed. This thing is too close to call. Anyone who says PPP getting 55% is dreaming. Mr Jadeo is still a great gift for the opposition.

Lots will change if the APNU-AFC wins. The entire leech class of PPP friends and family will be off the nations teat. NICIL will be reorganized and that is just a start. If APNU-AFC takes another decade to conclude the constitutional changes, I really do not care. I do not want a Chinese owned company suddenly formed with a Faux Chinese naturalized Guyanese taking over fishing. That is coming if the PPP remains in power. The fact these present crooks will not change the present pillage of our state.

I am not so sure they have the style of management to pull that off.

FM

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