1.  The mixed population has increased by over 70% since 1991.  This even as the total population has increased by a mere 3%.  Obviously this is due to the sharp increase in mixed race births since then.  Clearly we can assume that the under 25 and more so the under 18 are very definite in ethnic origin than is the mature adult population.  Make no bones about this, young people in every society are less likely to vote than do older adults.

2.  While there has been since 2001 a sharp decline in voting participation in places like south G/town and Linden, the last election in 2011 showed a similar decline in voter participation in rural areas. 

In 2011 the population which voted in Regions 4 and 6 were an identical 50% of the 2012 populations.  This might be impacted by the age structure of the regions.  we don't know if Region 6 has an older population than Region 4.  But unless Region 4 has a population that is much younger (more of the 50% non voters being kids who cannot vote) this suggests similar voting participation. 

Region 3 has seen a similar drop in voter turn out as Region 4 with a 12% drop in both instances.

3.  Even if it turns out that in 2011 a higher % of blacks and mixed voting age people didn't vote why do you think that they will in 2015. Whereas one might argue that Indians have sharply changing perspectives towards the PPP in the past 20 years Africans and mixed people have remained consistently hostile.

So we can conclude that

1.  either your notion of a 60% non Indian voting age population is NONSENSE

OR

2.  The PPP enjoys huge levels of support among non Indians, sufficient as even with the loss of 10k votes to Nagamootoo and lower than normal turnout in the heavily PPP Regions 2 and 3, they still got 49%.

Either wy your notion that the PPP is guaranteed to lose based on ethnic composition doesn't fly.

Fear of a return to existing under a quasi-aparthied system is a legit argument for rejecting that alternative.  Fear of a return to oppression, open discrimination, deprivation, brutality with impunity, etc.  Remember, those who forget the past.......

IF you focus on REGISTERED and LIKELY voters, you'll be able to explain a little better the divergence between the percentage of Indos and Blacks and the votes of the PPP and APNU. Looking at mierd-race voters and Amerindians and whether mixed-race people have more loyalty to APNU and so on misses the point. The PPP has traditionally done a better job on the ground.

1.  Where did these 100k voters suddenly come from in 3 years. The population is SHRINKING, and especially so among the younger cohort who are most likely to migrate, taking their kids.  Obviously the voter rolls are seriously flawed.

2.  Where are these 120k blacks who didn't vote?  Region 4 has the largest concentration of blacks in Guyana and there is no evidence that the voter turnout in 2011 was lower than  it was in heavily Indian areas like Regions 3 and 6.  The black population is 225k, and at least 65k of these will be too young to vote, leaving 160k of voting age.  So do you imply that black people didn't vote, because you definitely aren't suggesting that APNUs 40% came from beyond their usual black and mixed group.

Your fatal flaw is the fact that you over estimate the mixed population, but fail to explain why it has grown by 70% at a time when the population is no longer growing.

standard race bait sloganeering, impervious to reason by design

baseman started out a while back with full out "apartheid" then dialed it down to "quasi-apartheid" when i ran that particular piece of stupidness up the RIDICULE flagpole

"Oppression, open discrimination, deprivation, brutality with impunity, etc." exist at worse levels today except that the perpetrators have a different hair texture.  

Nah, only criminals will the brunt of the force.  the rest of the people live in peace and progress.

Crum-Ewing?

Kari we have no idea of the ethnic composition of the registered population and we definitely have no data on the likely voters.

All we can do is make an assumption that Indians and Africans are older than Amerindians and mixed and therefore will account for a higher % of the voters than they represent in the total population.

In 2006 voter turnout in PNC strongholds dropped, even when we adjust for the defection of many to the AFC.  In 2011 it rebounded, not to the 2001 levels but definitely above the 2006.  APNU won 139k votes in 2011 compared to PNC votes of 115k in 2006 and 161k in 2001.   The PPPs votes have been dropping like a bomb in every election since 1997.

APNU consistently gets 40% of the votes, the exception being in 2006 when there was a low turn out in PNC strongholds.  Given that the African % of the population has never exceeded 1/3 then we can deduce that the PNC wins the bulk of the mixed votes.  Destroy your fantasy that the mixed vote is more than 15%, and might even be closer to 12%. 

25% of the PNCs votes come from non African identified people.  Given that they traditionally have received few votes from either East Indians or Amerindians, the vast majority of this comes from mixed voters.  I will suggest to you that even with the existence of the AFC, the PNC grabs around 70% of the mixed identified vote. 

Given that the AFC was known, prior to the 2011 election, as the "red people party" one can assume that a high % of their pre Nagamootoo support base came from the mixed and African elites.

The PPP has not done that well among mixed voters as you will want to think. I can assure you that most mixed identified voters in Guyana aren't dougla, even if this is what some believe.   In Trinidad where there has been more African Indian miscegenation only 1/3 of their mixed identified populations are dougla.

I am giving AFC up to 5% votes and still they can't help APNU to win.

And 51% of them voted AGAINST the PPP. Even if all 10k votes that Nagamootoo brought in return to the PPP the fact remains that there is way more enthusiasm amongst younger voters than there was in 2011 and voter turn out in PNC strongholds might return to 2001 levels.

The election will be close, it can be 50.1% on either side.  Those who predict 54% for the PPP are a joke.

In fact the "lynching" of Granger and Nagamootoo in a certain PPP stronghold will hurt the PPP as it will underscore among even those who think that there is progress, that this isn't accompanied by peace.  Tearing down posters is one thing.  Hanging blood drenched effigies is another, and when PPP officials in certain regions are caught using racially offensive language it doesn't help the PPP.

What Indo racists like you need to know is that this isn't going to help the PPP.  Firstly more than  50% of the voters are no longer Indians, and secondly, many Indians want no part of bigotry against non Indians.

Now what will the two of you Indo KKK cronies likely to do if May 12th arrives and Granger and Nagamootoo are smiling, while Jagdeo is packing his bags for flight to Dubai?

We already have quasi apartheid and open discrimination in Guyana.  If one were to look at who the ministers of the important ministries are and who are the heads of state agencies one would be forgiven for thinking that the composition of Guyana's populations was like Mauritius with its 70% Indian population.

Now what is the PPP doing to involve more non Indians in governing the country to reduce the paranoia amongst Africans and mixed people?

The PNC does have its sordid past but by conceding 40% of the cabinet to a former enemy, Nagamootoo, even though he will probably not account for more than 20% of the votes.  And by given Nagamootoo the power to bring down an APNU gov't if he takes his 12 seats, given that we all know that APNU on its own will not win 33 seats.

That to me looks like a PNC which understands that one race rule of Guyana is a NONSTARTER.

This is the bullshit being regurgitated by the PPP, fear of the black man.

Should the PPP win, maybe it will be good if the Opposition really do what you racist pricks expect to be done. Kinda satisfy your desires to receive a good whopping.

Should the PNC win, one can expect a soft and conciliatory tone in their term.  The steel boots, bicycle chain gangs and brass knuckles will be unleashed if/when their hold on power is challenged at a future election.

It will be a Military Style Dictatorship!!