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FM
Former Member

Guyana’s laws preclude statistically valid exit polls – Hunt

 

THERE is no statistically valid way, given Guyana’s legal framework, to conduct an exit poll, according to the United States of America Embassy’s ChargÉ d’Affaires Bryan Hunt.“I think that is tremendously dangerous in the Guyanese context to claim that they know what the results were either on Disciplined Forces Day or on elections day,” he said last evening in a televised programme, ‘News in Conversation’, aired on the National Communications Network (NCN).

 

APNU member, James Bond

APNU member, James Bond

 

Hunt made it clear that anything other than what is officially released from the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) falls into the realm of speculation.


“Anything else is foolish…the way the system is set up, there is no statically valid way to know,” Hunt said, acknowledging the recent debacle involving member of A Partnership for National Unity and the Alliance For Change (APNU+AFC), James Bond.


Bond, last Saturday, posted on Facebook “An example of what occurred today (yesterday) at Whim Police Station…total number of voters 165….number of votes cast 147…..APNU+AFC 140…..PPP 7…”


According to Hunt, the elections law does not allow for anyone in or near a polling station to ask a voter how did you vote.


“That is how an exit poll is done. You have to either be very close to a polling station or inside a polling station,” he said.


The ChargÉ d’Affaires added, “If you are not allowed to be there, you cannot do a credible poll…so to throw out a number, there is no way for anyone to know that until the results are there.…it does not do any good to anyone for speculation to be thrown out there.”


Hunt stated that such acts can lead to unrealistic expectations from political parties’ support bases and also translate into a rejection of the official results.


“Patience is the watchword,” he stressed, adding that only the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) has the responsibility to declare the results.


SEVERAL PROVISIONS
Meanwhile, Attorney General, Anil Nandlall, in an invited comment, explained that there is not one law, but a combination of legal provisions which repose the authority with GECOM relative to the declaration of the election results.


He said, “The electoral laws of Guyana and the Constitution reside in GECOM, the exclusive authority and mandate to administer the conduct of General and Regional elections in Guyana. An important part of that mandate is the receipt , compilation, tabulation and disclosure of the result of those elections. Only GECOM has such a mandate in law.


“Any attempt by any person to do so will be a violation of the letter and spirit of the law and the constitution, which places that responsibility with GECOM. One would expect that a politician who was a Member of Parliament (MP), and moreover, an attorney-at-law, would be familiar with such elementary principles.”


As such, he deemed Bond’s comments as irresponsible. “James Bond has recklessly violated the provisions which were put in place to protect the sanctity of the Disciplined Services ballot,” he said.


Nandlall added, “In every democracy, secrecy of the ballot is sacred and sacrosanct. Those are the sentiments which inspired the results of voting by ranks of the Disciplined Services to be withheld and merged with those of civilian voters casting their ballots on Election Day.

 

AG and Minister of Legal Affairs, Anil Nandlall

AG and Minister of Legal Affairs, Anil Nandlall

 

“Significantly, this was not always the position; in 1997, tensions arose in the society after the results of the Disciplined Services’ vote and those of civilian Guyanese were declared separately and the nation was made aware of how the Disciplined Services voted. A very violent period which followed those elections.”


CONDEMNED
Brigadier Mark Phillips, in his capacity as Chairman of the Joint Services, was among the many who condemned Bond’s action in the strongest possible way.


He said, “This is distasteful at best and extremely irresponsible behaviour by a former member of Parliament, given that there is no way the results of any polling place of today’s Joint Services voting can be known.


“The Joint Services is therefore calling on the authorities at GECOM to explain to the public whether there exists any possibility for a process they assured the nation would be secret to have been made public.


“This development is extremely worrying since Mr Bond, an Attorney and Candidate on the APNU+AFC list, is expected to exercise good judgment in all matters pertaining to the electorate and the electoral process, and not seek in any way to incite mayhem among the populace.”

 

By Vanessa Narine

Replies sorted oldest to newest

Of course, it is possible to do exit polls. Man the statical methods are not that difficult. Why the bellyaching over this matter? Do some people have bad intentions? CNN does it brilliantly, so does Nate Silver.

FM
Originally Posted by TK:

Of course, it is possible to do exit polls. Man the statical methods are not that difficult. Why the bellyaching over this matter? Do some people have bad intentions? CNN does it brilliantly, so does Nate Silver.

PPP looking for an excuse to cry foul since they know they losing the elections.  The latest poll as at Monday May 4th, 2015 has the PPP at 45 percent.  How the scrunt they will get 50% when the Coalition already at 51%?

 

Only 4 percent of Guyana in play now and the PPP cannot get all and even if they secure all they cannot pass 50%.

FM
Originally Posted by Demerara_Guy:

While on can speculate on exit polls, the actual results are the one provided by the official organisation after the actual assessments.

Thank you Captain Obvious.

Mars
Originally Posted by Demerara_Guy:

While on can speculate on exit polls, the actual results are the one provided by the official organisation after the actual assessments.

Well...Duh!!!

FM
Originally Posted by Brian Teekah:
Originally Posted by TK:

Of course, it is possible to do exit polls. Man the statical methods are not that difficult. Why the bellyaching over this matter? Do some people have bad intentions? CNN does it brilliantly, so does Nate Silver.

PPP looking for an excuse to cry foul since they know they losing the elections.  The latest poll as at Monday May 4th, 2015 has the PPP at 45 percent.  How the scrunt they will get 50% when the Coalition already at 51%?

 

Only 4 percent of Guyana in play now and the PPP cannot get all and even if they secure all they cannot pass 50%.

 

Look at dis liard daag hey. The Coalition and the PPP are BOTH tied at 45% with 10% of the voters listed as "undecided" and them are INDIANS. I'm sure you think the Indians are all gonna run to vote PNC. A hesitant Indian is a reluctant PPP voter dumbass. Past experience not wishful thinking.

FM
Originally Posted by Shaitaan:
 

 

Look at dis liard daag hey. The Coalition and the PPP are BOTH tied at 45% with 10% of the voters listed as "undecided" and them are INDIANS. I'm sure you think the Indians are all gonna run to vote PNC. A hesitant Indian is a reluctant PPP voter dumbass. Past experience not wishful thinking.


So enjoy the last apan jhat election. What are your plans next time when there arent enough Indo votes for this to work?

FM

Reading the news and social media comments, I think there isn't yet a general acceptance of exit polls in Guyana. And, having regard to a potential volatile atmosphere on the evening of May 11, exit poll results could spark an unwanted conflagration.

APNU+AFC should concentrate its efforts on getting a big turnout of voters/supporters and carefully watch the vote count after.

If exit poll results will cause confusion, refrain from them. A few hours' wait won't hurt. APNU+AFC will win. Don't complicate the victory.

FM
Originally Posted by Gilbakka:

Reading the news and social media comments, I think there isn't yet a general acceptance of exit polls in Guyana. And, having regard to a potential volatile atmosphere on the evening of May 11, exit poll results could spark an unwanted conflagration.

APNU+AFC should concentrate its efforts on getting a big turnout of voters/supporters and carefully watch the vote count after.

If exit poll results will cause confusion, refrain from them. A few hours' wait won't hurt. APNU+AFC will win. Don't complicate the victory.

PPP ain't getting this one,they will have to retool and come

back.

Django
Originally Posted by Gilbakka:

 

If exit poll results will cause confusion, refrain from them. A few hours' wait won't hurt. APNU+AFC will win. Don't complicate the victory.


They need to focus on ensuring that the ballots are protected and the voting is accurate.  Exit polls even in the USA can be inaccurate.  I do not see how they can be more accurate in Guyana, especially in a country as polarized as it is.  Will people tell the truth or repeat what they think that the questioner wants to hear?

FM
Originally Posted by Gilbakka:

PNU+AFC will win.

Simple the expectations of numerous individuals.

 

PPP/C, however, will gain the most votes to again form the government based on the May 11, 2015 elections.

FM

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